The two major US political parties – the Democrats and the Republicans – are perennially in upheaval. That's by design in a system that funnels all major political inputs into two giant, uneasy coalitions.
But the two party leaders are looking unusually weak these days. In different ways, Donald Trump and Joe Biden aren't inspiring much confidence.
Mr Biden's is the more straightforward case. He and his fellow centrists are still in charge of the Democratic Party, even though they face persistent challenges from a left wing that wants to take control. Like many first-term presidents, Mr Biden is facing a second year of misery. His poll numbers range from bad to abysmal, and despite his deft handling of the Ukraine crisis, it's still "the economy, stupid" that shapes the national mood.
First-term presidents' parties typically lose ground in their first midterms. Mr Biden may face a particularly large setback, because his party already has little room to manoeuvre in Congress. The persistence of significant inflation and the growing threat of a potential recession explain the distinctly sour mood of the country. It's looking like a grim November for the Democrats.
Time is not on Trump's side. But it may be on Biden's
However, his opposite number, Mr Trump, appears, if anything, to be in even bigger trouble. It's remarkable that he has been able to maintain a tight grip over his party despite his 2020 presidential election defeat to Mr Biden, although that's partly because he has convinced most Republicans that he didn't actually lose but was cheated. But as the Republican primaries for the November election are demonstrating, that grip is loosening considerably.
His spectacular comeuppance in Georgia last week was stunning. David Perdue, his anointed candidate, was demolished by incumbent governor Brian Kemp by more than 50 percentage points. Even worse, Georgia Republicans also re-nominated Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Both men rebuffed Mr Trump's claims about massive fraud in Georgia's 2020 election, and Mr Raffensperger did so with public derision and contempt. Mr Trump's effort to take vengeance on these alleged turncoats was of no interest to Republicans in Georgia.
Mr Trump's efforts to play the wrathful kingmaker have had, at best, mixed results. The Georgia humiliation was entirely self-inflicted. There was no rational reason for the former president to make state-level primaries de facto referendums on himself and his ridiculous fabrications about the 2020 vote. While most Republican candidates won't criticise Mr Trump or challenge his "big lie" about that election, it's clear that voters can distinguish between candidates who appeal to them and those he anoints. His cult of personality is in trouble.
It should be good news to him that his style of politics appears to be transferable and to have a life of its own. But it's evidently, and unsurprisingly, not. While he is still easily the most popular Republican figure, it's almost certain that Mr Trump would face some sort of opposition, and possibly a potent and credible one, if he seeks the 2024 presidential nomination.
Potential challengers include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Indeed, Mr DeSantis appears to be slowly constructing an American analogue to Viktor Orban's Hungarian "illiberal democracy" in Florida with elements of authoritarianism and hints of fascism. Mr DeSantis refuses to say whether he would challenge Mr Trump for the nomination or not. And the former president has not formally announced another campaign for the presidency.
But it is becoming increasingly clear that if he cannot move past re-litigating the 2020 election, he will not be a viable national candidate in 2024, even if he can win the party nomination. A group of prominent Republican leaders have banded together to oppose what they call Mr Trump's "revenge tour" of primary elections, and are plainly looking for alternative leadership.
Time is not on Mr Trump's side, particularly if he continues to obsess about 2020. But it may be on Mr Biden's. There is a strong pattern of Americans electing a president, then defeating his party in the first midterms, especially in the House of Representatives, and then re-electing him for a second term. This pattern of divided government applied to Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, while George W Bush's first midterms were held in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and its atmosphere of national unity.
So, Mr Biden’s chances of re-election may be better than many assume at present. Arguably the biggest challenge he will face is his age. He was 78 when he was elected as the oldest US president in history. Mr Trump, however, was the third oldest at age 70.
The American political system doesn't only suffer from structural dysfunctions, particularly anti-democratic elements that have yielded many dangerous manifestations of minority rule. It's also beset by an unhealthy level of gerontocracy, the rule of the elderly. It's not just Mr Biden and Mr Trump. Most of the senior leadership in both parties in the House and Senate are remarkably advanced in age. That's not necessarily a disaster, but it does demonstrate the undue advantage incumbents generally enjoy and, more strikingly, the noticeable lack of talent in the two, or in some cases even three, generations labouring to succeed them.
Mr Trump already defied expectations by winning the Republican nomination and then the presidency in 2016, and by remaining the dominant Republican despite his 2020 defeat. But the signs that his ascendancy may be ebbing are clear. Mr Biden's real test, meanwhile, will come after the midterms, particularly if, as seems likely, his party suffers a major defeat. That would almost certainly initiate a concerted and bitter attack from the left on his centrist leadership and policies.
Both the Republican and the Democratic leaders are old enough that their health is an issue, and, although it's obvious that both men are fully in control of their wits, both are frequently accused of being senile. Yet, Mr Biden has a huge advantage. He is in the White House. And that gives him leverage Mr Trump doesn't have to fend off internal party critics, battle Republicans and persist in shaping a forward-looking agenda. He's got enormous power.
Mr Trump not only lacks such authority, as ever he's his own worst enemy. As long as he makes dozens of state-level elections de facto referendums on his leadership and, especially, remains fixated on re-litigating 2020, his influence on national, and even Republican, politics can only continue to decline.
SHADOWS%20AND%20LIGHT%3A%20THE%20EXTRAORDINARY%20LIFE%20OF%20JAMES%20MCBEY
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Two products to make at home
Toilet cleaner
1 cup baking soda
1 cup castile soap
10-20 drops of lemon essential oil (or another oil of your choice)
Method:
1. Mix the baking soda and castile soap until you get a nice consistency.
2. Add the essential oil to the mix.
Air Freshener
100ml water
5 drops of the essential oil of your choice (note: lavender is a nice one for this)
Method:
1. Add water and oil to spray bottle to store.
2. Shake well before use.
Britain's travel restrictions
- A negative test 2 days before flying
- Complete passenger locator form
- Book a post-arrival PCR test
- Double-vaccinated must self-isolate
- 11 countries on red list quarantine
Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
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If you go
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Luang Prabang via Bangkok, with a return flight from Chiang Rai via Bangkok for about Dh3,000, including taxes. Emirates and Thai Airways cover the same route, also via Bangkok in both directions, from about Dh2,700.
The cruise
The Gypsy by Mekong Kingdoms has two cruising options: a three-night, four-day trip upstream cruise or a two-night, three-day downstream journey, from US$5,940 (Dh21,814), including meals, selected drinks, excursions and transfers.
The hotels
Accommodation is available in Luang Prabang at the Avani, from $290 (Dh1,065) per night, and at Anantara Golden Triangle Elephant Camp and Resort from $1,080 (Dh3,967) per night, including meals, an activity and transfers.
Movie: Saheb, Biwi aur Gangster 3
Producer: JAR Films
Director: Tigmanshu Dhulia
Cast: Sanjay Dutt, Jimmy Sheirgill, Mahie Gill, Chitrangda Singh, Kabir Bedi
Rating: 3 star
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
How to increase your savings
- Have a plan for your savings.
- Decide on your emergency fund target and once that's achieved, assign your savings to another financial goal such as saving for a house or investing for retirement.
- Decide on a financial goal that is important to you and put your savings to work for you.
- It's important to have a purpose for your savings as it helps to keep you motivated to continue while also reducing the temptation to spend your savings.
- Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
MATCH INFO
Jersey 147 (20 overs)
UAE 112 (19.2 overs)
Jersey win by 35 runs
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Mubadala World Tennis Championship 2018 schedule
Thursday December 27
Men's quarter-finals
Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung 4pm
Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov 6pm
Women's exhibition
Serena Williams v Venus Williams 8pm
Friday December 28
5th place play-off 3pm
Men's semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Anderson/Chung 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Thiem/Khachanov 7pm
Saturday December 29
3rd place play-off 5pm
Men's final 7pm
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
Graduated from the American University of Sharjah
She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks
Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
Saturday results
Qatar beat Kuwait by 26 runs
Bahrain beat Maldives by six wickets
UAE beat Saudi Arabia by seven wickets
Monday fixtures
Maldives v Qatar
Saudi Arabia v Kuwait
Bahrain v UAE
* The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm kick-off UAE)
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Cologne (5.30pm)
Mainz v Arminia Bielefeld (5.30pm)
Augsburg v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich (8.30pm)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Freiburg (10.30pm)
Sunday
VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Union Berlin v Hertha Berlin (8pm)
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: Turbocharged four-cylinder 2.7-litre
Power: 325hp
Torque: 500Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh189,700
On sale: now
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The Land between Two Rivers: Writing in an Age of Refugees
Tom Sleigh, Graywolf Press
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Napoleon
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Afcon 2019
SEMI-FINALS
Senegal v Tunisia, 8pm
Algeria v Nigeria, 11pm
Matches are live on BeIN Sports
How Islam's view of posthumous transplant surgery changed
Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.
Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.
The body is viewed as sacred, during and after death, thus prohibiting cremation and tattoos.
One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.
That view has largely changed, and among scholars and indeed many in society, to be seen as permissible to save another life.
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
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Brief scores:
Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first
Kerala Knights 103-7 (10 ov)
Parnell 59 not out; Tambe 5-15
Sindhis 104-1 (7.4 ov)
Watson 50 not out, Devcich 49
Panipat
Director Ashutosh Gowariker
Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment
Cast Arjun Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Kriti Sanon, Mohnish Behl, Padmini Kolhapure, Zeenat Aman
Rating 3 /5 stars
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RACE CARD
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,900m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 2,000m
8.15pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
