Western nations are planning for contingencies in case of Russian military action in Ukraine, even as talks in Paris indicate a conflict can still be averted. For weeks, experts and officials have warned that we have not been this close to a war in eastern Europe in more than three decades – basically since the end of the Cold War.
Adding to the general anxiety, the Doomsday Clock is set at 100 seconds to midnight. It is the closest the clock has ever been to catastrophe. The clock was first set at seven minutes to midnight amid nuclear tension between the US and the Soviet Union, but moved back to 17 minutes to midnight at the end of the Cold War. We are in a bizarre echo of that tense historical era which we had hoped was long gone.
Now Russia is accused of mobilising troops for an invasion of Ukraine. Kiev’s anxiety is natural given many Ukrainians consider that 7 per cent of its territory is already occupied – in Crimea, to the south and Donbas, in eastern Ukraine.
Moscow has a list of conditions that it wants met in return for de-escalating tensions on its border with Ukraine: a guarantee that Ukraine never be allowed to join Nato, and that the security alliance pull its forces back from countries in eastern European that joined after the Cold War.
The US and Nato have rejected these conditions and have warned Moscow that any attack would trigger fresh economic sanctions. Nato says Russia seeks to create a two-tier Nato, which it finds unacceptable. At the same time Nato is calling this crisis “a defining moment for Euro-Atlantic security”. Its forces, including those of the US, are on standby and additional ships and fighter jets have been sent to eastern Europe as an added deterrence.
"We discussed our joint efforts to deter further Russian aggression, such as preparations to impose severe economic costs on Russia and reinforce security on the eastern flank,” US President Joe Biden said after a meeting on the crisis with his team last weekend.
Moscow is unimpressed. "The United States is escalating tensions," a spokesperson said. "We are watching these US actions with great concern." The propaganda war is in full swing. Although neither side could be described as winning it, Nato, at least, can say it is more relevant now than it has been at any other time in the past five years.
Everywhere, there is much concern about where the Ukraine impasse could lead, even if it doesn’t end up in a full-blown conflict. Reuters reported that a trade group – representing Chevron, General Electric and other big US corporations and separately, energy companies – are all trying to mitigate the impact of possible sanctions on Russia on their businesses. Both in Washington and in the capitals of Europe, moves are being made to deal with a reduction in Russian gas supplies in an already tight market.
There is an imbalance in the cost of escalation that will be largely borne by European nations, and not just in access to energy. The US, UK and Canada, which have been the most vocal in their warnings to Moscow, would not suffer directly but they would still not relish being bogged down in another war so soon after Nato powers have left Afghanistan.
Sanctions have the potential to hurt Russia. It would seem there is enough incentive to stave off disaster. More talks are planned in Berlin in two weeks between Ukraine and Russia. This is “a good sign”, according to officials. The US is attempting to look tough while also saying diplomacy is its preferred route out of the crisis.
Even when there is a resolution, the consequences of the stress of the past few weeks may be felt for years to come. While not suggesting the Ukrainians should be left unsupported in any way, there are signs of a split among western powers in terms of priorities. All countries are already under enormous pressure thanks to the pandemic. It is also worth recalling how the US backing for the 2003 Iraq invasion divided world powers. The Middle East has lived with the ramifications of that misalignment ever since.
Even more worryingly, the likely fall-out from Ukraine is already a distraction from potentially more destabilising crises. Both Russia and the US are needed badly elsewhere. In terms of the potential for a fresh conflict this year, International Crisis Group has, for example, highlighted the threat from ISIS and Al Qaeda-linked groups in Africa. Other hotspots are Afghanistan, Myanmar, Haiti, Ethiopia and, as seen in the first weeks of this year, Yemen.
Terrorism remains arguably the biggest threat today. Yes, Ukraine matters and how the US and Russia show support for allies during difficult times is crucial for world stability. The fight against Covid-19 is not over; adding to which, snow storms and extreme weather have put people in the region in peril. More lives are bound to be lost. A collective response will be needed especially as the next humanitarian crisis may be just around the corner. Leaders of great powers would do well to keep this in mind as they choose what to do next.
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
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Pearls on a Branch: Oral Tales
Najlaa Khoury, Archipelago Books
Mountain%20Boy
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh359,000
On sale: now
Copa del Rey
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Semi-final, first leg
Wednesday (midnight UAE)
Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Date: Sunday, November 25
Western Region Asia Cup T20 Qualifier
Sun Feb 23 – Thu Feb 27, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the Asia qualifier in Malaysia in August
Group A
Bahrain, Maldives, Oman, Qatar
Group B
UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia
UAE group fixtures
Sunday Feb 23, 9.30am, v Iran
Monday Feb 25, 1pm, v Kuwait
Tuesday Feb 26, 9.30am, v Saudi
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza, Rohan Mustafa, Alishan Sharafu, Ansh Tandon, Vriitya Aravind, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Basil Hameed, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Ayaz, Zahoor Khan, Chirag Suri, Sultan Ahmed
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%208
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The details
Colette
Director: Wash Westmoreland
Starring: Keira Knightley, Dominic West
Our take: 3/5
Dubai World Cup draw
1. Gunnevera
2. Capezzano
3. North America
4. Audible
5. Seeking The Soul
6. Pavel
7. Gronkowski
8. Axelrod
9. New Trails
10. Yoshida
11. K T Brave
12. Thunder Snow
13. Dolkong
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
The%20Beekeeper
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Red Joan
Director: Trevor Nunn
Starring: Judi Dench, Sophie Cookson, Tereza Srbova
Rating: 3/5 stars
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8
Power: 503hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 685Nm at 2,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Price: from Dh850,000
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
Crawley Town 3 (Tsaroulla 50', Nadesan 53', Tunnicliffe 70')
Leeds United 0
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
