Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
January 02, 2022
The new year was always going to begin under the shadow of the pandemic. But with the Omicron variant spreading far and wide at a rapid pace, it won't be easy to tame the virus in the next 12 months. Covid-19 has already left behind a trail of death, pain and shattered dreams for nearly two years.
Of course, the coronavirus is not the only source of our problems today. The year 2021 has left behind a laundry list of crises – economic, political and geopolitical – that we need to tackle on an urgent basis in 2022.
Apart from the pandemic, the biggest crises afflicting the world are geopolitical in nature.
Tensions continue in Eastern Europe, where Nato and Russia are jockeying for influence. Ukraine's interest in joining Nato and the western security alliance’s gradual expansion into what Russia believes to be its sphere of influence has greatly worried Moscow. Talks scheduled for January 10 in Geneva between Russia and Nato member states could well avert an all-out conflict, but doubts remain over whether Nato will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand for something that resembles a treaty with written guarantees.
Balance of power requires strong leadership on all sides, something that is currently lacking in the West.
This is particularly a problem in Europe after Angela Merkel's resignation as the German chancellor late last year. French President Emmanuel Macron is considered to be Mrs Merkel's natural successor as Europe's de-facto leader, but he is up for re-election this year. Meanwhile, Olaf Scholz, the new German chancellor, is currently focused on domestic challenges.
The US is also facing a crisis of leadership under Joe Biden's presidency. The world is accustomed to seeing proactive and decisive American leadership but the Biden administration has come up short in this regard. It could be further hackneyed if the opposition Republican Party secures a majority of seats in the US House of Representatives and Senate – as is expected after this year's midterm election.
There will be no crisis of leadership in China, however. The 20th Congress of the ruling Communist Party is expected to re-elect Xi Jinping president this year. One can expect tensions to escalate between the US and China – particularly over the future of Taiwan, which has ties to Washington but is viewed as a renegade province by Beijing.
US President Joe Biden meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington in September. AFP
Apart from the pandemic, the other big crisis that matters to those of us living in the Middle East, but also beyond, is Iran's nuclear weapons programme – and, by extension, its geopolitical competition with Israel.
The on-again, off-again Vienna talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, could well lead to a breakthrough but if talks fail, a military confrontation cannot be ruled out between the two regional rivals.
Tehran has sent out multiple messages to Israel within the context of its various weapons development programmes. It has warned that it will accelerate its nuclear programme if talks fail. It has insisted that it is more militarily capable than ever and that its balance of power with Israel has shifted. It has also pledged to counter future covert strikes on its nuclear sites, having alleged Israel's hand in the past. It says it remains committed to Israel's destruction and is even confident that the Biden administration will not intervene militarily if a direct war were to erupt between Iran and Israel.
There are two views on the possible nature of a future conflict between the two countries.
The IRGC launches missiles during military exercises in southern Iran. EPA
The year 2021 has left behind a laundry list of crises – economic, political and geopolitical
One suggests that cyber warfare will continue unabated, as Israel steps up its alleged intelligence and covert operations, and that Iran will not seek a direct confrontation over concerns that this will leave Hezbollah – the Iranian-backed proxy in Lebanon, which shares a border with Israel – vulnerable.
The other view suggests that Lebanon could indeed be a theatre of war. Tehran is reportedly planning to expand its military support to Hezbollah in the coming days and weeks – especially if the Vienna talks fail.
Given the potential for any of the flashpoints mentioned above to occur, there is no doubt that the new year brings with it more than its fair share of anxiety. But living in fear is no remedy for the challenges we face in 2022, as important as it is to determine exactly what these challenges are.
For those of us who have been fortunate enough to survive the pandemic's onslaught, there are reasons to hope. Just as conflict is always around the corner, so are astounding discoveries, scientific and technological progress and positive social and political change. We have seen this even in the recent past.
At every level, from individual to societal to national to multilateral, we have to remind ourselves that we are partners in shaping our collective future. It is, therefore, our responsibility to ourselves and to future generations to find solutions rather than be pessimistic – particularly when 2022 has only just begun.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Ticket prices
Golden circle - Dh995
Floor Standing - Dh495
Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
Priority access to new homes from participating developers
Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
Flexible payment plans from developers
Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Saturday
Monaco v Caen (7pm)
Amiens v Bordeaux (10pm)
Angers v Toulouse (10pm)
Metz v Dijon (10pm)
Nantes v Guingamp (10pm)
Rennes v Lille (10pm)
Sunday
Nice v Strasbourg (5pm)
Troyes v Lyon (7pm)
Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain (11pm)
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Sole survivors
Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
