Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
October 14, 2023
Israel is unlikely to emerge victorious in the war in Gaza, and Hamas is equally unlikely to surpass the psychological victory it achieved on October 7. The US may manage to navigate a way out of the crisis without becoming directly involved, perhaps through a new plan to address the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that involves Arab and European participation, and implicit understandings with Iran.
People (mainly in the US and Europe) who are uncritically supportive of Israel will not understand those (mainly in the Arab and Islamic worlds, but also in the West) who contextualise Hamas's shock attack within the history of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian land and siege of the Gaza Strip. Both sides denounce each other without trying to understand or listen to the opposing viewpoint. But it is important also to note the astonishment felt by everyone about what Hamas has done by carrying out such a complex and daring operation. Indeed, most of the world did not anticipate such a failure in Israel's intelligence capabilities and performance.
The Israeli response, led by the devastating bombardment of Gaza and the forced displacement of civilians, has eroded some of the initial sympathy felt in the West. Now, the world is divided between those who support Israel's bid to crush Hamas at any cost and those warning against the folly of this and the political and military costs, not just the exorbitant human cost.
Any resolution will ultimately depend on Iran's final decision regarding Hamas's call to Tehran and its allies to activate all "resistance fronts", starting with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. But at the time of writing, Iran has moved cautiously in the diplomatic arena to avoid slipping off the tightrope. Six days on from Hamas's operation, it remained off the battlefield and advised Hezbollah to exercise prudence.
Iran's priority is its nuclear programme. Tehran may not want to jump into the fire with Israel when it is reported to be six months away from getting that programme to a level where it can deliver a bomb. It will also have read the message sent by the US in the form of the deployment of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier to the region: that Washington would be prepared to resort to force, potentially targeting nuclear facilities, if Tehran miscalculated. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has openly denied involvement in Hamas's operations, indicating American deterrence is still working.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden’s administration has, it seems, also worked to address the other side of this challenge by trying to convince Israel to scale back its plans for a ground invasion of Gaza, work with Egypt to secure a safe passage for civilians from Gaza, pressure Hamas through Qatar's leverage and engage with Arab and European leaders to formulate an alternative peace plan. The latter would likely start with freezing this crisis in its tracks and moving towards new negotiations under US sponsorship.
Washington’s anxiety over getting dragged into participating in a military conflict because of decisions made by Israel or Iran is evident. Then there is the unavoidable humanitarian catastrophe resulting from an Israeli ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. Indeed, the US has a heavy burden on its shoulders. It may succeed in leveraging its military, political, and diplomatic weight in Israel, a country it has committed itself time and again to defending.
Washington’s anxiety over getting dragged into a military conflict because of decisions made by Israel or Iran is evident
The Biden administration, moreover, was working for a qualitative shift in Arab-Israeli relations. But what it missed and is paying the price for today is that this qualitative shift is impossible if it ignores the Palestinians and their rights. Hamas's achievement is that it has awakened everyone involved and managed to undermine the assumption that the Palestinian issue had been settled among Arab governments, in the Arab and Muslim streets and on the international stage.
A forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza would be in line with a broader policy held by the most extremist camp in Israel of advocating for the expulsion of all Palestinians – even those in the West Bank and Israel proper. This camp believes Palestinians, even those with Israeli citizenship, pose a permanent demographic challenge. From this perspective, the epic proportions of Hamas's attack may ultimately serve extremist Israeli goals more than Palestinian aspirations, by providing the pretext needed for forced displacement.
That displacement would also put Egypt in a predicament. Cairo will be aware that some in Israel advocate for the resettlement of Gazan refugees in Sinai. Yet closing the border to Palestinian civilians to thwart the Israeli strategy is not an easy option, as its humanitarian cost is high and would unfold under the world's watchful eyes. Egypt is caught between a rock and a hard place, and President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, like Mr Biden, has a presidential election to worry about.
If the Biden administration wishes to seize the diplomatic and political initiatives, it must have the courage to compel its ally, Israel, to adopt a new approach towards the Palestinians.
And the Palestinians themselves, particularly the Palestinian Authority (PA), are now under more scrutiny than ever. If the PA continues in its stagnation and obsolete methods, it will miss a historic opportunity inadvertently provided by Hamas. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas must rejuvenate himself and surround himself with younger advisers instead of dwelling on the past and the methods of rejection and boycotting negotiations with Israel. This is an opportunity for him to tell the youth of Hamas, not just the youth of his own party Fatah, that now is the opportune time to engage together in a new peace process with Israel, with Arab participation and perhaps later with Iranian blessing.
The Israelis, for their part, must find a way to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and open an opportunity for a realistic and honest review of the miseries brought about by religious and political extremism on them and others. It is time for the Israeli people to hold themselves and their leaders accountable and to seize this bitter moment to create a pathway to justice for the Palestinians, freeing themselves from the siege mentality and living in peace with their neighbours – if they change their ways.
Super Saturday results
4pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 | US$350,000 | (Dirt) | 1,200m
Winner: Drafted, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
4.35pm: Al Bastakiya Listed | $300,000 | (D) | 1,900m
Winner: Divine Image, Brett Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 | $350,000 | (Turf) | 1,200m
Winner: Blue Point, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 | $350,000 | (D) | 1,600m
Winner: Muntazah, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
6.20pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 | $300,000 | (T) | 2,410m
Winner: Old Persian, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 Group 1 | $600,000 | (D) | 2,000m
Winner: Capezzano, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.30pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 | $400,000 | (T) | 1,800m
Winner: Dream Castle, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Red flags
Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
All matches in Bulawayo Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
In numbers
- Number of children under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401m in 2100
- Over-80s will rise from 141m in 2017 to 866m in 2100
- Nigeria will become the world’s second most populous country with 791m by 2100, behind India
- China will fall dramatically from a peak of 2.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100
- an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to sustain population growth
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
