Syria faces growing obstacles to stabilising its fragmented political landscape, experts said on Wednesday, as governance disputes in the Kurdish-led north-east, Druze unrest in Sweida and rising tension with Israel converge in a trio of existential challenges.
The experts, speaking at the Middle East Institute in Washington, warned that without progress on each front, President Ahmad Al Shara’s transitional government will struggle to consolidate control.
Charles Lister, senior fellow at MEI, said the trajectory of Damascus hinges almost entirely on how those three issues evolve over the next 12 months.
“Ultimately, it still comes down to these thorny issues, which are existential for the transition in Syria – the SDF [Syrian Democratic Forces], Sweida and Israel,” he said. “If those three issues are not resolved in 2026, Syria will be in a much trickier place than it is right now, especially the Israel one, which is heading in very dangerous directions, with ministers now saying publicly we’re heading towards war.”
The warning comes amid rising volatility along the Israeli-Syrian frontier. Israel has carried out repeated incursions into Syrian territory since the toppling of long-time ruler Bashar Al Assad a year ago, as well as carrying out bombings, and has said it wants a demilitarised zone in the country's south.
Mr Al Shara warned on Saturday that Israel's demand for a demilitarised zone in southern Syria would endanger his country and called for Israel to respect a 1974 disengagement agreement.
US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing for a security pact between Israel and Syria, told Israel last week to avoid destabilising Syria and its new leadership.
Exchanges of fire and increasingly belligerent rhetoric from senior Israeli officials have stirred fears of a broader confrontation – one that could not only undermine Damascus’s fragile hold at home but also disrupt diplomatic groundwork for political negotiations.
Barbara Leaf, former US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, described 2026 as “the critical year” for addressing Syria’s most destabilising pressures.
“The Israelis have got to be corralled into doing a proper security framework with Damascus, lest they really destabilise the country,” she said. “And then comes the integration piece with Sweida and the north-east right behind it.”
SDF concerns
But progress on those fronts appears distant. Former US ambassador to Syria Robert Ford said the stalemate between Damascus and the Kurdish-dominated autonomous administration in the north-east highlights the obstacles ahead.
The SDF and Damascus agreed in March to integrate the Kurdish-led force into Syria’s national army, a key step towards unifying the country’s fractured security landscape.
Syrian authorities have long said that the SDF has failed to take steps to implement the March 10 agreement to integrate the group into state institutions.
US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper, who addressed the event virtually, noted that Washington “stands ready to support” continuing talks, including through recent engagements in Damascus.
“SDF's successful integration with the Syrian government forces will lead to a more predictable and stable security environment,” he said.
Mr Ford argued that he does not see how Damascus and the autonomous administration are “going to come to an agreement”.
“It’s not moving, and Turkey is certainly not going to be the mediator,” he said.
He said Washington will need a deeper diplomatic footprint if it expects to influence outcomes.
“There’s really only one country I could imagine that would be the mediator. It’s obvious, but you can’t do that with periodic visits, where you drop in,” he said. “You need staff on the ground, both in Hasakah and Raqqa, where the autonomous administration institutions are, and also in Damascus, all communicating with each other and with Washington.”
Ms Leaf echoed that view, saying Washington needs a “platform for our presence”. That, she added, “is the US Embassy. We should not dither around for a year or let it fall into the clutches of people who are looking at it only through the security prism.”
Mr Lister said US diplomacy must also push the SDF and the government to abandon the notion that time is on their side.
“The north-east is not in a great place, and the situation in Sweida is very untenable right now,” he said, citing spikes of violence in coastal regions in March and in Sweida in July. “Fundamentally, both were driven by politics, not sect.”
He added that US officials increasingly believe elements within the SDF are obstructing the implementation of understandings reached with Damascus.
“To be blunt, the SDF has been digging tunnels in every single urban centre of north-east Syria for the last nine months,” said Mr Lister. “The message that sends when you then send a delegation to Damascus to negotiate your integration is confusing, to say the least.”
Such actions, he added, underscore the political drift that could define Syria’s next year unless the country’s rival power centres, and their foreign backers, begin treating 2026 as a deadline rather than another year for delay.
In early November, an MEI delegation led by retired Gen Joseph Votel visited Damascus to meet senior government officials and observe conditions in post-Assad Syria. The delegation said the Syrians had acknowledged that only the US — either directly via pressure from Central Command or from the Trump White House — has the "necessary leverage to drive a final agreement with the SDF".
