The term "bi-globalisation" has taken centre stage at the ongoing Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, emerging as one of the year’s most discussed concepts. Highlighted in WEF’s Global Risk Report, this paradigm reflects the reality of a fragmented global system dominated by the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. Brazilian diplomat Braz Baracuhy’s compelling framework captures this transition from the unipolar post-Cold War era to a world defined by dual centres of power.
Adding another layer to this evolving landscape is the growing prominence of Brics, the recently expanded coalition of emerging markets. Last month, Nigeria quietly announced its decision to join Brics, further consolidating a bloc that now encompasses some of the world’s most dynamic economies. Together, Brics represents a significant share of global GDP and population, signalling a shift in the world’s economy. Today, more than 50 per cent of global GDP is generated by emerging markets, with Asia alone home to more than half the world’s population. This redistribution of influence underscores the necessity of navigating the bi-global era with agility and foresight.
The globalization of the post-Cold War period, epitomised by Thomas Friedman’s vision of a "flat" world, was characterised by the expansion of global supply chains, the dominance of multinational corporations and interdependence among economies. However, cracks in this model began to show with the 2008 financial crisis, rising protectionism and China’s meteoric economic ascent. Far from marking the end of globalisation, these developments heralded a new era, bi-globalisation, defined by two competing poles of influence.
Under the Trump administration, economic decoupling from China will likely intensify, emphasising domestic manufacturing and trade competition. On the other hand, China has cemented its global position through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and technological investments in AI, 5G and quantum computing. The resulting bifurcation forces countries, companies, and individuals to navigate the complexities of two divergent systems.
But while bi-globalisation introduces challenges, it also presents significant opportunities for nations and businesses that can skilfully balance between the poles.
Nations such as India, Brazil and members of the EU are adopting a "middle path", leveraging the strengths of both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. Similarly, regional blocs like Asean and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are fostering intra-regional trade and economic resilience to reduce dependency on external powers. Brics, with its expanding membership, exemplifies this trend of multipolarity, providing a counterbalance to traditional western economic dominance.
For businesses, the technological divide between US-led and China-led ecosystems requires innovative solutions. While the US promotes open markets and democratic technology governance, China champions state-led innovation with heavy investments in infrastructure and renewable energy. Companies must adopt dual-track strategies, tailoring products and technologies for both ecosystems to remain competitive.
Despite polarisation, certain global challenges offer opportunities for collaboration. Climate change, for instance, remains a shared priority for the US and China. Their mutual interest in advancing clean energy and reducing emissions creates a unique space for co-operative initiatives. Nations and businesses that position themselves as leaders in green technology can bridge the gap between the two superpowers, proving that even in a divided world, common ground exists.
To thrive in this environment, nations, businesses and individuals must embrace strategic flexibility and innovation. For nations, that means building regional alliances and diversifying trade relationships will be crucial. Investing in domestic industries and adopting policies that prioritise resilience over dependency are key to maintaining autonomy.
For businesses, it means that navigating regulatory complexities across the US and China requires adaptability. Companies must invest in dual systems that cater to the specific demands of each ecosystem.
And for individuals, the rapid shifts in technology and global paradigms demand lifelong learning. Skills like cross-cultural fluency, adaptability and interdisciplinary expertise will define success in a multipolar workforce.
The Global Risk Report highlights the increasing complexity of global governance in the face of bi-globalisation. Combined with the rise of Brics and Asia’s growing dominance in both GDP and population, the global order is shifting fundamentally. Bi-globalisation is no longer just a theoretical concept; it is the defining feature of our time.
As nations and organisations adapt to this new reality, the challenge lies not in choosing sides but in harnessing the opportunities that come with multipolarity. In the words of Winston Churchill: "The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty."
In this bi-global world, the choice to innovate, grow and thrive is ours to make. The question is not whether we can succeed in navigating this dual landscape but whether we have the vision, courage and agility to lead within it.
