By all indications, the US midterm elections will be a nail-biter. Polls suggest that Democrats will have a difficult time maintaining their slim control of both houses of Congress. One factor is the president’s low approval ratings – often a sign that his party would be sailing into the headwinds of a dissatisfied electorate. But there are other issues at work, as well.
In the House of Representatives, Democratic prospects never looked promising. After the decennial redistricting congressional maps were finalised, Republicans came out ahead, with some Democratic seats eliminated and Republicans gaining enough new “safe” Republican districts to give them a structural edge to take control of the House. And so, despite some expressions of Democratic hope or bravado, it is quite unlikely that they will retain leadership in the House.
The Senate is a different story. There are 34 seats being contested – only 13 of them are incumbent Democrats, while 21 are Republicans. Of the 34, 10 are considered vulnerable, five in each party. Because the Senate is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, all Democrats need to do is break even to maintain their leadership of that body.
Two months ago, several factors pointed to an advantage for Democrats. Their Senate candidates were better, and polls showed that their issues were resonating with voters. Republicans had nominated a few far-right Trump-endorsed people who were “election deniers” and had, to be kind, less than exemplary resumes. It looked promising that Democrats would hold on to at least four of their five vulnerable seats, while being able to flip at least one or two of the currently held Republican seats.
In recent weeks, the situation has changed and polling in all these contests show them tightening to within a few points. What happened?
Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent by the campaigns, the parties, and outside partisan groups in an effort to paint these elections in the starkest of terms. Both sides have preyed on fear and blame. For Republicans it is: the fear of inflation, blaming Democrats for the high price of gas and food; the fear of crime, blaming Democrats for their criticism of policing; and the fear of out-of-control immigration, blaming Democrats for supporting “open borders” and their acceptance of the undocumented.
For Democrats it is: fear that Republicans will block all paths to a woman’s right to abortion; blaming Republicans for refusing to accept gun control legislation; and fear that American democracy is at risk from the supporters of former President Donald Trump, who not only maintain that the 2020 election was stolen, but also continue to defend the January 6th insurrection and those in a position to do so, are putting in place laws and practices designed to make it harder to vote.
The obscene amounts of money spent advertising these messages nationwide have served to deepen the treacherous partisan divide, making an already polarised political environment even more so. And they have played to the advantage of the Republicans.
Two recent polls explain how this has worked. The first, from NYT/Siena College, showed that “the share of voters citing the economy, inflation, crime, and immigration as the most important problem facing the country increased to 52 per cent, up 14 points from July.” The same poll found that the Democratic “issues of abortion, democracy, or guns dropped to 14 per cent from 26 per cent.”
The second poll was one released by the Democratic Party outlining their strategy focusing on abortion rights as the key issue that would motivate their voters to turn out and win in November. The presentation argued that when looking at each of the groups the poll identified as “key Democratic voters” (that is, young voters, educated women, and minority communities), all supported abortion rights. What the presentation ignored is that the issue of abortion is now seen as an important priority by only 5 per cent of all voters.
These polls explain why Democrats are focused on defending abortion rights and losing ground, while Republicans are railing against the increased cost of living and high crime rates. It also explains why in elections across the country, Republicans are either pulling ahead of Democrats or catching up with them in contests in which they were further behind just few months ago – Republican voters, even if they didn’t approve of their party’s nominees, have decided to come home.
This is not to say that abortion rights, the threat to democracy, or the horrible epidemic of gun violence are not critical issues facing America. What it does say is that, though important, they are not the top issues on the minds of voters. And as my father, a small grocer, would have said: “Listen to your customers or you might lose them to someone who will.” With less than one week to go and most key races too close to call, it will be a nail-biter. An unexpected and unlikely wind blowing in either direction could move the electorate one way or another. That said, at this point it seems probable that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate, while Republicans will assume leadership in the House.
With such an outcome, the good news for Democrats is that the president will continue to have his judges and other appointments confirmed. The bad news for the country is that is about all that will happen. Congress will be paralysed, and we could well see government shutdowns due to lack of agreement on funding. The far right in the Republican Party will challenge their leadership, demanding Benghazi-style hearings on any number of issues and maybe even an attempt at impeachment. It will be two nightmarish years of polarisation and dysfunction leading up to the 2024 national election – when we do it all over again.
Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
Feeding the thousands for iftar
Six industrial scale vats of 500litres each are used to cook the kanji or broth
Each vat contains kanji or porridge to feed 1,000 people
The rice porridge is poured into a 500ml plastic box
350 plastic tubs are placed in one container trolley
Each aluminium container trolley weighing 300kg is unloaded by a small crane fitted on a truck
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 4 (Mount 18',Werner 44', Hudson-Odoi 49', Havertz 85')
Morecambe 0
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
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Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
Company profile
Date started: December 24, 2018
Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer
Based: Dubai Media City
Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)
Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech
Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year
Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
