Democrats are still reeling from the shock of losing to Donald Trump for the second time in the past three elections. There’s quite a bit of finger-pointing and soul-searching still taking place, with both journalists and activists writing “autopsies” to understand both the reasons for the defeat and what lessons can be learnt moving forward.
I would be more supportive and less sceptical about the merits of some of these exercises were it not for two reasons. In the first place, most of these autopsies will be focused too narrowly on this election, as if the problems faced just emerged this year. Secondly, if past is prologue, these “studies” will most likely be read by a few, then shelved and forgotten.
In fact, any serious analysis seeking to understand what happened on November 5 must begin with the recognition that the seeds of this year’s Democratic defeat were planted decades ago and are now bearing fruit.
A few weeks ago, I wrote my own finger-pointing exercise, but now want to look more deeply into the forces that have come to shape the contours of our political landscape. Here are some of these factors:
Profound political, social, cultural and economic changes in American life have left millions of voters unsettled, insecure and angry. Unmoored, they are looking for certainty. In other similar moments in history, populations shaken by such dislocations have turned to forms of fundamentalism – finding certainty in a mythic glorious past – or to “strong leaders” who they felt understood their plight.
Trump freed himself from the consultant class, instead acting on gut instinct. Voters read this as authentic
In addition to these societal changes, deep scars have been left on Americans’ psyche by dramatic, transformative events. The terror attacks of 9/11 and failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan left Americans feeling vulnerable and seeing their country’s stature in the world diminished. Add to this the economic collapse of 2008-2009 that shattered confidence in the American dream, all-too-frequent horrific mass shootings and traumatic impacts of Covid-19, and you have a society on edge waiting for “the other shoe to drop”.
Given this context, political leadership’s response to the unsettled electorate is important. For their part, Republicans have had some success in exploiting and expanding the fear. From Richard Nixon’s presidency until today, a constant thread in the Republican playbook has been preying on voters’ fears and insecurities. For example, early targets were "black" welfare recipients or criminals. President-elect Donald Trump has expanded the list to include immigrants, particularly Mexicans and Muslims, the “deep state”, and pretty much any group who challenges him. Mr Trump has wielded the “fear of ‘them’” as a potent weapon to super-charge his campaign against opponents.
Democrats, on the other hand, have appeared disconnected from the challenges faced by most voters. Instead of speaking directly to their pain, Democrats talked about the programmes they’ve launched, the progress they’ve made in creating jobs, saving the environment, protecting women’s healthcare choices and the need for a balanced approach to immigration. While all true, these discourses on policy have sounded “wonky”, making Democrats sound out of touch, dismissive or even patronising.
What voters have wanted is to know that candidates understand their insecurities and anger. The Democrats who’ve been effective at doing this have been those to whom voters could relate. Barack Obama was able to turn voters from fear to hope. Joe Biden, and even Bernie Sanders (though not in the presidential race), were successful because they showed voters that they too were angry at income inequality and loss of jobs and promised to fight for them.
The bottom line has been that voters needed to know that those who are going to lead them understand their situation.
For the first three quarters of the past century, Democrats operated according to a simple philosophy. As the party that supported economic justice for workers, they believed government had a role to play, as my mother would say, “to lend a helping hand to those who can’t lift themselves up”. Republicans, on the other hand, were the party that protected the rich. Their motto was “lower taxes, less government”.
This has changed. As a Republican senator recently boasted, “We have become the party of the working class, while Democrats are the party of the elites.” They aren’t, but that’s the perception they’ve successfully created.
How did it happen? Ask a Democrat today what the party stands for and you won’t get my mother’s bumper sticker answer. Instead, you’ll get a lecture on a range of social issues with no thread connecting them or making them relevant to working-class voters.
Republicans, on the other hand, when asked them they stand for, won’t say lower taxes. Instead, they’ll pull out Mr Trump’s list of “boogiemen” and Democrats’ cultural issues that they hate. Or they’ll simply say: “Make America Great Again” – a catch-all phrase evoking a return to past “glory” with all that it implies, or fighting against the social ills of culture change for which Democrats advocate, or simply a defence of Mr Trump against his foes. As one of the more successful Republican TV ads said: "Kamala is for They/Them" while "President Trump is for you”.
There was a time when political parties drove politics and were real organisations, from the local to the state to the national level. People belonged to a party. That is no longer the case. Today, parties are fundraising vehicles, amassing fortunes to pay for consultants, who run the campaigns and oftentimes the parties as well. While many voters contribute small sums, major donors contribute seven- and eight-figure amounts.
The problem with the Democratic consultants is that they are the same cast of characters who’ve been running and ruining politics for decades – following the same playbook and lacking any appreciation for changes in the electorate. They lack imagination and are risk-averse, tying candidates up in knots with cautions about what they can and shouldn’t say.
Mr Trump, however, freed himself from the Republicans’ consultant class, sidelining them and instead acting on gut instinct. Voters have read this as authentic.
What played out in this election were themes and behaviours that have been brewing for decades. Unless Democrats take a long hard look at how and why they’ve lost the connection with working-class voters and allowed consultants to take control of the party’s and their candidates’ messaging and outreach, the defeat of November 5 may well be repeated.
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The biog
Hometown: Birchgrove, Sydney Australia
Age: 59
Favourite TV series: Outlander Netflix series
Favourite place in the UAE: Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque / desert / Louvre Abu Dhabi
Favourite book: Father of our Nation: Collected Quotes of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan
Thing you will miss most about the UAE: My friends and family, Formula 1, having Friday's off, desert adventures, and Arabic culture and people
What is safeguarding?
“Safeguarding, not just in sport, but in all walks of life, is making sure that policies are put in place that make sure your child is safe; when they attend a football club, a tennis club, that there are welfare officers at clubs who are qualified to a standard to make sure your child is safe in that environment,” Derek Bell explains.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jack Butland, Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope
Defenders: John Stones, Harry Maguire, Phil Jones, Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier, Gary Cahill, Ashley Young, Danny Rose, Trent Alexander-Arnold
Midfielders: Eric Dier, Jordan Henderson, Dele Alli, Jesse Lingard, Raheem Sterling, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Fabian Delph
Forwards: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck
The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
The Bloomberg Billionaire Index in full
1 Jeff Bezos $140 billion
2 Bill Gates $98.3 billion
3 Bernard Arnault $83.1 billion
4 Warren Buffett $83 billion
5 Amancio Ortega $67.9 billion
6 Mark Zuckerberg $67.3 billion
7 Larry Page $56.8 billion
8 Larry Ellison $56.1 billion
9 Sergey Brin $55.2 billion
10 Carlos Slim $55.2 billion
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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Favourite things
Luxury: Enjoys window shopping for high-end bags and jewellery
Discount: She works in luxury retail, but is careful about spending, waits for sales, festivals and only buys on discount
University: The only person in her family to go to college, Jiang secured a bachelor’s degree in business management in China
Masters: Studying part-time for a master’s degree in international business marketing in Dubai
Vacation: Heads back home to see family in China
Community work: Member of the Chinese Business Women’s Association of the UAE to encourage other women entrepreneurs
The Bio
Favourite holiday destination: Either Kazakhstan or Montenegro. I’ve been involved in events in both countries and they are just stunning.
Favourite book: I am a huge of Robin Cook’s medical thrillers, which I suppose is quite apt right now. My mother introduced me to them back home in New Zealand.
Favourite film or television programme: Forrest Gump is my favourite film, that’s never been up for debate. I love watching repeats of Mash as well.
Inspiration: My late father moulded me into the man I am today. I would also say disappointment and sadness are great motivators. There are times when events have brought me to my knees but it has also made me determined not to let them get the better of me.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The specs: 2018 Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross
Price, base / as tested: Dh101,140 / Dh113,800
Engine: Turbocharged 1.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 148hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm @ 2,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed CVT
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Company profile
Date started: December 24, 2018
Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer
Based: Dubai Media City
Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)
Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech
Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year
Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 194hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 275Nm from 2,000-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: from Dh155,000
On sale: now
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
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