Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
May 01, 2022
The international community continues to be driven into rival blocs, driven by conflict, one-upmanship, and sheer audacity. This has left many states trying to navigate a path outside the growing polarisation. Major powers are attempting to shape an era with little room for non-alignment, but in all cases, countries are taking sides, or not, according to the preservation of national interests, rather than pure ideology.
The pressures from the major powers have a huge impact on the decisions of states outside of the US-led Western alliance. The administration of US President Joe Biden appears confident that its doctrine and policies will shape history and rise to the level of greatness required to lead a new alliance to contain China and Russia. However, it faces entrenched resistance to its efforts for global mobilisation because its position appears too confused, caught between professing a doctrine and improvising without a clear reference framework for its international relations and objectives.
But Russia has made up its mind, choosing a clear vision and national identity, with direct opposition to Nato's projects. China, for its part, continues to build a multilateral economic bloc through the Belt and Road Initiative, while consolidating strategic-military ties with key regional powers such as Iran.
It will be difficult for the US to win this battle of influence, particularly as it tries to lead fragmented and distant blocs around the world without a uniting agenda that caters to disparate national interests. The Biden administration is manoeuvring, for example, between the issues of Iran and Ukraine. For the former, it has tried to break apart the tight alliance between China, Iran, and Russia in order to secure a nuclear deal. But the polarisation over Ukraine has only pushed those countries closer together.
This makes the Biden administration's justifications for its determination to surrender to Iran’s conditions for reviving the nuclear deal even more problematic. Such a deal would rehabilitate and indirectly finance Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the same entity that enforces Tehran's strategic pact with China, and any possible future pact with Russia, and which projects Iran’s regional expansionist policies against US allies in the Middle East.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that a revived Iranian nuclear deal would benefit the entire Middle East. Tom Brenner
It will be difficult for the US to win this battle of influence
Instead of adopting a more deft diplomatic approach, the Biden administration continues to blame former president Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal for having accelerated Tehran’s sprint towards a nuclear bomb. There is not enough evidence to say this with any certainty. We cannot know whether Mr Trump's maximum pressure policy would have eventually forced Iran to change its doctrine and nuclear expansionist policy, because maximum pressure stopped when Mr Trump lost the election. What we do know is that an indirect cash injection from the Biden administration to the IRGC by accepting Iran’s demand to delist it as a terror organisation would empower it further inside the Iranian regime, allowing it to then oversee its pivot from nuclear activities to exporting its model to the Arab world based on entrenching loyalist militias in sovereign countries such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Envoy Robert Malley must recognise that the region is not convinced by their claims that their deal with the IRGC is meant to save the Middle East and humanity from an Iranian atom bomb, given those implications.
There is plenty of suspicion among some in the Middle East that the US is seeking to leverage its accommodating approach towards Iran in the negotiations to pressure its regional allies. The US is incensed that these allies have not automatically accepted its orders and priorities on issues like oil production and the need to align with it against Russia and China.
In the view of the Biden administration, a renewed nuclear deal with Iran could help convince the Iranians not to provoke or attack Israel. For this reason, the administration is selling a nuclear deal as something that serves Israeli interests.
But the war in Ukraine has also left doors open for Iran in the Middle East. Knowing that the US is preoccupied trying to balance Ukraine's terms of engagement against Moscow, Iran is freer to provoke more conflict in the Middle East. It could, for instance, heat up the already-escalating conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, by making use of its allies in Gaza and proxies in Syria and Lebanon. Tehran would also be comfortable knowing that its alliance with Russia and China would be affected very little by this in the long term, because it would only help demonstrate America's weakness. At the same time, all of this would have negative ramifications for other countries in the region with whom Russia and China have valued relationships.
The Middle East remains prone to detonation at the hands of outside players, and so clear alignments are never so easy, whatever major powers would like to think. Making alliances work in a way that navigates this tapestry of unprecedented complexity requires diplomacy that operates across more dimensions and with greater nuance.
MATCH INFO
Arsenal 1 (Aubameyang 12’) Liverpool 1 (Minamino 73’)
Arsenal win 5-4 on penalties
Man of the Match: Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Arsenal)
2021 World Triathlon Championship Series
May 15: Yokohama, Japan
June 5: Leeds, UK
June 24: Montreal, Canada
July 10: Hamburg, Germany
Aug 17-22: Edmonton, Canada (World Triathlon Championship Final)
Nov 5-6 : Abu Dhabi, UAE
Date TBC: Chengdu, China
Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species
Camelpox
Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.
Falconpox
Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.
Houbarapox
Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.
From exhibitions to the battlefield
In 2016, the Shaded Dome was awarded with the 'De Vernufteling' people's choice award, an annual prize by the Dutch Association of Consulting Engineers and the Royal Netherlands Society of Engineers for the most innovative project by a Dutch engineering firm.
It was assigned by the Dutch Ministry of Defence to modify the Shaded Dome to make it suitable for ballistic protection. Royal HaskoningDHV, one of the companies which designed the dome, is an independent international engineering and project management consultancy, leading the way in sustainable development and innovation.
It is driving positive change through innovation and technology, helping use resources more efficiently.
It aims to minimise the impact on the environment by leading by example in its projects in sustainable development and innovation, to become part of the solution to a more sustainable society now and into the future.
Priority access to new homes from participating developers
Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
Flexible payment plans from developers
Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
Manifest cargo
Excess luggage in the hold
Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday, February 8 v Kenya; Friday, February 9 v Canada; Sunday, February 11 v Nepal; Monday, February 12 v Oman; Wednesday, February 14 v Namibia; Thursday, February 15 final
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Total fights: 32 Wins: 28 Wins by KO: 26 Losses: 4
Sugary teas and iced coffees
The tax authority is yet to release a list of the taxed products, but it appears likely that sugary iced teas and cold coffees will be hit.
For instance, the non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Cold coffee brands are likely to be hit too. Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
