Bangladesh’s next general election is to be held on January 7. Although a formal victory by the incumbent government is widely regarded as a foregone conclusion, the fact that the integrity of the polls is already being viewed with considerable scepticism at home and abroad reduces the chances they will deliver the legitimacy or economic stability the government seeks.
Instead, both are likely to be degraded by the intensifying, multi-sided struggle to set the rules of how its political system operates going forward. That is bad news for Bangladeshis, but also its neighbours – especially India.
Bangladesh came into existence more than 50 years ago after seceding from Pakistan following a traumatic civil war in which India intervened, cautiously at first, then decisively.
A highly innovative, world-class NGO sector, working with communities, laid the foundation for sustainable growth while overcoming devastation from war and weather-driven natural disasters. More recently, Bangladesh has emerged as one of the world’s leading readymade garment producers, and this supercharged national growth over the past decade or so, at least until the Ukraine war’s economic impact pushed the economy into crisis.
Bangladesh’s recovery from the economic wounds of civil war sadly has not been matched by progress in the political sphere. The deep divisions that emerged during and after the brutal war of liberation have never been addressed through a process of dialogue or reconciliation. As a result, Bangladeshi politics has remained a zero-sum affair, with the threat of chaotic violence lying just below the surface of everyday normality.
The period from 1975 to 1990 was a series of often bloody coups and counter-coups between factions within Bangladesh’s military. Democratisation broke that cycle, and instead produced a regular alternation between the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Unfortunately, the transfers of power were typically followed by legal harassment and suppression of the outgoing party.
Although both parties play up their ideological differences over the place of religion in national identity, they are both heirs to the armed movement to secede from Pakistan. Their bitter differences go beyond ideology, to a highly personal struggle between two political dynasties – and their hangers-on – who have both endured assassinations and imprisonment by their opponents.
The fact the integrity of the polls is already being viewed with scepticism reduces the chances they will deliver stability
The AL gained the upper hand in 2011 when it eliminated the constitutional requirement that elections be overseen by a neutral caretaker government. As a result, it has never lost an election since. The BNP and the combined opposition’s struggle go beyond winning the election in January, and instead are focused on forcing Sheikh Hasina’s government to reverse this change and restore the practice of caretaker-supervised polls.
Much of the BNP’s leadership has been arrested in recent months, but despite this, it appears to be widening and deepening its campaign. The BNP has announced a boycott of the elections and 13 other parties have made a similar pledge. Given the erosion of judicial and media independence over the past decade, and the security forces’ increased willingness to use force, the usual forms of protest simply do not work.
So instead of legal petitions and demonstrations, the opposition has instead organised a series of blockades of transport, especially around its major cities such as Dhaka and Chittagong. They appear to have significantly affected supply chains from the industrial level down to the vegetable markets, creating shortages and driving prices up. This suggests a high level of compliance, which in turn raises a major question mark over the level of public confidence that the government commands. The opposition alliance is now calling for an escalation to a larger programme of civil disobedience, including refusal to pay taxes and utility bills.
The past two elections were judged by international and domestic observers as flawed, and every indication is that January’s vote is likely to suffer from the same defects. As a result, the EU has declined to even deploy election monitors. Given these conditions, it is unlikely that the opposition campaign will end on January 7, regardless of the official election commission results. Instead, the opposition is likely to maintain pressure and bring international attention to the government’s policies.
The UN Human Rights Council, as well as the US and EU (two of Bangladesh’s largest export destinations), have already begun to express their alarm over alleged extrajudicial killings and abductions by shadowy pro-government elements.
Most consequentially of all, Bangladesh is in close consultation with the International Monetary Fund, which agreed to lend $4.7 billion to ease the crisis triggered by the Ukraine war. Any impact from unrest on fundamentals such as inflation, exports and investment would inevitably bring pressure from international lenders for a political settlement to restore international lenders’ confidence in the country’s future stability, which the opposition hopes would mean more space for their demands.
Part of the increased western attention towards Bangladesh stems from the increased engagement with the countries of the Indo-Pacific as relations between the West and China have deteriorated. Although the cornerstone of this effort has been the deepening strategic partnership between the US and India, the question of what to do about the current government has been a place of divergence rather than convergence.
Indian governments going back to Indira Gandhi in 1971 chose to largely invest in ties with the AL, even when it declared Bangladesh a one-party state in 1975. The administration of US President Joe Biden, on the other hand, is committed to encouraging a zone of shared political values in the Indo-Pacific. Regardless of these differences, however, both Washington and New Delhi share a strong mutual interest in stability and growth in the region.
There is a widespread public belief, which the IMF shares, that the inadequate management of state finances and the banking and energy sectors over the past decade was responsible for leaving a booming economy vulnerable to recent global shocks. The apparent lack of transparent and competitive politics appears to have played a part in producing the current level of dysfunction.
Without adequate governance reforms, Bangladesh’s economy could continue to falter, with possible regional spill-over. Large sections of the country’s enormous workforce, comprised of about 74 million people, faces displacement pressures from climate change. A number of them may start looking for alternatives, wherever they can find them, especially next door in India.
The international community, including India, has the leverage to encourage the reforms that will allow peaceful transfers of power in Bangladesh, and set up the country for sustained economic success that will benefit the region and the world.
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
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Fixtures
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States of Passion by Nihad Sirees,
Pushkin Press
Adele: The Stories Behind The Songs
Caroline Sullivan
Carlton Books
The Cairo Statement
1: Commit to countering all types of terrorism and extremism in all their manifestations
2: Denounce violence and the rhetoric of hatred
3: Adhere to the full compliance with the Riyadh accord of 2014 and the subsequent meeting and executive procedures approved in 2014 by the GCC
4: Comply with all recommendations of the Summit between the US and Muslim countries held in May 2017 in Saudi Arabia.
5: Refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries and of supporting rogue entities.
6: Carry out the responsibility of all the countries with the international community to counter all manifestations of extremism and terrorism that threaten international peace and security
Who is Ramon Tribulietx?
Born in Spain, Tribulietx took sole charge of Auckland in 2010 and has gone on to lead the club to 14 trophies, including seven successive Oceania Champions League crowns. Has been tipped for the vacant New Zealand national team job following Anthony Hudson's resignation last month. Had previously been considered for the role.
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Points to remember
- Debate the issue, don't attack the person
- Build the relationship and dialogue by seeking to find common ground
- Express passion for the issue but be aware of when you're losing control or when there's anger. If there is, pause and take some time out.
- Listen actively without interrupting
- Avoid assumptions, seek understanding, ask questions
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
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British Grand Prix free practice times in the third and final session at Silverstone on Saturday (top five):
1. Lewis Hamilton (GBR/Mercedes) 1:28.063 (18 laps)
2. Sebastian Vettel (GER/Ferrari) 1:28.095 (14)
3. Valtteri Bottas (FIN/Mercedes) 1:28.137 (20)
4. Kimi Raikkonen (FIN/Ferrari) 1:28.732 (15)
5. Nico Hulkenberg (GER/Renault) 1:29.480 (14)
Emirates Cricket Board Women’s T10
ECB Hawks v ECB Falcons
Monday, April 6, 7.30pm, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
The match will be broadcast live on the My Sports Eye Facebook page
Hawks
Coach: Chaitrali Kalgutkar
Squad: Chaya Mughal (captain), Archara Supriya, Chamani Senevirathne, Chathurika Anand, Geethika Jyothis, Indhuja Nandakumar, Kashish Loungani, Khushi Sharma, Khushi Tanwar, Rinitha Rajith, Siddhi Pagarani, Siya Gokhale, Subha Srinivasan, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish
Falcons
Coach: Najeeb Amar
Squad: Kavisha Kumari (captain), Almaseera Jahangir, Annika Shivpuri, Archisha Mukherjee, Judit Cleetus, Ishani Senavirathne, Lavanya Keny, Mahika Gaur, Malavika Unnithan, Rishitha Rajith, Rithika Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Shashini Kaluarachchi, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Vaishnave Mahesh
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Indian construction workers stranded in Ajman with unpaid dues
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