Philippines Vice President Sara Duterte greets her father, outgoing president Rodrigo Duterte, and her mother, Elizabeth Zimmerman, during her inauguration ceremony in Davao City in June 2022. EPA
Philippines Vice President Sara Duterte greets her father, outgoing president Rodrigo Duterte, and her mother, Elizabeth Zimmerman, during her inauguration ceremony in Davao City in June 2022. EPA
Philippines Vice President Sara Duterte greets her father, outgoing president Rodrigo Duterte, and her mother, Elizabeth Zimmerman, during her inauguration ceremony in Davao City in June 2022. EPA
Richard Javad Heydarian is a Manila-based academic, columnist and author
December 14, 2023
In The Autumn of the Patriarch, the novelist Gabriel Garcia Marquez wrote about the twilight years of a fading strongman, who struggled to come to grips with his gradual fall from grace.
Here was a man who was once “so overwhelmed by that outpouring of love [from the people]” that he couldn’t stop admonishing his praetorian guards for keeping him away from his adoring fans. Towards the winter of his life, however, people came to see the “sight of the sunset old man who was contemplating the waterfront with the saddest look in the world”.
Marquez wrote that novel during his exile in Spain under the shadow of a crumbling Franco dictatorship. But his haunting novel, considered “a poem on the solitude of power”, also aptly describes the current state of the Philippines’ most popular president in recent memory, Rodrigo Duterte.
By all accounts, the visibly ageing and increasingly frail former president – who was once hailed as the “Father” (Tatay) of the nation – is now a shell of his former self.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Vice President Sara Duterte at his inauguration ceremony in Manila. AP
In a bizarre twist of events, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the namesake son of a former dictator, has emerged as the greatest threat to the once powerful Duterte dynasty. And amid an intensifying power struggle between the two camps, the former president is now facing the prospect of several court trials, including by the International Criminal Court, for his alleged human rights violations.
What is at stake is nothing less than the soul of Philippines’ besieged democracy.
Just a year ago, the “UniTeam” between the Marcos and Duterte dynasties seemed invincible. The tandem, composed of Mr Marcos Jr and former presidential daughter, Sara Duterte, who ran as Vice President, cruised through the 2022 elections with the highest margins in contemporary Philippine history.
They won close to 60 per cent of all votes – making them the first-ever tandem to win a clear majority in the Philippines’ single-round, first-past-the-post electoral system. Their closest rivals barely won more than 20 per cent of the votes. It was not even close, yet quite paradoxically, this outcome was far from predetermined.
Just months ahead of the elections, it was Ms Duterte, not Mr Marcos Jr, who was leading the polls of presidential candidates. In contrast, Mr Marcos Jr, who had narrowly lost a vice-presidential race in 2016, barely managed to get about 15 per cent of the votes in pre-election surveys.
Not unlike Marquez’s protagonist, Mr Duterte is confronting a steady and seemingly irreversible fall from grace
In fact, he spent years in political wilderness. Once, his elder sister, Imee, lamented that her brother was “jobless” and was “dying to work” in government while unsuccessfully seeking to overturn his election defeat.
The Marcoses, however, would get their break in late-2021, when both the liberal opposition and the pro-Duterte camps struggled to agree on their preferred presidential candidates. This provided a perfect opening for Mr Marcos Jr to engineer his return to power in style.
Former president Rodrigo Duterte, pictured in 2018, began to strike back as his successor chipped away at his policy legacies. AFP
Thanks to mediation by stalwarts, most notably former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Ms Duterte decided to run as Mr Marcos Jr’s vice-presidential running mate. In exchange, they expected political gratitude from, if not a servile partner, the next president.
They couldn’t have been more mistaken. As soon as Mr Marcos Jr won the presidency, he began to sing a different tune. His first major move was to deny his key patrons any major position in his administration.
Despite her public expression of interest, Ms Duterte wasn’t given the prized position of Defence Secretary. Meanwhile, Ms Arroyo was snubbed in favour of Mr Marcos Jr’s first cousin, Martin Romualdez, for the leadership of the House of Representatives.
Over the next year, Mr Marcos Jr chipped away at key Duterte policy legacies by, among other things, drawing down his predecessor’s deadly “drug war” and, crucially, adopting an increasingly West-friendly and Sino-sceptic foreign policy. In contrast to the Beijing-friendly Duterte administration, he adopted a tougher stance in the South China Sea disputes, expanded America’s access to Philippine military bases, and pulled his country out of projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.
When pro-Duterte allies tried to push back by allegedly organising a plot to oust Mr Romualdez as the Speaker, they faced stiff resistance. The upshot was the demotion of Ms Arroyo in the ranks of House leadership, triggering a public feud between Mr Romualdez and Ms Duterte.
Unable to appreciate the new state of affairs, an ageing yet still influential Mr Duterte began to strike back with growing ferocity. He challenged his successor’s foreign policy by unilaterally arranging a special meeting with China’s leadership in Beijing. But tensions reached new heights when his daughter was stripped of special confidential funds by Marcos allies in the legislature.
Refusing to stand idly by, the former president criticised the legislature, calling it a “rotten” institution, prompting further defections from party-mates, who had begun joining the pro-Marcos camp en masse. Philippine courts also began handing favourable rulings to top Duterte critics, most notably Nobel Laureate journalist Maria Ressa and former senator and justice secretary Leila Delima.
Characteristically stubborn and perilously tone-deaf, the pro-Duterte camp escalated its attack on pro-Marcos legislators. Although the notoriously conflict-avoidant incumbent tried to once again project a united front, downplaying feuds within the governing coalition, there are increasing signs that a wholesale crackdown on the Dutertes could be in the offing.
To begin with, Ms Duterte is facing potential impeachment proceedings in the legislature, which is also exploring possible revocation of the broadcasting franchise of a staunchly pro-Duterte news channel for allegedly spreading “fake news”. In an utter state of desperation, the former president has threatened to run for high office in coming elections in order to confront the Marcos Jr administration and protect his camp.
But the Duterte dynasty faces an even more grim prospect.
In a potential policy shift with major implications, the Marcos Jr administration has indicated its openness to allowing the ICC to investigate the former president and his colleagues, who face allegations of overseeing extrajudicial killings in the past. Pro-Marcos legislators have openly called on the government to co-operate with the international court.
Meanwhile, Mr Duterte also faces criminal complaints for allegedly threatening certain members of the legislature in public. Not unlike Marquez’s protagonist, Mr Duterte is confronting a steady and seemingly irreversible fall from grace. But he is unlikely to go gently into the night; if anything, he is expected to up the ante and defy an increasingly inauspicious political landscape.
Much, however, will depend on Mr Marcos Jr, who now holds all the cards. Should he co-operate with the ICC and support his legislative allies’ plans against the Dutertes, he may end up politically eliminating a once-powerful dynasty that its critics have long viewed to be among the biggest threats to Asia’s oldest liberal democracy.
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Tottenham 0-1 Ajax, Tuesday
Second leg
Ajax v Tottenham, Wednesday, May 8, 11pm
Game is on BeIN Sports
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
INDIA SQUADS
India squad for third Test against Sri Lanka
Virat Kohli (capt), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Shikhar Dhawan, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Wriddhiman Saha, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Vijay Shankar
India squad for ODI series against Sri Lanka
Rohit Sharma (capt), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Siddarth Kaul
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Abu Dhabi Grand Slam Jiu-Jitsu World Tour Calendar 2018/19
July 29: OTA Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan
Sep 22-23: LA Convention Centre in Los Angeles, US
Nov 16-18: Carioca Arena Centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Sunday, January 20
3pm: Jordan v Vietnam at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
6pm: Thailand v China at Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: Iran v Oman at Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Monday, January 21
3pm: Japan v Saudi Arabia at Sharjah Stadium
6pm: Australia v Uzbekistan at Khalifa bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: UAE v Kyrgyzstan at Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tuesday, January 22
5pm: South Korea v Bahrain at Rashid Stadium, Dubai
8pm: Qatar v Iraq at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi
'Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower'
Michael Beckley, Cornell Press
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Major honours
ARSENAL
FA Cup - 2005
BARCELONA
La Liga - 2013
Copa del Rey - 2012
Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
Premier League - 2015, 2017
FA Cup - 2018
League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
World Cup - 2010
European Championship - 2008, 2012
MATCH INFO
World Cup qualifier
Thailand 2 (Dangda 26', Panya 51')
UAE 1 (Mabkhout 45 2')
Venom
Director: Ruben Fleischer
Cast: Tom Hardy, Michelle Williams, Riz Ahmed
Rating: 1.5/5
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
Priority access to new homes from participating developers
Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
Flexible payment plans from developers
Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
'Spies in Disguise'
Director: Nick Bruno and Troy Quane
Stars: Will Smith, Tom Holland, Karen Gillan and Roshida Jones
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11 What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time. TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at. Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti withCoastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
