Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
January 15, 2023
There are conflicting views on how the Iranian regime will rein in the country's domestic crisis, maintain its foothold in the region, and shore up its strategic alliance with Russia in its war with Ukraine and the West.
But one thing in common is anticipation that military developments in the coming six months could shape the regime's fate. That is, either Israel will carry out military attacks to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, as has been speculated by some strategic thinkers, or Iran will carry out pre-emptive attacks against Israel and in the Strait of Hormuz, to shield the regime from both domestic and foreign threats.
There is a huge gulf between these two scenarios.
Those close to the regime discount in absolute terms the possibility of its downfall. They believe it will weather the storm thanks to its leverage, which includes sabotage and warfare. They anticipate that the regime will soon instigate actions to create a crisis in the region, in order to escape domestic pressures. However, the proponents of the opposing view underscore the chaos gripping the regime to argue that it will get closer to a collapse, especially in the aftermath of possible Israeli military attacks that will cripple its nuclear programme, thereby altering the domestic equation.
A careful assessment of the situation in Iran indicates that the regime indeed needs to protect itself and ensure its survival by all means and at any cost.
An Iranian drone is launched from a warship during a drill. AP Photo
The regime's priority would be to maintain the gains made by the IRGC in the region
It is right now preoccupied with clearing out those it doesn’t trust within its ranks and taking measures to protect its various organs. Its crackdown on the ongoing protests will also continue. The regime is angry but probably unperturbed by the implications of creating a regional crisis to deflect attention away from Iran's restive interior and its weak position vis-a-vis a hostile population. However, the key question here is: will it risk carrying out operations abroad in the next three months, or will it focus strictly on containing domestic developments and extinguishing the uprising?
A veteran Gulf expert I spoke to believes that the regime will not fall except if the cause is linked to nuclear armament. Iran, he said, will have to choose between the nuclear weapon it is building and the nuclear weapon that could destroy it.
Indeed, there is a general impression that Israel could carry out attacks inside Iran to stop it from acquiring the bomb. Some suggest they could happen in the next six months. The US might not get involved directly, but the West more broadly could provide political immunity – and possibly even air support – to Israel.
The development of nuclear weapons, advocated for by some in the Iranian regime for the purpose of deterrence, could thus become the trigger that topples it.
Some in the regime, however, believe that the Iranian people will be swept by nationalist fervour if their country comes under attack, and will rally around the regime, rather than against it. But the opposite could be true, too, with popular anger against the regime intensifying even further. Either way, Iran's fate could be determined by its nuclear weapons programme over the next eight months, with the programme's timeline practically dictating the timing.
As the regime prepares for a possible confrontation, it will seek to secure its regional bases, which are the most important means available to it to deflect attention away from its vulnerabilities.
In this context, its priority would be to maintain the gains made by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and play all its cards to ensure its survival. This means shoring up its positions in the region, of vital importance if it intends to carry out pre-emptive military operations against Israel. It is not clear, however, whether the regime's talk about such pre-emptive attacks is a bluff or not.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian talks to Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, in Amman last month. EPA
The regime has decided to link its strategic fate to that of Russia. It is working to reinforce the alliance, including military-economic co-operation, amid growing international sanctions against both countries. According to a Bloomberg report, Russia is losing an estimated $172 million a day following western embargoes on its oil exports. Its gas exports have dropped by 80 per cent. By early February, sanctions on other petroleum products such as diesel will come into effect, increasing Russia’s losses to $220 million a day.
One expert on Russian-Iranian relations believes that a crisis engineered by Iran in the region, for example in the Strait of Hormuz, could be expedient for Russia. Tehran's operations in the strategic waterway might trigger a regional crisis that could help Russia, because it will lead to an immediate jump in oil prices. The expert’s view is that none of the western nations, already preoccupied with internal challenges, will intervene if Tehran carries out attacks in the Strait.
But according to a former senior Gulf official, this is wishful thinking because "the Iranians will not sacrifice themselves for the sake of Russia”. In his view, Tehran will not venture into sabotage in the Strait because of its own domestic preoccupations and the high cost of such a move.
Moscow’s problem is that it is nowhere near achieving its objectives in Ukraine almost a year after it launched its so-called special military operation. Its wins on the battlefield are few and far between, with some of them attributed to Russian-backed mercenary groups rather than its own army. There are no peaceful solutions on the horizon, and so far no initiatives for a ceasefire. Offensives on both sides are, in fact, likely to increase with a view to alter the facts on the ground.
The Moscow-Tehran alliance will not back down in Ukraine, in the Middle East, or within Iran's borders. Much attention in the coming months will, therefore, be on the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It is these men who, for now, hold the element of surprise.
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures May 9, v Malaysia May 10, v Qatar May 13, v Malaysia May 15, v Qatar May 18 and 19, semi-finals May 20, final
What is type-1 diabetes
Type 1 diabetes is a genetic and unavoidable condition, rather than the lifestyle-related type 2 diabetes.
It occurs mostly in people under 40 and a result of the pancreas failing to produce enough insulin to regulate blood sugars.
Too much or too little blood sugar can result in an attack where sufferers lose consciousness in serious cases.
Being overweight or obese increases the chances of developing the more common type 2 diabetes.
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany - At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people - Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed - Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest - He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Moment of the day Lahiru Gamage, the Sri Lanka pace bowler, has had to play a lot of cricket to earn a shot at the top level. The 29-year-old debutant first played a first-class game 11 years ago. His first Test wicket was one to savour, bowling Pakistan opener Shan Masood through the gate. It set the rot in motion for Pakistan’s batting.
Stat of the day – 73 Haris Sohail took 73 balls to hit a boundary. Which is a peculiar quirk, given the aggressive intent he showed from the off. Pakistan’s batsmen were implored to attack Rangana Herath after their implosion against his left-arm spin in Abu Dhabi. Haris did his best to oblige, smacking the second ball he faced for a huge straight six.
The verdict One year ago, when Pakistan played their first day-night Test at this ground, they held a 222-run lead over West Indies on first innings. The away side still pushed their hosts relatively close on the final night. With the opposite almost exactly the case this time around, Pakistan still have to hope they can salvage a win from somewhere.
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
What: Brazil v South Korea When: Tonight, 5.30pm Where: Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi Tickets:www.ticketmaster.ae
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
UAE rugby in numbers
5 - Year sponsorship deal between Hesco and Jebel Ali Dragons
700 - Dubai Hurricanes had more than 700 playing members last season between their mini and youth, men's and women's teams
Dh600,000 - Dubai Exiles' budget for pitch and court hire next season, for their rugby, netball and cricket teams
Dh1.8m - Dubai Hurricanes' overall budget for next season
Dh2.8m - Dubai Exiles’ overall budget for next season
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Profile
Co-founders of the company: Vilhelm Hedberg and Ravi Bhusari
Launch year: In 2016 ekar launched and signed an agreement with Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi. In January 2017 ekar launched in Dubai in a partnership with the RTA.
Number of employees: Over 50
Financing stage: Series B currently being finalised
Investors: Series A - Audacia Capital
Sector of operation: Transport
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
8.15pm: Dubawi Stakes Group 3 (D) | $200,000 | 1,200m
8.50pm: Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (T) | $200,000 | 1,800m
9.25pm: Handicap (T) | $175,000 | 1,400m
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm
Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh130,000
On sale: now
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
If you go: The flights: Etihad, Emirates, British Airways and Virgin all fly from the UAE to London from Dh2,700 return, including taxes The tours: The Tour for Muggles usually runs several times a day, lasts about two-and-a-half hours and costs £14 (Dh67) Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is on now at the Palace Theatre. Tickets need booking significantly in advance
Entrance to the Harry Potter exhibition at the House of MinaLima is free The hotel: The grand, 1909-built Strand Palace Hotel is in a handy location near the Theatre District and several of the key Harry Potter filming and inspiration sites. The family rooms are spacious, with sofa beds that can accommodate children, and wooden shutters that keep out the light at night. Rooms cost from £170 (Dh808).
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood. Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues. Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity. Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
