Despite recent crises, such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, there are empirical reasons to be optimistic about the future.
Looking at long-lasting trends in modern societies – the rise in life expectancy and economic prosperity – the odds are high that a lot of these trends will persist. For example, despite the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, life expectancy and economic prosperity are recovering and are on track to resume their long-term positive trend.
The data going back to the middle of the 16th century reveals how precarious the situation was a few hundred years ago. The main reasons for setbacks in life expectancy over the past 120 years have been wars and epidemics.
With the start of the era of industrialisation and its medical breakthroughs, life expectancy took off sustainably and approached 80 years at the end of the 20th century. With time, the setbacks in life expectancy get smaller but are still linked to epidemics. The toll of the First World War was amplified in 1918 by the Spanish flu, which cost more lives overall than the four previous years of fighting. Thereafter, the setbacks in life expectancy grew smaller but were still linked to epidemics, mainly the flu epidemics in the 1950s and 1960s, as well as the Aids epidemic in the 1980s. Yet as opposed to previous centuries, diseases were only brief interruptions amidst a stunning rise in life expectancy overall.
Evidence also shows that more income has been generated over the past 200 years than ever before. For instance, in the UK statistics, there was impressive economic improvement in the middle of the 19th century. This is often referred to as the era when industrialisation really took off. Before that, economic prosperity had fluctuated due to the cyclicality of agricultural harvests, and it was sometimes exacerbated by higher taxes due to wars. Economic prosperity took about 400 years to grow from the low levels of economic output per person in the early 14th century to the higher levels of the early 18th century. Thereafter, it grew by a factor of 18 in the subsequent 300 years until today.
In more concrete terms, economic prosperity grew from $2,000 per capita to over $36,000 in 300 years. In terms of wealth growth, it may once again sound unspectacular. However, there has notably been a continuous growth of more than 1 per cent year after year over the past three centuries, which is what the success of an advanced economy is all about.
Shocks such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, tend to have, by far, less long-term negative consequences on a global scale than one might expect them to have
Now that we have outlined the long-standing trends in longevity and wealth growth, let's examine whether these trends have been stopped or reversed by recent crises.
Let us first take a look at longevity. We outlined above the patterns in modern history that point to infections as one of the main reasons for a fall in life expectancy. The same can be said of the Covid-19 pandemic, which, according to the statistics, has shortened life expectancy as well. Perhaps the drop in life expectancy due to Covid-19 has been more severe than during any epidemic that came after the flu epidemics of the 1960s and 1970s.
With regard to the wealth effects, the picture is slightly more nuanced. The latest available data that is comparable to the historical timelines was compiled before the pandemic. But we should be able to approximately gauge the effects by taking the latest output numbers (such as gross domestic product) and dividing them by the number of people in the economy (which tends not to change that much in modern society). So, in wealth terms, there are some discrepancies between countries.
On the one hand, China, the US, Switzerland and some Asian economies surpassed their pre-crisis output numbers about 12 to 18 months after the start of the pandemic. This means their per capita output has increased as well, given only moderate population growth. In contrast to those countries that have managed to move towards pre-crisis output levels, there are stagnant economies, such as Japan, the UK, and Italy, where output levels have not yet reached pre-crisis levels.
Putting it into historical context, it seems that shocks, such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, tend to have, by far, less long-term negative consequences on a global scale than one might expect them to have.
In fact, from what we can see today, it seems that modern economies have overcome most of the pandemic-related burdens by now.
Memories of the pandemic may still be a burden to many, and people may still be traumatised by their experiences during that time. Yet overall, the odds are good that some of the improvements that humankind has experienced over the past 200 years will continue to make life better – or at least less burdensome as compared to previous generations – in the years ahead.
Despite the crises in the world today, there are good reasons to remain optimistic – or even better, a rational optimist.
HIV on the rise in the region
A 2019 United Nations special analysis on Aids reveals 37 per cent of new HIV infections in the Mena region are from people injecting drugs.
New HIV infections have also risen by 29 per cent in western Europe and Asia, and by 7 per cent in Latin America, but declined elsewhere.
Egypt has shown the highest increase in recorded cases of HIV since 2010, up by 196 per cent.
Access to HIV testing, treatment and care in the region is well below the global average.
Few statistics have been published on the number of cases in the UAE, although a UNAIDS report said 1.5 per cent of the prison population has the virus.
SPECS
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COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
WHAT FANS WILL LOVE ABOUT RUSSIA
FANS WILL LOVE
Uber is ridiculously cheap and, as Diego Saez discovered, mush safer. A 45-minute taxi from Pulova airport to Saint Petersburg’s Nevsky Prospect can cost as little as 500 roubles (Dh30).
FANS WILL LOATHE
Uber policy in Russia is that they can start the fare as soon as they arrive at the pick-up point — and oftentimes they start it even before arriving, or worse never arrive yet charge you anyway.
FANS WILL LOVE
It’s amazing how active Russians are on social media and your accounts will surge should you post while in the country. Throw in a few Cyrillic hashtags and watch your account numbers rocket.
FANS WILL LOATHE
With cold soups, bland dumplings and dried fish, Russian cuisine is not to everybody’s tastebuds. Fortunately, there are plenty Georgian restaurants to choose from, which are both excellent and economical.
FANS WILL LOVE
The World Cup will take place during St Petersburg's White Nights Festival, which means perpetual daylight in a city that genuinely never sleeps. (Think toddlers walking the streets with their grandmothers at 4am.)
FANS WILL LOATHE
The walk from Krestovsky Ostrov metro station to Saint Petersburg Arena on a rainy day makes you wonder why some of the $1.7 billion was not spent on a weather-protected walkway.
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Results
Light Flyweight (49kg): Mirzakhmedov Nodirjon (UZB) beat Daniyal Sabit (KAZ) by points 5-0.
Flyweight (52kg): Zoirov Shakhobidin (UZB) beat Amit Panghol (IND) 3-2.
Bantamweight (56kg): Kharkhuu Enkh-Amar (MGL) beat Mirazizbek Mirzahalilov (UZB) 3-2.
Lightweight (60kg): Erdenebat Tsendbaatar (MGL) beat Daniyal Shahbakhsh (IRI) 5-0.
Light Welterweight (64kg): Baatarsukh Chinzorig (MGL) beat Shiva Thapa (IND) 3-2.
Welterweight (69kg): Bobo-Usmon Baturov (UZB) beat Ablaikhan Zhussupov (KAZ) RSC round-1.
Middleweight (75kg): Jafarov Saidjamshid (UZB) beat Abilkhan Amankul (KAZ) 4-1.
Light Heavyweight (81kg): Ruzmetov Dilshodbek (UZB) beat Meysam Gheshlaghi (IRI) 3-2.
Heavyweight (91kg): Sanjeet (IND) beat Vassiliy Levit (KAZ) 4-1.
Super Heavyweight ( 91kg): Jalolov Bakhodir (UZB) beat Kamshibek Kunkabayev (KAZ) 5-0.
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
SECRET%20INVASION
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Tips on buying property during a pandemic
Islay Robinson, group chief executive of mortgage broker Enness Global, offers his advice on buying property in today's market.
While many have been quick to call a market collapse, this simply isn’t what we’re seeing on the ground. Many pockets of the global property market, including London and the UAE, continue to be compelling locations to invest in real estate.
While an air of uncertainty remains, the outlook is far better than anyone could have predicted. However, it is still important to consider the wider threat posed by Covid-19 when buying bricks and mortar.
Anything with outside space, gardens and private entrances is a must and these property features will see your investment keep its value should the pandemic drag on. In contrast, flats and particularly high-rise developments are falling in popularity and investors should avoid them at all costs.
Attractive investment property can be hard to find amid strong demand and heightened buyer activity. When you do find one, be prepared to move hard and fast to secure it. If you have your finances in order, this shouldn’t be an issue.
Lenders continue to lend and rates remain at an all-time low, so utilise this. There is no point in tying up cash when you can keep this liquidity to maximise other opportunities.
Keep your head and, as always when investing, take the long-term view. External factors such as coronavirus or Brexit will present challenges in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains strong.
Finally, keep an eye on your currency. Whenever currency fluctuations favour foreign buyers, you can bet that demand will increase, as they act to secure what is essentially a discounted property.
England ODI squad
Eoin Morgan (captain), Moeen Ali, Jonny Bairstow, Jake Ball, Sam Billings, Jos Buttler, Tom Curran, Alex Hales, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, David Willey, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood.
UAE's role in anti-extremism recognised
General John Allen, President of the Brookings Institution research group, commended the role the UAE has played in the fight against terrorism and violent extremism.
He told a Globsec debate of the UAE’s "hugely outsized" role in the fight against Isis.
"It’s trite these days to say that any country punches above its weight, but in every possible way the Emirates did, both militarily, and very importantly, the UAE was extraordinarily helpful on getting to the issue of violent extremism," he said.
He also noted the impact that Hedayah, among others in the UAE, has played in addressing violent extremism.
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Naga
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Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
In Search of Mary Shelley: The Girl Who Wrote Frankenstein
By Fiona Sampson
Profile
Scoreline
Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')
Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')
Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'
FIGHT CARD
Fights start from 6pm Friday, January 31
Catchweight 82kg
Piotr Kuberski (POL) v Ahmed Saeb (IRQ)
Women’s bantamweight
Cornelia Holm (SWE) v Corinne Laframboise (CAN)
Welterweight
Omar Hussein (JOR) v Vitalii Stoian (UKR)
Welterweight
Josh Togo (LEB) v Ali Dyusenov (UZB)
Flyweight
Isaac Pimentel (BRA) v Delfin Nawen (PHI)
Catchweight 80kg
Seb Eubank (GBR) v Mohamed El Mokadem (EGY)
Lightweight
Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Ramadan Noaman (EGY)
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) v Reydon Romero (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Juho Valamaa (FIN)
Featherweight
Elias Boudegzdame (ALG) v Austin Arnett (USA)
Super heavyweight
Roman Wehbe (LEB) v Maciej Sosnowski (POL)
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Steve Smith (capt), David Warner, Cameron Bancroft, Jackson Bird, Pat Cummins, Peter Handscomb, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, Shaun Marsh, Tim Paine, Chadd Sayers, Mitchell Starc.
Key Points
- Protests against President Omar Al Bashir enter their sixth day
- Reports of President Bashir's resignation and arrests of senior government officials
