Recently, in response to questions about the Obama administration’s disengagement from the Middle East, a former American official visiting Beirut offered his interpretation. Though he was not necessarily advocating Washington’s actions, what he presented revealed the incomprehensibility of the American strategy towards Iran and the Arab world, Syria in particular.
Explaining why the United States had not exploited the opportunity to severely weaken Iran in the Levant by helping to push President Bashar Al Assad out of office in 2011 and 2012, the former official presented what, by now, has become a familiar refrain: the administration, facing a major economic crisis, did not have the latitude or desire to act in Syria.
Moreover, in this regard the American public was unwilling to approve of any intervention in the Arab world, even if there were many more options than deploying ground troops.
When asked about whether the US viewed Iran as a strategic rival in the Middle East, the official said it did. In other words, there is clear recognition in Washington of the power stakes in the region and no effort to minimise this.
When the former official was queried about whether a nuclear deal with Iran might open the door to a broader American dialogue with the Islamic Republic over regional issues, the answer was "probably not". With American midterm elections looming and suspicion of Iran high in Congress, anything seen as ignoring the Iranian danger could hurt President Barack Obama.
There was nothing here that hadn’t been said before. And yet, putting the implications together, what was the message? That the Obama administration does view Iran as a major foe in the Middle East, but that it preferred to do nothing about it in Syria (though it was willing to make an effort in Libya). That while Mr Obama today considers terrorism emanating from Syria as a major threat to America, he failed to fill the dangerous vacuum in the country when he was specifically warned that it might lead to the emergence of jihadist groups.
The former official had a point in saying that once engaged in Syria, the US could not simply hand the problem off to someone else once its goals were achieved, namely Mr Al Assad’s removal. The complexity of the Syrian situation meant that some sort of medium-term commitment was necessary.
Perhaps, but the impression was that the Obama administration is mostly unwilling to make any effort in the region, even if this has negative strategic implications. There is a great disconnect between the perceived importance of the regional challenge posed by Iran and America’s willingness to respond to it.
It has often been said that the Iranians play chess while the Americans play checkers. But these days, the Obama administration seems hardly to be playing at all. Even though it is in dire financial straits, Iran has gone all the way on behalf of Mr Al Assad. The Obama administration, though assisting the Syrian opposition would have cost much less, refused to do so.
Syria may be more vital to Iran than it is to America, but that again raises the initial question: What is the Obama administration’s assessment of Iranian power in the region? If Iran has to be contained – and negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme suggests it does – then can this be done if the US is so reluctant to take on any regional responsibility?
The lack of commitment on the part of Mr Obama – indeed, what appears to be his utter lack of interest – will have profound implications for the Middle East in the foreseeable future and perhaps beyond. America’s allies are already preparing for a post-American period in the region, with some even wondering whether it is not time to arrive at some sort of understanding with Iran.
As long as the Saudis and other Gulf countries view Iranian influence as an existential threat, such a process may be limited. But even Saudi Arabia seems to have accepted the implications of American abandonment – and that word is not too strong. The recent Saudi invitation to Iran’s foreign minister to visit the kingdom may be the first step in an effort to peacefully coexist with the Islamic Republic in light of this.
In Lebanon, similar dynamics may also take shape. In lieu of open-ended confrontation, the Sunni community, following the Saudi lead if the kingdom warms up to Iran, may see a similar benefit in improving relations with Hizbollah. The formation of a national-unity government earlier this year, apparently sanctioned by the Saudis and Iranians, showed the relative advantages of a process of sectarian normalisation.
But one should not be naive. There is nothing heartfelt in adapting to a new reality of power in the region. Quite simply, America’s allies in the region believe that the Obama administration has no will to pursue its obvious interests, and therefore they are going their own way. And when they hear Washington’s weak rationale for its minimalism, this only confirms to them that the US is not likely to soon change.
Is that what Mr Obama wants? Does he feel that America has entered a new phase in the region and that there is no going back to the past? American officials may not admit as much, but the Arab states have already made up their mind. Iran is making headway and no one can rely on America to prevent this.
Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Beirut
On Twitter: @BeirutCalling
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Sector: FinTech, wealth management
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Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Most wanted allegations
- Benjamin Macann, 32: involvement in cocaine smuggling gang.
- Jack Mayle, 30: sold drugs from a phone line called the Flavour Quest.
- Callum Halpin, 27: over the 2018 murder of a rival drug dealer.
- Asim Naveed, 29: accused of being the leader of a gang that imported cocaine.
- Calvin Parris, 32: accused of buying cocaine from Naveed and selling it on.
- John James Jones, 31: allegedly stabbed two people causing serious injuries.
- Callum Michael Allan, 23: alleged drug dealing and assaulting an emergency worker.
- Dean Garforth, 29: part of a crime gang that sold drugs and guns.
- Joshua Dillon Hendry, 30: accused of trafficking heroin and crack cocain.
- Mark Francis Roberts, 28: grievous bodily harm after a bungled attempt to steal a £60,000 watch.
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- Nana Oppong, 41: shot a man eight times in a suspected gangland reprisal attack.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Newcastle Falcons 5
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New Zealand
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A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Du Plessis plans his retirement
South Africa captain Faf du Plessis said on Friday the Twenty20 World Cup in Australia in two years' time will be his last.
Du Plessis, 34, who has led his country in two World T20 campaigns, in 2014 and 2016, is keen to play a third but will then step aside.
"The T20 World Cup in 2020 is something I'm really looking forward to. I think right now that will probably be the last tournament for me," he said in Brisbane ahead of a one-off T20 against Australia on Saturday.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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