It’s a mystery, wrapped in an enigma, hidden inside an unshakable political will.
If you had said a few months ago that Turkey would suffer cataclysmic earthquakes, killing 50,000 people and levelling cities as the state faced much of the blame, the lira would plunge to new record lows, nearing the dreaded 20-to-the-dollar mark and deepening a three-year economic crisis, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be essentially tied with his main foe four weeks before the election, I may have advised you to visit a psychiatrist.
Yet here we are, with a collection of early April polls putting the main opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu at 45.7 per cent support and Mr Erdogan just a hair behind at 45.5 per cent. The actual gap may be a bit larger, as the other candidates in the May 14 presidential vote, particularly Muharram Ince, likely siphon more votes away from Mr Kilicdaroglu, which would not be the case in a potential May 28 run-off.
But still, for now, the tightness of the race is stunning. Nearly two years ago I detailed in these pages Mr Erdogan’s political resilience and wondered how he might bounce back this time. Well, he seems to have done so, but precisely how is anybody’s guess.
After 20 years in power — more than a fifth of the history of the Republic, which celebrates its 100th birthday in October — Turkey’s long-time leader appears to have established a mind-meld with nearly 40 per cent of the electorate. No matter what sort of trauma his Justice & Development Party (AKP) and the country pass through, they stay by his side.
Consider the loss of his brain trust, an issue of particular import amid crippling economic troubles and accusations of corruption and mismanagement. Nearly a decade ago, Mr Erdogan lost his second-in-command, a fellow AKP co-founder and perhaps the party’s most trusted voice: former president Abdullah Gul. Though a committed Islamist, Mr Gul was politically moderate, and so widely respected that several opposition parties have sought to recruit him.
In 2019, Mr Erdogan lost the architect of his foreign policy, Ahmet Davutoglu, who then launched the Future Party and has since joined the opposition alliance. Most troubling, he has lost both architects of his early economic success, Mehmet Simsek and Ali Babacan. Like Mr Davutoglu, Mr Babacan also launched his own party and joined the opposition; both are in line for vice presidential posts should Mr Kilicdaroglu win the presidency.
As for Mr Simsek, Mr Erdogan has in recent weeks asserted that the former finance minister would return to oversee his economic policy, but Mr Simsek has refrained from any public confirmation. Meanwhile, the AKP released its electoral manifesto last week, which focused on economic revival without laying out any major changes or advancements.
To win, Mr Erdogan likely needs to appeal to the country’s six million first-time voters, many of whom are unemployed, as well as the urban middle classes facing tough times, particularly in the quake-ravaged southeast. He has vowed to jumpstart the economy and bring inflation, currently around 50 per cent, down to single digits, even while maintaining the unorthodox view that high interest rates spur inflation. He has also pledged to rebuild quickly, including some 320,000 new housing units within a year.
Another wise move may be to target nationalistic swing voters torn between the Kemalist vision of Mr Kilicdaroglu’s CHP and its far-right ally IYI and the religion-influence nationalism of the AKP and its partner the MHP. Mr Erdogan may be doing just that, rolling out gleaming new military hardware to boost Turkish pride and leaning into anti-Western rhetoric.
Turkey’s long-time leader appears to have established a mind-meld with nearly 40 per cent of the electorate
“The West is saying it is against Erdogan,” he declared last week, referring to himself in the third person. “My nation will foil this plot on May 14.”
As befits the party of the republic’s secularist founder, Ataturk (“father of the Turks”), the main opposition CHP is embracing pro-western views. Mr Babacan earned his MBA in the US and the opposition alliance’s other economic adviser, IYI’s Bilge Yilmaz, is a former Ivy League professor. Observers expect the opposition to institute an orthodox economic approach that upends Mr Erdogan’s stance on interest rates and inflation.
Mr Kilicdaroglu officially launched his campaign last week in Canakkale, where a young Ataturk first made his name by helping repel a major Allied advance in the Dardenelles Strait in 1915. "We must change the old system and bring democracy, justice and the rule of law,” said a CHP supporter in the crowd.
Mr Kilicdaroglu recently met the US Ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, drawing condemnation from President Erdogan, and has vowed to gain Turks visa-free travel to the EU soon after taking office. Ataturk was not exactly a friend to Turkey’s religious conservatives, so it almost seemed intentional when Mr Kilicdaroglu was photographed last month standing on a prayer rug with his shoes on. He later apologised for the misstep.
Finally, Mr Erdogan has settled into a new presidential system with little apparent concern for term limits. Turkey’s electoral council recently approved his candidacy after critics argued that he had already served the maximum two terms. His 74-year-old opponent, on the other hand, has vowed to serve only one term — just long enough, in his view, to reinstall the old parliamentary system and restore order.
There has been some crossing of lines, as was seen in the case of a group of graduates from a religion-focused Imam Hatip school who recently declared their support for Mr Kilicdaroglu. So it’s a bit of an over-simplification, but this election could be viewed as another referendum on Turkish identity: it’s West vs East, progressive vs conservative, liberal democracy vs a more authoritarian system. Turkey’s been waging this battle for a century, but these days it’s far from alone: we’ve seen echoes of it in Ukraine, Hungary, Poland, India, Brazil and even the US.
In recent years he’s surely been buoyed by a more compliant press, but Mr Erdogan has never lost a national vote. He has lost cities, and in 2015, his parliamentary majority. But since the AKP launched in 2001, neither he nor the party has ever been beaten in a nationwide contest, through two referenda, six parliamentary elections and three presidential votes.
That stunning record now faces its greatest test. Can Mr Erdogan win yet again without offering anything new? We’ll soon know whether he has succeeding in building his “New Turkey”, or if Ataturk’s children have decided the grass on the other side is not so green after all.
Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
How to help
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Rock in a Hard Place: Music and Mayhem in the Middle East
Orlando Crowcroft
Zed Books
How to donate
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10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
FIGHT CARD
Sara El Bakkali v Anisha Kadka (Lightweight, female)
Mohammed Adil Al Debi v Moaz Abdelgawad (Bantamweight)
Amir Boureslan v Mahmoud Zanouny (Welterweight)
Abrorbek Madaminbekov v Mohammed Al Katheeri (Featherweight)
Ibrahem Bilal v Emad Arafa (Super featherweight)
Ahmed Abdolaziz v Imad Essassi (Middleweight)
Milena Martinou v Ilham Bourakkadi (Bantamweight, female)
Noureddine El Agouti v Mohamed Mardi (Welterweight)
Nabil Ouach v Ymad Atrous (Middleweight)
Nouredin Samir v Zainalabid Dadachev (Lightweight)
Marlon Ribeiro v Mehdi Oubahammou (Welterweight)
Brad Stanton v Mohamed El Boukhari (Super welterweight
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
$1,000 award for 1,000 days on madrasa portal
Daily cash awards of $1,000 dollars will sweeten the Madrasa e-learning project by tempting more pupils to an education portal to deepen their understanding of math and sciences.
School children are required to watch an educational video each day and answer a question related to it. They then enter into a raffle draw for the $1,000 prize.
“We are targeting everyone who wants to learn. This will be $1,000 for 1,000 days so there will be a winner every day for 1,000 days,” said Sara Al Nuaimi, project manager of the Madrasa e-learning platform that was launched on Tuesday by the Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, to reach Arab pupils from kindergarten to grade 12 with educational videos.
“The objective of the Madrasa is to become the number one reference for all Arab students in the world. The 5,000 videos we have online is just the beginning, we have big ambitions. Today in the Arab world there are 50 million students. We want to reach everyone who is willing to learn.”
Mountain%20Boy
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'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
DUBAI SEVENS 2018 DRAW
Gulf Men’s League
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Sports City Eagles
Pool B – Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf Men’s Open
Pool A – Bahrain Firbolgs, Arabian Knights, Yalla Rugby, Muscat
Pool B – Amman Citadel, APB Dubai Sharks, Jebel Ali Dragons 2, Saudi Rugby
Pool C – Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2, Roberts Construction, Dubai Exiles 2
Pool D – Dubai Tigers, UAE Shaheen, Sharjah Wanderers, Amman Citadel 2
Gulf U19 Boys
Pool A – Deira International School, Dubai Hurricanes, British School Al Khubairat, Jumeirah English Speaking School B
Pool B – Dubai English Speaking College 2, Jumeirah College, Dubai College A, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2
Pool C – Bahrain Colts, Al Yasmina School, DESC, DC B
Pool D – Al Ain Amblers, Repton Royals, Dubai Exiles, Gems World Academy Dubai
Pool E – JESS A, Abu Dhabi Sharks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 1, EC
Gulf Women
Pool A – Kuwait Scorpions, Black Ruggers, Dubai Sports City Eagles, Dubai Hurricanes 2
Pool B – Emirates Firebirds, Sharjah Wanderers, RAK Rides, Beirut Aconites
Pool C – Dubai Hurricanes, Emirates Firebirds 2, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Transforma Panthers
Pool D – AUC Wolves, Dubai Hawks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf U19 Girls
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, BSAK, DESC, Al Maha
Pool B – Arabian Knights, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Ain Amblers, Abu Dhabi Harlequins
more from Janine di Giovanni
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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The Uefa Awards winners
Uefa Men's Player of the Year: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Uefa Women's Player of the Year: Lucy Bronze (Lyon)
Best players of the 2018/19 Uefa Champions League
Goalkeeper: Alisson (Liverpool)
Defender: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Midfielder: Frenkie de Jong (Ajax)
Forward: Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
Uefa President's Award: Eric Cantona
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Where to Find Me by Alba Arikha
Alma Books
