Ukrainian soldiers at their posts in the Donetsk region on Saturday. AP Photo
Ukrainian soldiers at their posts in the Donetsk region on Saturday. AP Photo
Ukrainian soldiers at their posts in the Donetsk region on Saturday. AP Photo
Ukrainian soldiers at their posts in the Donetsk region on Saturday. AP Photo


Is Russia on the verge of collapse in Ukraine?


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September 13, 2022

In the Ukrainian capital this past weekend, the good news was coming in too quickly to keep up.

Kyiv’s counter-offensive had by Friday retaken several villages in the Kharkiv oblast in just two days. Then suddenly it had retaken 1,500 square kilometres, including the supply hub Kupyansk and the railway hub Izyum. And by Sunday, it was 3,000 square kilometres, with reports of Russian troops fleeing so quickly they left behind tanks, ammunition and heavy equipment.

A bolt of joy struck cold, rainy Kyiv, and all of Ukraine.

“You are gnawing away every metre, every frontier, every city and village of ours,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told troops on Day 200 of the conflict. “The enemy is panicking.”

It did seem that way. Chechen troops were seen along Russia’s southern frontlines, which to some suggested a collapse of morale. Pro-Kremlin commentators started blaming the mess in Ukraine on whoever had convinced Moscow's leadership that taking Kyiv would be easy.

Overjoyed at the burst of positive news after months of darkness, the streets of Kyiv and all of pro-Ukraine Twitter were abuzz with positivity, indulging in visions of all-out victory.

I hate to rain on Ukrainians’ parade, but hold your horses. The events of the past week in Kharkiv mark the largest territorial gains for either side since April and the most meaningful Ukrainian battlefield wins – and the biggest setback for Moscow – since Russian forces gave up their assault on Kyiv nearly six months ago.

Ukrainian officials are already warning of an aggressive Russian military response

But Russia remains a military power that still occupies more than one fifth of Ukraine. This includes Crimea and much of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts – areas Moscow has controlled since 2014. Major cities such as Kherson, Mariupol and Melitopol are also under Russian control, part of the so-called Russian land bridge to Crimea.

By Sunday evening, the Kremlin had made its continued presence felt by striking the power grid across much of eastern Ukraine. The blackouts affected some 9 million people in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipro, Sumy and Poltava oblasts, and many were also without water.

There’s surely more to come. If Moscow’s approach in Syria is any guide, Ukraine should expect the Russians to take out more key bits of infrastructure, such as water utilities, hospitals, schools and bridges, in an effort to strand and demoralise the population. Times are likely to get tougher, for Ukrainians, before they turn bright again.

Ukrainian officials are already warning of an aggressive Russian military response, such as a major offensive. If it wanted to, the Kremlin could launch a massive assault on the key port of Odesa tomorrow. Or seek to retake the lands it just lost.

But even so, Russia’s Kharkiv collapse could mark a turning point. For one thing, we may finally be starting to see the full impact, on the battlefield, of US intelligence plus the latest advanced weaponry from Ukraine’s American and European backers.

There are also signs that Ukraine is just more strategically adept. Kyiv outfoxed Moscow in Kharkiv with two key moves. First, nearly two weeks ago, Ukrainian officials began talking about a major counter-offensive in the Kherson oblast. Russia appears to have responded by re-deploying forces in that direction.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during his joint news conference with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Latvian President Egils Levits in Kyiv on Friday. Getty Images
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during his joint news conference with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Latvian President Egils Levits in Kyiv on Friday. Getty Images

Around the same time, Kyiv announced a temporary ban on reporting from the frontlines, saying that due to potential saboteurs only Ukrainian officials would be able to relay what was happening. Under cover of this media blackout, Ukrainian forces readied for a huge assault on Russian positions south of Kharkiv city, which quickly turned into a rout.

Suddenly, informed western analysts are echoing Ukrainian officials. Like Mr Zelenskyy, Eliot Cohen, a military history professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, also saw signs of panic. “A broader process of Russian collapse may be under way,” he said on Twitter.

Some pro-Moscow analysts have begun turning on the government. Several complained about its billion-rouble 875th birthday party for Moscow on Saturday, just as Russian soldiers were overrun in Ukraine.

On Telegram, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a loyalist of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said the military had made mistakes and that if no strategic changes were made he would be forced to question the country’s leaders.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is doing its best to tamp down the euphoria. As of mid-day on Monday, Russian troops had fully pulled out of the Kharkiv oblast and Ukrainian forces had begun to encircle occupied Kherson, further south, reportedly spurring a Russian battalion to surrender. In one newly liberated town, Ukrainian troops tore away a large billboard that read: “We are Russia. One people." Underneath were verses from the father of Ukrainian nationalism, Taras Shevchenko.

“Keep fighting – you are sure to win,” urges his 19th-century poem, The Caucasus. “For fame and freedom march with you, and right is on your side.”

The specs

Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo

Transmission: seven-speed PDK dual clutch automatic

Power: 375bhp

Torque: 520Nm

Price: Dh332,800

On sale: now

UNSC Elections 2022-23

Seats open:

  • Two for Africa Group
  • One for Asia-Pacific Group (traditionally Arab state or Tunisia)
  • One for Latin America and Caribbean Group
  • One for Eastern Europe Group

Countries so far running: 

  • UAE
  • Albania 
  • Brazil 
The specs: 2019 BMW i8 Roadster

Price, base: Dh708,750

Engine: 1.5L three-cylinder petrol, plus 11.6 kWh lithium-ion battery

Transmission: Six-speed automatic

Power: 374hp (total)

Torque: 570Nm (total)

Fuel economy, combined: 2.0L / 100km

Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill

Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.

The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Our legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Desert Warrior

Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley

Director: Rupert Wyatt

Rating: 3/5

Result

Tottenhan Hotspur 2 Roma 3
Tottenham: Winks 87', Janssen 90 1'

Roma 3
D Perotti 13' (pen), C Under 70', M Tumminello 90 2"

 

SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206-cylinder%203-litre%2C%20with%20petrol%20and%20diesel%20variants%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20286hp%20(petrol)%2C%20249hp%20(diesel)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E450Nm%20(petrol)%2C%20550Nm%20(diesel)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EStarting%20at%20%2469%2C800%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

At Eternity’s Gate

Director: Julian Schnabel

Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen

Three stars

ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Basquiat in Abu Dhabi

One of Basquiat’s paintings, the vibrant Cabra (1981–82), now hangs in Louvre Abu Dhabi temporarily, on loan from the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi. 

The latter museum is not open physically, but has assembled a collection and puts together a series of events called Talking Art, such as this discussion, moderated by writer Chaedria LaBouvier. 

It's something of a Basquiat season in Abu Dhabi at the moment. Last week, The Radiant Child, a documentary on Basquiat was shown at Manarat Al Saadiyat, and tonight (April 18) the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi is throwing the re-creation of a party tonight, of the legendary Canal Zone party thrown in 1979, which epitomised the collaborative scene of the time. It was at Canal Zone that Basquiat met prominent members of the art world and moved from unknown graffiti artist into someone in the spotlight.  

“We’ve invited local resident arists, we’ll have spray cans at the ready,” says curator Maisa Al Qassemi of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi. 

Guggenheim Abu Dhabi's Canal Zone Remix is at Manarat Al Saadiyat, Thursday April 18, from 8pm. Free entry to all. Basquiat's Cabra is on view at Louvre Abu Dhabi until October

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
Classification of skills

A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation. 

A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.

The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000. 

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Director: Scott Cooper

Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong

Rating: 4/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Gran Gala del Calcio 2019 winners

Best Player: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)
Best Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta)
Best Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Best Goal: Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria vs Napoli)
Best Team: Atalanta​​​​​​​
Best XI: Samir Handanovic (Inter); Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli), Joao Cancelo (Juventus*); Miralem Pjanic (Juventus), Josip Ilicic (Atalanta), Nicolo Barella (Cagliari*); Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Duvan Zapata (Atalanta)
Serie B Best Young Player: Sandro Tonali (Brescia)
Best Women’s Goal: Thaisa (Milan vs Juventus)
Best Women’s Player: Manuela Giugliano (Milan)
Best Women’s XI: Laura Giuliani (Milan); Alia Guagni (Fiorentina), Sara Gama (Juventus), Cecilia Salvai (Juventus), Elisa Bartoli (Roma); Aurora Galli (Juventus), Manuela Giugliano (Roma), Valentina Cernoia (Juventus); Valentina Giacinti (Milan), Ilaria Mauro (Fiorentina), Barbara Bonansea (Juventus)

Trump v Khan

2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US

2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks

2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit

2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”

2022:  Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency

July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”

Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.

Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”

Teams

India (playing XI): Virat Kohli (c), Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Hanuma Vihari, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ishant Sharma, Mohammed Shami

South Africa (squad): Faf du Plessis (c), Temba Bavuma, Theunis de Bruyn, Quinton de Kock, Dean Elgar, Zubayr Hamza, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Senuran Muthusamy, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Vernon Philander, Dane Piedt, Kagiso Rabada, Rudi Second

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Etwo%20permanent%20magnet%20synchronous%20motors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Etwo-speed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E625hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E850Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E456km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh737%2C480%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Updated: September 13, 2022, 4:00 AM