Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
August 14, 2022
Regardless of whether or not the global powers succeed in reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, western governments involved in the negotiations to rein in the latter's nuclear weapons programme should examine all possible scenarios and their implications, and not just panic over the prospect of the talks failing. Further, merely hoping that a deal would soften the Iranian regime’s expansionist doctrine and the activities of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is wishful thinking.
Lately, western powers seem to be eagerly sprinting towards securing an agreement. A faction within the Biden administration in Washington seems desperate for a big foreign policy win. The three European powers involved in the talks – France, Germany and the UK – may be hoping that a deal serves the interests of a continent that is both thirsty for Iranian oil and gas and fearful of Tehran's nuclear blackmail. There is an assumption in the West that Tehran is no longer a threat to European security – either due to wishful thinking in some European capitals or because backroom dealings are being held with the Iranian regime.
While the revival of the JCPOA will lift sanctions on Iran, it might also empower the IRGC to implement the regime’s doctrine. Recall that this doctrine seeks to undermine comparatively weak Arab states, export Iran’s model to them, and foster paramilitary forces loyal to Tehran that erode Arab sovereignty. Hezbollah in Lebanon is a case in point.
It's possible that a lack of political consensus in the US on Iran’s nuclear programme will make it difficult for the Biden administration to secure an agreement ahead of the mid-term election in November. Some experts worry that a deal before the election will damage the governing Democratic Party’s prospects. But there are those who feel that a deal could favour the party at the ballot box.
In any case, the Iranian regime, which has demanded the removal of the IRGC from the US terror list, might consider postponing the same in return for an agreement, which it needs in order to revive its economy. But can the Biden administration provide such a guarantee? It’s not improbable. The formula being discussed could separate the IRGC issue the nuclear programme, in a trilateral framework comprised of the US, Europe and Iran. This framework wouldn’t require Russia or China, both of which stand with Iran and would benefit from sanctions being lifted on Tehran anyway.
Europe has a number of tools it can use to influence Iran’s behaviour, including Iran’s reliance on European technology
Moreover, the question of the IRGC's legitimacy is currently not the greatest obstacle to a deal. It is the issue of the world’s inability to monitor Iran’s nuclear programme, which has led to serious disagreements between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that cutting a deal is necessary to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, and to avoid a confrontation between Iran and Israel. Let’s say there are hidden benefits to international and regional understandings that gradually open a new chapter in Iran’s behaviour and security alignments. What, then, would be the safeguards that should be considered or adopted in order to avoid the negative repercussions of a deal in the region, and to preserve American and European strategic ties with the Arab world – especially given China and Russia’s strategic alignments with Iran? In what areas should the concerned parties be vigilant to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past? And could the prospective deal become a tool with which Iran destroys the sovereignty of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon?
Creative language may be used to address the issue of IRGC's designation, to avoid obstruction, for example by condemning its past actions while expressing hope for its better behaviour in the future. An alleged Iranian plot, uncovered recently, to assassinate former US president Donald Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton could be deemed as one of its "past actions". The Europeans, meanwhile, believe Iranian-inspired terror plots on their soil have ceased, and they could insist on the preservation of the status quo.
However, they should also apply pressure on Iran’s activities in the Arab world. If this isn’t a matter of priority for the West, then it should remember that Europe is separated from the Arab region only by the Mediterranean Sea, a route that illegal immigrants continue to use to reach the continent. It is, therefore, in its interest to be alert to the Middle East’s security challenges.
Moreover, Europe has a number of tools it can use to influence Iran’s behaviour.
Representatives from Iran, right, and the EU, left, attend a meeting of the joint commission on negotiations aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear deal in Vienna last December. AFP
There are economic tools, including Iran’s reliance on European technology and on the continent’s companies to make a recovery; as well as Iran's desperate need to reintegrate itself with the global economy. As fantastical as it sounds, there may be those in Europe who think that a deal that could avert an energy crisis might also encourage Tehran to pivot to the West.
In return, the West may hope a deal leads to stable Israel-Iran relations; the expansion of the Abraham Accords, and finally, a new security architecture in the Middle East that will help resolve several regional disputes.
Take Lebanon, for example, which faces economic turmoil, threats to its sovereignty, challenges to judicial independence, and an inability to invest in its own hydrocarbon resources.
The first step towards addressing the country’s myriad challenges must be to resolve the issue of the demarcation of its maritime borders with Israel. Iran is not currently hindering this process, but its proxy, Hezbollah, has entered the fray through making threats, deploying drones and inserting the "resistance" as a party to oil and gas exploration and extraction. Perhaps this is “a good cop, bad cop” routine from Tehran and Hezbollah, but those seeking the nuclear deal must secure a guarantee from Iran that lifting of sanctions against it will not fuel Hezbollah’s domination over the Lebanese state.
There are other instruments leverage over Iran that are available to western capitals, if these countries are truly honest in their stated concern for Lebanon's independence. And although the country's politicians are indeed responsible for its economic collapse, the upcoming phase of events requires the major powers to cease blaming the Lebanese people exclusively for their problems. They have a major responsibility on their shoulders to protect Lebanon and other vulnerable Arab nations from the repercussions of a deal with Iran.
The US and Europe, in particular, need to ensure that their regional objectives are translated into policy implemented with a set of rules and the threat of consequences for those who flout it. Otherwise, the wider world – and not just the region – is likely pay a heavy price down the road.
Last five meetings
2013: South Korea 0-2 Brazil
2002: South Korea 2-3 Brazil
1999: South Korea 1-0 Brazil
1997: South Korea 1-2 Brazil
1995: South Korea 0-1 Brazil
Note: All friendlies
Dr Graham's three goals
Short term
Establish logistics and systems needed to globally deploy vaccines
Intermediate term
Build biomedical workforces in low- and middle-income nations
Long term
A prototype pathogen approach for pandemic preparedness
First Test: New Zealand 30 British & Irish Lions 15
Second Test: New Zealand 21 British & Irish Lions 24
Third Test: New Zealand 15 British & Irish Lions 15
The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
The Apple Card looks different from a traditional credit card — there's no number on the front and the users' name is etched in metal. The card expands the company's digital Apple Pay services, marrying the physical card to a virtual one and integrating both with the iPhone. Its attributes include quick sign-up, elimination of most fees, strong security protections and cash back.
What does it cost?
Apple says there are no fees associated with the card. That means no late fee, no annual fee, no international fee and no over-the-limit fees. It also said it aims to have among the lowest interest rates in the industry. Users must have an iPhone to use the card, which comes at a cost. But they will earn cash back on their purchases — 3 per cent on Apple purchases, 2 per cent on those with the virtual card and 1 per cent with the physical card. Apple says it is the only card to provide those rewards in real time, so that cash earned can be used immediately.
What will the interest rate be?
The card doesn't come out until summer but Apple has said that as of March, the variable annual percentage rate on the card could be anywhere from 13.24 per cent to 24.24 per cent based on creditworthiness. That's in line with the rest of the market, according to analysts
What about security?
The physical card has no numbers so purchases are made with the embedded chip and the digital version lives in your Apple Wallet on your phone, where it's protected by fingerprints or facial recognition. That means that even if someone steals your phone, they won't be able to use the card to buy things.
Is it easy to use?
Apple says users will be able to sign up for the card in the Wallet app on their iPhone and begin using it almost immediately. It also tracks spending on the phone in a more user-friendly format, eliminating some of the gibberish that fills a traditional credit card statement. Plus it includes some budgeting tools, such as tracking spending and providing estimates of how much interest could be charged on a purchase to help people make an informed decision.
Investment: Own savings. Going for first round of fund-raising in March 2019
Unresolved crisis
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was ousted, Moscow annexed Crimea and then backed a separatist insurgency in the east.
Fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces has killed more than 14,000 people. In 2015, France and Germany helped broker a peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, that ended large-scale hostilities but failed to bring a political settlement of the conflict.
The Kremlin has repeatedly accused Kiev of sabotaging the deal, and Ukrainian officials in recent weeks said that implementing it in full would hurt Ukraine.
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The biog
Family: He is the youngest of five brothers, of whom two are dentists.
Celebrities he worked on: Fabio Canavaro, Lojain Omran, RedOne, Saber Al Rabai.
Winner Equilateral, Frankie Dettori, Charles Hills.
Types of policy
Term life insurance: this is the cheapest and most-popular form of life cover. You pay a regular monthly premium for a pre-agreed period, typically anything between five and 25 years, or possibly longer. If you die within that time, the policy will pay a cash lump sum, which is typically tax-free even outside the UAE. If you die after the policy ends, you do not get anything in return. There is no cash-in value at any time. Once you stop paying premiums, cover stops.
Whole-of-life insurance: as its name suggests, this type of life cover is designed to run for the rest of your life. You pay regular monthly premiums and in return, get a guaranteed cash lump sum whenever you die. As a result, premiums are typically much higher than one term life insurance, although they do not usually increase with age. In some cases, you have to keep up premiums for as long as you live, although there may be a cut-off period, say, at age 80 but it can go as high as 95. There are penalties if you don’t last the course and you may get a lot less than you paid in.
Critical illness cover: this pays a cash lump sum if you suffer from a serious illness such as cancer, heart disease or stroke. Some policies cover as many as 50 different illnesses, although cancer triggers by far the most claims. The payout is designed to cover major financial responsibilities such as a mortgage or children’s education fees if you fall ill and are unable to work. It is cost effective to combine it with life insurance, with the policy paying out once if you either die or suffer a serious illness.
Income protection: this pays a replacement income if you fall ill and are unable to continue working. On the best policies, this will continue either until you recover, or reach retirement age. Unlike critical illness cover, policies will typically pay out for stress and musculoskeletal problems such as back trouble.
Last-16
France 4
Griezmann (13' pen), Pavard (57'), Mbappe (64', 68')
Argentina 3
Di Maria (41'), Mercado (48'), Aguero (90 3')
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
What is Genes in Space?
Genes in Space is an annual competition first launched by the UAE Space Agency, The National and Boeing in 2015.
It challenges school pupils to design experiments to be conducted in space and it aims to encourage future talent for the UAE’s fledgling space industry. It is the first of its kind in the UAE and, as well as encouraging talent, it also aims to raise interest and awareness among the general population about space exploration.
