Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
December 18, 2022
In past weeks, I explained how the GCC member states adeptly found their strategic direction in 2022, and are in the midst of realigning regionally and internationally.
The grouping, helmed by Secretary General Nayef Al Hajraf, is working to implement the vision of its six member states with pragmatism, efficiency and strategic guile. Opportunities are arising thanks to shrewd decisions, pursued through road maps that don’t prejudice strong security relations with the US-led West, and at the same time don’t shy away from exploring new economic and strategic horizons with the East, especially China.
It's now worth turning our attention to Iran and Turkey, the region's other notable powers, to see how they have fared this year.
Let's begin with Iran by stating, in a nutshell, that it has lost its strategic direction. The regime lost its bearing following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Riyadh this month and the final communiques of his three summits with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and the Arab states were released. The regime is also suffering the repercussions of its involvement in the Ukraine war alongside Russia in opposition to Europe. The protests at home, which it has tried to suppress through executions and the killing of young women and men, remain a challenge for the regime.
The final communiques of the Riyadh summits brought a shock to the Iranian regime, with Beijing adopting stances Tehran had not expected it would take, and leading some to accuse the regime of “ideological blindness” that prevented its leaders from having a realistic reading of China.
From Iran’s nuclear programme and its regional activities, to the three Emirati islands occupied by Tehran, China took positions that dealt painful blows to the regime. Indeed, Tehran had wagered that its 25-year comprehensive strategic pact with Beijing would cushion it from US-led sanctions, and serve as a sharp instrument in its regional plans and in its stand-off with the West.
The Riyadh summits poured cold water over Iran’s attempts to pivot to the East. Some now fear that Tehran’s economic bets on China could collapse, believing what happened to be a dangerous deviation from the pact the two sides signed last year.
Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China, leaves Riyadh. SPA
Mr Xi during the China-Arab Summit in Riyadh. AFP
Mr Xi and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. AP
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani and Mr Xi.
Saudi Arabia's King Salman welcomes Mr Xi to Riyadh. EPA
The Chinese president is on a three-day working visit to Saudi Arabia. EPA
He will attend a GCC summit, a wider China-Arab conference and also seek to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia. EPA
Saudi Arabia and China signed agreements on 'harmonising' the kingdom's Vision 2030 plan and China's Belt and Road Initiative on Thursday. EPA
The new agreements also covered judicial assistance, direct investments, education and hydrogen energy. EPA
King Salman and Mr Xi agreed to hold meetings every two years. AFP
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomes Mr Xi during a ceremony in the capital, Riyadh. AFP
Mr Xi met Prince Mohammed on the second day of his state visit to Saudi Arabia. Reuters
They shook hands in the Royal Court in Riyadh before Prince Mohammed led Mr Xi inside to meet King Salman. AFP
Mr Xi will attend the inaugural China-Arab States Summit. Saudi Press Agency
It is only Mr Xi's third overseas visit since the outbreak of Covid-19. SPA
Mr Xi is greeted by Prince Faisal bin Bandar, Governor of Riyadh. SPA
A billboard welcomes the Chinese president to Saudi Arabia. AFP
Saudi and Chinese flags adorn a street a street in Riyadh before the arrival of Mr Xi. AFP
It is clear now that for the Iranian regime, this is no fleeting crisis but an existential one
Russia has also contributed to Iran’s strategic confusion.
By supplying advanced drones to Moscow for their use in the Ukraine war, Tehran has effectively pitted itself against Nato and drawn the ire of the Europeans. Apart from its involvement on the battlefield jamming the brakes on its long-standing assumption of European support in the nuclear negotiations, it has also invited sanctions from them.
In short, Iran’s European compass has been put completely out of whack. It now has little option but to double down on its alliance with Russia in Ukraine, as is the case in Syria.
Indeed, weapons deals between Russia and Iran are worth billions of dollars. Both countries have a number of other shared interests, from the Caspian Sea to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Then there is the crucial nuclear issue: if tensions with the West escalate even further, Moscow could realistically offer Tehran assistance to continue its nuclear programme.
In the region, Russia remains a key conduit for Iran, while Turkey remains a threat to both countries' interests, especially in Syria. There is also Israel, which causes Iran much worry and Russia no small measure of trouble. But if Tehran decides to embark on an adventure – and not just a bluff – of launching pre-emptive strikes on Israel, the West will not stand idly by.
In summation, China has circumvented Iran in the Gulf, and its new policies could lead to a reining-in of Tehran’s activities in Yemen. Russia has implicated Iran in Europe, and this could invite joint US-European pressures to rein in Tehran's activities in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, directly and by supporting Israel’s activities in Syria. At home, the regime has encircled itself through repression and exposed its moral bankruptcy in the eyes of the world.
It is clear now that this is no fleeting crisis, but an existential one for it.
For its part, Turkey is climbing up Nato’s strategic ropes, sponsoring initiatives such as the grain export deal with Russia and Ukraine, engaging with Moscow on Syria, and launching projects with it to become a natural gas export and trade hub.
This week, Turkey struck a calmer tone in Syria. It had previously threatened to establish a buffer zone inside its territory on the pretext of protecting its national interests and countering terrorism. Ankara went too far in its threats, then relented thanks to a Russian backstop, for reasons related to the Ukraine war, natural gas and elections.
Right now, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears confident on the world stage. The Ukraine crisis has boosted his profile inside Nato. It has increased Ankara's leverage over the US, the Europeans and Russia. During the TRT World Forum in Istanbul last week, a Turkish sense of triumph over the grain deal was clear, and Mr Erdogan appeared confident that Ankara can play a distinguished role in the region and the world.
A giant mural painting, titled 'Absent', depicts a Ukrainian woman embracing a vanishing figure on the side of a building in Berlin on Saturday. AFP
To Russian President Vladimir Putin, he suggested establishing a trilateral mechanism in Syria (also involving Iran) to expedite their diplomatic process. This would begin with a meeting between the three countries’ security services, followed by a meeting of their ministers of defence, then their foreign ministers, culminating with a presidential summit. According to Mr Erdogan, Mr Putin responded positively, bearing in mind that it was the latter who had persuaded Mr Erdogan to pause his march on Syria and talk directly to President Bashar Al Assad.
Mr Putin seeks an end to the turbulence in Syria. Like Mr Erdogan, he needs a diplomatic victory that would allow him to save face amid other challenges. The problem is that trust among the various stakeholders remains in deficit.
Moscow, meanwhile, has proposed establishing a natural gas hub in Turkey, eyeing exports to foreign markets. Ankara is working to become an international natural gas trading hub, viewing itself as a natural choice, being home to seven international liquefied gas pipelines. This is a crucial relationship for both Turkey and Russia, and it must undoubtedly have shaped the Turkish equation in Syria and its Russian dimensions.
Important for Ankara right now is to fix its strategic compass, bearing in mind that its leadership has a difficult history with various players – from the US to Europe, Russia, Iran, the Arab states and Israel.
Turkey today is a key player in the Ukraine crisis and has benefited from it at the levels of its diplomacy and energy agenda. But one of the big challenges for it is at home, where the margin of freedoms is narrowing and where Turkey is threatening to become a one-party state. This is not in the country’s interests, despite its march towards normalising relations and seeking reconciliation with its neighbours.
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
SQUADS
UAE
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice-captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
Engine: Duel electric motors Power: 659hp Torque: 1075Nm On sale: Available for pre-order now Price: On request
MWTC
Tickets start from Dh100 for adults and are now on sale at www.ticketmaster.ae and Virgin Megastores across the UAE. Three-day and travel packages are also available at 20 per cent discount.
How much of your income do you need to save?
The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.
In other words, you will not save enough to retire comfortably. If you save 15 per cent, you can forward to another 43 working years. Up that to 40 per cent of your income, and your remaining working life drops to just 22 years. (see table)
Obviously, this is only a rough guide. How much you save will depend on variables, not least your salary and how much you already have in your pension pot. But it shows what you need to do to achieve financial independence.
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples. Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts. Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
How to apply for a drone permit
Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
Submit their request
What are the regulations?
Fly it within visual line of sight
Never over populated areas
Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
Both matches at ICC Academy, Dubai. Admission is free.
1st match: Friday, 2pm
2nd match: Saturday, 2pm
UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Rameez Shahzad, Amjad Gul, CP Rizwan, Mohammed Boota, Abdul Shakoor, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Sultan Ahmed, Zahoor Khan, Amir Hayat
USA squad: Saurabh Netravalkar (captain), Jaskaran Malhotra, Elmore Hutchinson, Aaron Jones, Nosthush Kenjige, Ali Khan, Jannisar Khan, Xavier Marshall, Monank Patel, Timil Patel, Roy Silva, Jessy Singh, Steven Taylor, Hayden Walsh
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based:Dubai
Founders:Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector:Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees:4
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah 5.10pm: Continous 5.45pm: Raging Torrent 6.20pm: West Acre 7pm: Flood Zone 7.40pm: Straight No Chaser 8.15pm: Romantic Warrior 8.50pm: Calandogan 9.30pm: Forever Young
Results:
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 2,000m - Winner: Powderhouse, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
Look north
BBC business reporters, like a new raft of government officials, are being removed from the national and international hub of London and surely the quality of their work must suffer.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
