Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman returns to the White House on Tuesday for his first visit to Washington since 2018, during President Donald Trump's first term.
US-Saudi relations nosedived under former president Joe Biden, who vowed to make Riyadh a "pariah" over human rights concerns. But Mr Trump reset relations in May, when he received an enthusiastic welcome during a trip to Saudi Arabia in which Riyadh committed to investing $600 billion in the US over four years.
This week's White House meeting will focus on security, technology deals and regional politics, with Mr Trump keen to persuade Saudi Arabia to establish relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords.
Riyadh, however, has said ties with Israel hinged on a credible pathway to a Palestinian state and broader regional security.
"Palestine is not just about Palestinian self-determination, it's really about the de-radicalising and stabilising the entire region," said Gregory Gause, visiting scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington. "And they don't see a prosperous region without Israel and Palestine being somehow integrated into this new order."
Prince Mohammed's visit to Washington comes amid a historic economic transformation for Saudi Arabia, which is in the process of diversifying its economy away from oil as part of its Vision 2030 programme.
Economic agenda
Saudi Arabia's economy has undergone a momentous shift since Prince Mohammed last visited Washington. More women are now in the workforce and the tourism sector is expanding.
It has also deepened its investment ties with the US. A Saudi-US Investment Forum held at the John F Kennedy Centre for Performing Arts on Wednesday is expected to build on the investment forum held in Riyadh in May.
The most notable investment since then has been the leveraged buyout of EA Games. The deal was led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, private equity firm Silver Lake and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners.
Saudi AI startup Humain also announced a $3 billion commitment with Blackstone-backed AirTrunk to establish data centres.
Meanwhile, Hilton announced it is building another hotel in Riyadh and Delta airlines will begin offering direct flights from its Atlanta hub to the Saudi capital early next year.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Yasir Al Rumayyan, who leads the PIF, last week, one of several high-level cabinet discussions that took place in Washington before Prince Mohammed's arrival. According to a Treasury readout, Mr Bessent said the two discussed ways in which the Saudi wealth fund can boost investment into the US.
Mr Al Rumayyan previewed a new long-term investment strategy for the PIF during a Washington event in September. He said it is investing about 80 per cent of its capital locally, with the rest going abroad, and noted the sovereign wealth fund is eager to secure co-investments with international partners to bring money back to the kingdom.
But lower oil prices have put pressure on the kingdom's deficit. Riyadh estimates its 2025 fiscal deficit at 5.3 per cent of GDP, higher than previously forecast, according to the Ministry of Finance's 2026 pre-budget statement. The kingdom projected the 2026 deficit at 3.3 per cent of GDP.
"Saudi Arabia doesn't have a huge capacity to invest large amounts in the US in the way that Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE do because it's focused on investing domestically," said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics and a non-resident fellow a the Baker Institute.
Rachel Ziemba, founder of geopolitical risk firm Ziemba Insights, said there was potential tension for Saudi Arabia as it seeks to attract foreign investment and technology transfers while being less able to invest in the US at the scale that the Trump administration hopes.
"This world of urgent economic development and job creation has come at the same time as lower oil prices and stagnant oil revenues," she said. "The financial math around the pledges to invest in the United States or to invest new money in the United States doesn't add up to me."
Security ties
While Mr Trump remains focused on investments and the expansion of the Abraham Accords, a top priority for the Crown Prince is a concrete gesture of US support for Riyadh's security.
A legally binding mutual defence treaty would require ratification by the US Senate, currently unlikely to pass.
Officials say the agreement would have much of the substance of a treaty, albeit without the guarantees of commitment under future American administrations.
"The Saudis have correctly read the situation in the United States right now, so they're going to go for the best that they can get under under President Trump," said Kristin Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute. "What they really want is something that goes beyond deterrence to an actual partnership on the ground where they can really feel that they have that the United States has their back."
The agreement is similar to the executive order Mr Trump issued in late September, guaranteeing Qatar’s security, including by taking military action if the country comes under attack. That order came weeks after after Israel launched an air strike against Hamas leaders in Qatar, rattling the region.
Saudi Arabia is also pushing for a new weapons package, that includes dozens of F-35 fighter jets.
They are also considering a civil nuclear co-operation deal that would see the US offering technical assistance towards the research and development of nuclear power in the kingdom.
Having nuclear backing, Ms Diwan says, could strengthen the kingdom's hand in security equation with Iran, whose own nuclear programme has been significantly weakened following US strikes on its facilities in June.
A US-Saudi security pact and the nuclear development project have been in the works for years.
And while the headlines are going to be about the security agreement, nuclear negotiations, and large commercial deals, the Crown Prince is looking for the Trump administration to pave the way for the kingdom to play a bigger role in the region, particularly in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and in Gaza.
