A police officer walks on a road as smoke rises after an explosion during a de-mining operation near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border in the village of Ak-Say, some 1000 kilometres from Bishkek, on September 21, as the worst violence the two ex-Soviet countries have seen in years broke out last week on their contested border. AFP
A police officer walks on a road as smoke rises after an explosion during a de-mining operation near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border in the village of Ak-Say, some 1000 kilometres from Bishkek, on September 21, as the worst violence the two ex-Soviet countries have seen in years broke out last week on their contested border. AFP
A police officer walks on a road as smoke rises after an explosion during a de-mining operation near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border in the village of Ak-Say, some 1000 kilometres from Bishkek, on September 21, as the worst violence the two ex-Soviet countries have seen in years broke out last week on their contested border. AFP
A police officer walks on a road as smoke rises after an explosion during a de-mining operation near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border in the village of Ak-Say, some 1000 kilometres from Bishkek, on September 2

Opinion

Comment

Central Asia has not been so unstable since the fall of the Soviet Union

David Loyn
David Loyn
  • English
  • Arabic
David Loyn is the author of The Long War – The Inside Story of America and Afghanistan since 9/11. He is a visiting senior fellow in the War Studies Department in King’s College, London

October 17, 2022

We might hear little of them, but there have been around 230 outbreaks of frontier violence between between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan since the collapse of the Soviet Union some 30 years ago. That matters. The countries themselves might be relatively small, but the region in which they lie, Central Asia, is not, both in terms of geography and geopolitical significance.

This is particularly the case today. Russia, with its significant and historic footprint in the area, is under severe economic and diplomatic strain due to the war in Ukraine. Afghanistan, which borders the region, is in turmoil and questions remain over quite how dangerous a Taliban regime will be for its neighbours.

That is why the most recent border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan might be different from the hundreds of others, and in a very concerning way. First, it was by far the worst outbreak since the two countries became independent – roughly 100 people died, and 140,000 others fled from their homes.

Kyrgyz military look for unexploded shells in the village of Ak-Say near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, some 1000 kilometres from Bishkek, on September 20. AFP
Kyrgyz military look for unexploded shells in the village of Ak-Say near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, some 1000 kilometres from Bishkek, on September 20. AFP

Second, it happened in a region, the Ferghana Valley, which has been the crucible for several extremist groups, most prominently the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, responsible for several large attacks in Pakistan, and allied to the Afghan Taliban. While militants were not involved in the recent outbreak of fighting, they thrive on insecurity. A worsening conflict would enable them to make further inroads in the region.

Roughly 100 people have died, and 140,000 others fled from their homes. A previously loyal client state, Armenia, is unhappy too

The third concerning factor in the outbreak of fighting is that it happened just as regional leaders were meeting in Uzbekistan for a round of talks in the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation – a process led by China to improve economic ties and security across Central Asia. Russia still sees itself as the guarantor of security on the borders of the old Soviet Union, and has mediated between Bishkek and Dushanbe over border clashes in the past, but now appears to have lost its ability to reduce violence.

Both of the warring countries are part of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation that brings together a handful of former Soviet bloc states. But collective security clearly has no meaning if Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon was confident enough to pursue the conflict as aggressively as he did while Russian President Vladimir Putin was actually in the region. A ceasefire he agreed with Kyrgyzstan President Sadyr Japarov, when they met at the summit, did not last a day.

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov shakes hands with Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on September 16. Reuters
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov shakes hands with Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on September 16. Reuters

Mr Putin faced difficulties in the SCO talks, with open scepticism over his Ukraine policy from both China and India. His inability to influence two allies shows just how much impact Ukraine has had beyond Europe. Far from being the projection of military might that Russia wanted, its struggles in Ukraine instead reveal weakness, and the waves from that go far. Another previously loyal client state, Armenia, has recently signalled that it too is unhappy. The world would be wise not to ignore the dynamics of conflict in this remote landlocked region which have the capacity to cause tensions far wider.

The background to the Kyrgyz-Tajik conflict goes back to Russia’s land grabs across the steppes to the south in the 19th century. The Soviet Union inherited colonial control of Central Asia as far as the northern Afghan frontier after the 1917 revolution. Until the break-up of the Soviet Union, precise borders did not matter in the landlocked mountainous region. But that changed in 1991. The mapmaking that drew up meandering borders of the new countries was untidy. Unresolved disputes over almost half of the 1,000-kilometre border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been the cause of simmering quarrels that have often boiled over to open conflict.

The borders carved out in the early 1990s prioritised linguistic and tribal groupings, but left many anomalies, including a number of enclaves of people controlled by one country, but surrounded by land of another. It was in just such a Tajik-controlled region, called Vorukh, with a population of 30,000, in Kyrgyzstan that the recent fighting begun.

Vorukh is on the south side of the Ferghana Valley that runs east-west, surrounded by mountains, through three countries. Most of the fertile lowlands of the valley are in Uzbekistan, with Uzbek territory shaped like a long tongue bordered on the north and south by Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Each country blames the other for provoking the recent clashes, but there is no doubt that Kyrgyzstan came off worse, with large displacements of population and the raising of the Tajik flag in villages claimed by Tajikistan in order to link Vorukh directly with its land, although it is unclear whether those troops have since withdrawn or are planning annexation of territory. The territorial disputes are exacerbated by arguments over access to water.

There is one other key regional dynamic in play. Tajikistan, which shares a border with Afghanistan across a narrow river, is playing a pivotal role as host of a number of leading Afghan figures who are opposed to Taliban rule, including Ahmad Massoud, who shares Tajik ethnicity, and whose troops are already engaged in active conflict with the Taliban in north-eastern Afghanistan.

A man collects water near a damaged house in the village of Ak-Say near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, some 1000 kilometres from Bishkek, on September 20. AFP
A man collects water near a damaged house in the village of Ak-Say near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, some 1000 kilometres from Bishkek, on September 20. AFP

When the west took its eye off Afghanistan before in the early 1990s, it led to a chain of events which ended in the attacks of 9/11. So we know the consequences of ignoring this region. The new outbreak of fighting has implications for the wider world in a region where great power rivalry has been in play since the days of the so-called Great Game between Britain and Russia in the nineteenth century. Russia has been exposed in Ukraine in the face of a determined enemy, and its capacity to influence events in Central Asia is now being challenged, leaving a dangerous power vacuum where regional conflicts may be more serious.

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Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

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Classification of skills

A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation. 

A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.

The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000. 

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The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

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Richard Flanagan
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Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor

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Transmission: 8-speed auto

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AVOID SCAMMERS: TIPS FROM EMIRATES NBD

1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details

2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet

3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details

4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure

5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs  (one-time passwords) with third parties

6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies

7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately

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  • Premier League-standard football pitch
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  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
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  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
  • Submit their request
What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
  • Never over populated areas
  • Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
  • Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
  • Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
  • Should have a live feed of the drone flight
  • Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
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Mini John Cooper Works Clubman and Mini John Cooper Works Countryman

Engine: two-litre 4-cylinder turbo

Transmission: nine-speed automatic

Power: 306hp

Torque: 450Nm

Price: JCW Clubman, Dh220,500; JCW Countryman, Dh225,500

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Jonny Macdonald
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The alternatives

• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.

• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.

• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.

• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.

• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases -  but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.

What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE

Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.

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Baftas 2020 winners

BEST FILM

  • 1917 - Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Jayne-Ann Tenggren
  • THE IRISHMAN - Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
  • JOKER - Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
  • PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho, Kwak Sin-ae

DIRECTOR

  • 1917 - Sam Mendes
  • THE IRISHMAN - Martin Scorsese
  • JOKER - Todd Phillips
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
  • PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

  • 1917 - Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Krysty Wilson-Cairns
  • BAIT - Mark Jenkin, Kate Byers, Linn Waite
  • FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
  • ROCKETMAN - Dexter Fletcher, Adam Bohling, David Furnish, David Reid, Matthew Vaughn, Lee Hall
  • SORRY WE MISSED YOU  - Ken Loach, Rebecca O’Brien, Paul Laverty
  • THE TWO POPES - Fernando Meirelles, Jonathan Eirich, Dan Lin, Tracey Seaward, Anthony McCarten

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

  • THE FAREWELL - Lulu Wang, Daniele Melia
  • FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
  • PAIN AND GLORY - Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar
  • PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
  • PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE - Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur

LEADING ACTRESS

  • JESSIE BUCKLEY - Wild Rose
  • SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Marriage Story
  • SAOIRSE RONAN - Little Women
  • CHARLIZE THERON - Bombshell
  • RENÉE ZELLWEGER - Judy

LEADING ACTOR

  • LEONARDO DICAPRIO - Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
  • ADAM DRIVER - Marriage Story
  • TARON EGERTON - Rocketman
  • JOAQUIN PHOENIX - Joker
  • JONATHAN PRYCE - The Two Popes

SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • TOM HANKS - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • ANTHONY HOPKINS - The Two Popes
  • AL PACINO - The Irishman
  • JOE PESCI - The Irishman
  • BRAD PITT - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • LAURA DERN - Marriage Story
  • SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Jojo Rabbit
  • FLORENCE PUGH - Little Women
  • MARGOT ROBBIE - Bombshell
  • MARGOT ROBBIE - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • THE IRISHMAN - Steven Zaillian
  • JOJO RABBIT - Taika Waititi
  • JOKER - Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
  • LITTLE WOMEN - Greta Gerwig
  • THE TWO POPES - Anthony McCarten

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • BOOKSMART - Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman
  • KNIVES OUT - Rian Johnson
  • MARRIAGE STORY - Noah Baumbach
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
  • PARASITE - Han Jin Won, Bong Joon ho

DOCUMENTARY

  • AMERICAN FACTORY - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
  • APOLLO 11 - Todd Douglas Miller
  • DIEGO MARADONA - Asif Kapadia
  • FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
  • THE GREAT HACK - Karim Amer, Jehane Noujaime

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

  • BAIT - Mark Jenkin (Writer/Director), Kate Byers, Linn Waite (Producers)
  • FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab (Director/Producer), Edward Watts (Director)
  • MAIDEN - Alex Holmes (Director)
  • ONLY YOU - Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director)
  • RETABLO - Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)

ANIMATED FILM

  • FROZEN 2 - Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho
  • KLAUS - Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh
  • A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON - Will Becher, Richard Phelan, Paul Kewley
  • TOY STORY 4 - Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen

CASTING

  • JOKER - Shayna Markowitz
  • MARRIAGE STORY - Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Victoria Thomas
  • THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD - Sarah Crowe
  • THE TWO POPES - Nina Gold

EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)

  • AWKWAFINA
  • JACK LOWDEN
  • KAITLYN DEVER
  • KELVIN HARRISON JR.
  • MICHEAL WARD

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • 1917 - Roger Deakins
  • THE IRISHMAN - Rodrigo Prieto
  • JOKER - Lawrence Sher
  • LE MANS ’66 - Phedon Papamichael
  • THE LIGHTHOUSE - Jarin Blaschke

EDITING

  • THE IRISHMAN - Thelma Schoonmaker
  • JOJO RABBIT - Tom Eagles
  • JOKER - Jeff Groth
  • LE MANS ’66 - Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Fred Raskin

COSTUME DESIGN

  • THE IRISHMAN - Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell
  • JOJO RABBIT - Mayes C. Rubeo
  • JUDY - Jany Temime
  • LITTLE WOMEN - Jacqueline Durran
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Arianne Phillips

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
  • THE IRISHMAN - Bob Shaw, Regina Graves
  • JOJO RABBIT - Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková
  • JOKER - Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh

SOUND

  • 1917 - Scott Millan, Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson
  • JOKER - Tod Maitland, Alan Robert Murray, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic
  • LE MANS ’66 - David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Steven A. Morrow, Donald Sylvester
  • ROCKETMAN - Matthew Collinge, John Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith, Danny Sheehan
  • STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood

ORIGINAL SCORE

  • 1917 - Thomas Newman
  • JOJO RABBIT - Michael Giacchino
  • JOKER - Hildur Guđnadóttir
  • LITTLE WOMEN - Alexandre Desplat
  • STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - John Williams

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

  • 1917 - Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy
  • AVENGERS: ENDGAME - Dan Deleeuw, Dan Sudick
  • THE IRISHMAN - Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, Pablo Helman
  • THE LION KING - Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez
  • STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy

MAKE UP & HAIR

  • 1917 - Naomi Donne
  • BOMBSHELL - Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan
  • JOKER - Kay Georgiou, Nicki Ledermann
  • JUDY - Jeremy Woodhead
  • ROCKETMAN - Lizzie Yianni Georgiou

BRITISH SHORT FILM

  • AZAAR - Myriam Raja, Nathanael Baring
  • GOLDFISH - Hector Dockrill, Harri Kamalanathan, Benedict Turnbull, Laura Dockrill
  • KAMALI - Sasha Rainbow, Rosalind Croad
  • LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) - Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva
  • THE TRAP - Lena Headey, Anthony Fitzgerald

BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION

  • GRANDAD WAS A ROMANTIC - Maryam Mohajer
  • IN HER BOOTS - Kathrin Steinbacher
  • THE MAGIC BOAT  - Naaman Azh
Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Updated: October 19, 2022, 8:44 AM
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