“Did you lose your ships in the Black Sea?” asks an old Turkish expression. It’s traditionally directed at a friend lost in thought or struggling with some mental conundrum, but it might be posed to Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu in a slightly more literal way.
Much like Istanbul, Turkey’s north-eastern Black Sea region has an outsized impact on the country’s discourse and political fortunes. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and several of his fellow AKP founders, along with many of their top deputies and staunchest supporters, hail from the region, as does the Istanbul Mayor.
Back in May, Mr Imamoglu toured his home province of Trabzon, as well as neighbouring Rize, Mr Erdogan’s home province, over the Eid Al Fitr holiday. He drew adoring crowds, but came under sharp criticism when a photo of his press pool revealed that he had brought along a former pro-AKP journalist widely thought to have unfairly persecuted government critics.
The Mayor probably made matters worse with his response to the complaints. “There may be some people who want to sacrifice me over one photo,” he said. “I do not care at all.”
Mr Imamoglu’s political star – for years the brightest in the opposition firmament – has since seemed to fade with each passing day. Weeks later, during Eid Al Adha, he was again away from Istanbul – this time on holiday along the Turkish Riviera – when the city was hit with major floods, and again faced strong criticism from his supporters.
Around that time, reports emerged that the longtime leader of Mr Imamoglu’s main opposition CHP, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, would run as the party’s candidate in next year’s presidential election. Mr Imamoglu and his fellow CHP Mayor, Mansur Yavas of Ankara, have consistently outperformed their boss, as well as Mr Erdogan, in head-to-head polls.
An election based on security issues, as in 2015, favours the governing coalition
In fact, none of the likely opposition candidates has polled as poorly against Mr Erdogan as Mr Kilicdaroglu. The CHP and its six-party opposition alliance have yet to choose their candidate, and just last week a top opposition MP expressed concerns that Mr Kilicdaroglu would be unable to win. So there may still be hope for Mr Imamoglu.
Yet, he happens to be on trial at the moment, facing a potential political ban and up to four years in prison for insulting Turkey’s top election board. The verdict could come any day, and many expect the popular Istanbul Mayor to be found guilty despite the questionable charges.
As if all this weren’t enough, two days after his trial began, Istanbul’s main pedestrian thoroughfare was struck with a bomb blast that killed six people and injured dozens, recalling for many the politically driven violence that shook the country in 2015-16.
Istanbul and Turkey suffered half a dozen major attacks in this period, as well as intense fighting between the government and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has led a decades-long insurgency in the country’s south-east and is labelled a terror group by the US, EU and Turkey.
In June 2015, weeks before the violence began, the AKP lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since coming to power. But the vote resulted in a hung parliament, so Mr Erdogan called for a redo. Five months later, with the militant PKK under military assault and nationalist sentiment running high, the AKP regained its majority.
Within hours of the latest bombing, Turkish authorities arrested a Syrian Arab woman as the main suspect and blamed the attack on the PKK and its Syrian ally, the YPG. Both have denied involvement, and observers have wondered why a trained terrorist would be caught on camera planting a bomb then return to her home rather than flee, and why an Arab woman would commit such a brazen and deadly crime for a Kurdish group.
On Saturday authorities made further arrests, including a few Moldovans, which would seem to point in another direction. Even so, early on Sunday Ankara launched fresh strikes on northern Syria, killing at least two YPG fighters. On Monday, the YPG appeared to retaliate, as Turkish outlets reported three civilians killed in strikes in the border province of Gaziantep.
Many also expect the government to move against the Kurdish-led HDP, with arrests or even a blanket ban, and Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu has vowed to reveal links between terror groups and the Imamoglu-run Istanbul municipality this week. However cynical all this might seem, it’s also politically astute. Amid rampant inflation and growing poverty, an election based on security issues, as in 2015, favours the governing coalition a great deal more than one centred on the economy.
The AKP will gain a further boost from its newly enhanced ability to control the flow of information. Immediately after the bombing, authorities blocked top social media platforms Twitter, Instagram, YouTube and Facebook for more than 10 hours. Along with a recently passed censorship law that makes just about any troubling statement a potentially jailable offence, the space for public discussion and debate has shrunk.
Add it all up and the outlook for the Istanbul Mayor, and perhaps the opposition more broadly, is dimmer than it’s been since his June 2019 electoral victory. Of course, this would all turn around in an instant if Mr Imamoglu is acquitted then named the opposition candidate.
For now that seems unlikely. A year ago, I detailed the many parallels between Mr Erdogan and Mr Imamoglu. We may soon add one more: banned from politics while serving as Istanbul Mayor and sent to prison. That would surely mark Mr Imamoglu’s political ship being lost at sea.
But in Mr Erdogan’s case, the conviction and four-month jail stint gave him the heroic air of a martyr, and three years after his release his new party came to power. Could lightning strike in prison again? In Turkish politics, anything is possible.
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
What should do investors do now?
What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor?
Should I be euphoric?
No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.
So what happened?
It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.
"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."
Should I buy? Should I sell?
Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.
"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.
All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.
Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.
Will the rally last?
No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.
"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
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In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
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Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m, Winner: Zalman, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Hisham Al Khalediah II, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash.
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Qader, Adrie de Vries, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh180,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Mujeeb, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Shanaghai City, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly
8pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 1,400m, Winner: Nayslayer, Bernardo Pinheiro, Jaber Ramadhan
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Silent Hill f
Publisher: Konami
Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC
Rating: 4.5/5
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
UAE finals day
Friday, April 13
Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
3pm, UAE Conference: Dubai Tigers v Sharjah Wanderers
6.30pm, UAE Premiership: Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Monster
Directed by: Anthony Mandler
Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington
3/5
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
Racecard
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'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
MATCH INFO
Osasuna 1 Real Madrid 4
Osasuna: García (14')
Real Madrid: Isco (33'), Ramos (38'), Vázquez (84'), Jovic (90' 2)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
