The past year was undoubtedly the most challenging of Joe Biden's presidency. Yet despite poor poll numbers in 2023, Mr Biden seems well positioned for re-election. The US has developed a solid tradition of re-electing most first-term presidents. And his likely opponent, former president Donald Trump, will surely be the most obvious flawed candidate ever nominated by a major party.
Mr Biden's strengths and weaknesses became much clearer last year, especially because Mr Trump appears to be running more against the Constitution and democratic political system than the incumbent and his party.
The best news 2023 provided Mr Biden is the strikingly robust state of the US economy. Many voters don't appear to have registered or fully experienced what a remarkable comeback the US has made from the global financial disaster produced by the coronavirus pandemic.
Arguably, no major western economy has staged such a thoroughgoing revival, and while there are limits to how much influence government policies have on the gigantic and overdetermined US economy, Mr Biden deserves more credit than usual because of the dire situation he inherited from Mr Trump and, especially, the pandemic.
Many voters don't appear to have registered what a remarkable comeback the US has made
Polls may well be reflecting a typical 6-8-month lag time in popular perceptions about economic conditions and the high inflation rates during Mr Biden's first two years. The President did himself no favours with terrible public messaging and is responsible for his administration's apparent underestimation of the potential for serious inflation caused by his wisely far-reaching stimulus and public investment spending.
Early in his presidency, he failed to bluntly tell Americans he was intentionally choosing policies geared towards maximising employment but that carried a significant risk of greater inflation. Rather than the typical implausibly rosy promises he relied on, he should have instead frankly told the country that he had to choose between prioritising jobs versus the cost of living, and he preferred to save and create jobs.
When, in his second year, inflation hit rates not seen in a generation but unemployment was virtually eliminated, he could have honestly said: "I told you I was going to save your jobs, and I've done that. Now we must work together to roll back inflation.” But especially because his administration seemed surprised and confused by sustained high inflation rates, his messaging was sorely lacking.
However, in 2023, inflation began to steadily drop. Mr Biden's target is a 2 per cent annual rate which hasn't been achieved yet, but inflation has been steadily falling and is now estimated at a manageable 3.1 per cent, down from a high of 9.1 in June 2022. Assuming the rate continues to dip or even holds steady, Mr Biden is likely to be a significant political beneficiary. Economic concerns are invariably the most important presidential-level political issue for Americans, as long as the country is not engaged in a major war.
But Mr Biden has been bedevilled by two wars in which the US is a major supporting player. His administration's superb performance in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been profoundly damaged by the refusal of Republicans in Congress to continue funding for that country's defence, placing it at extreme risk of being overrun by Moscow. The credibility of the Atlantic alliance, the US, and, of course, the President, are all at stake.
As I noted in these pages recently, Republicans have been holding Ukraine aid hostage to their preferred, and sometimes downright odious, immigration policies. But many of their voters have been convinced by relentless propaganda, especially on Fox News, that their country is being invaded by hordes of hostile, predatory vagabonds. To many right-wing American voters, it actually feels like a war, mainly because that's what they're being relentlessly told.
Official statistics do reflect a serious surge in unauthorised crossings, and there's no doubt that much of the border area is in crisis, with every aspect of the immigration system overstretched. Mr Biden needs to be seen by the public as acting decisively to at least try to do something about what is probably an irresolvable problem.
Mr Trump proved that even silly rhetoric about an impracticable "wall" along the US-Mexico border can be a political bonanza. Serious and effective policies would surely do at least as well, and even many, and probably most, Democrats would welcome them. This is the main issue that 2023 suggests can most leave Mr Biden vulnerable in 2024, even to an opponent as unprincipled, unfit and thoroughly tarnished as Mr Trump.
The second real war in which Mr Biden is implicated is Israel's rampage in Gaza, which has cost him a great deal of support on the "progressive" left. However, his bear hug of Israel remains widely popular among Democrats and provided no room for Republicans to criticise him as insufficiently pro-Israel. Washington has almost certainly injured its global standing by standing virtually alone against calls for a ceasefire, but it's been good politics for the President.
Mr Biden will want the conflict to end before major campaigning begins, but Israel may not oblige. Indeed, there are alarming signs that Israel may be hoping to expand the war, especially against Hezbollah, in hopes of ultimately compelling US attacks against Iranian nuclear targets.
Meanwhile, Republicans have been hoping to use congressional investigations and even a formal, albeit baseless, impeachment inquiry, to dig up dirt against the President and his wayward son, Hunter. But there just doesn't seem to be any. They've been frantically combing through all sorts of evidence and testimony but have found nothing to impugn the president.
Special counsel David Weiss, appointed by Mr Trump but retained and promoted by Mr Biden, recently added nine tax evasion charges to existing gun-related ones, leaving Hunter Biden facing up to 17 years in prison. But that will make it extremely difficult for Republicans to claim he's receiving favourable special treatment from the government. That's all the more important given the 91 felony counts and numerous criminal and civil trials facing Mr Trump.
Mr Trump's increasingly unhinged performance – he ended his 2023 holiday greeting to the nation with "May they rot in hell. Again, Merry Christmas!" – suggests that Mr Biden's greatest re-election strength is his likely opponent. He's already campaigning on representing the continuation of the US constitutional system against a promise of something far more authoritarian.
"I want to be a dictator for one day," Mr Trump recently vowed. If the economy remains robust, such brazen threats to US democracy ought to be enough to secure Mr Biden re-election this year.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: ten-speed
Power: 420bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: Dh325,125
On sale: Now
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Aaron Finch, Matt Renshaw, Brendan Doggett, Michael Neser, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Tim Paine (captain), Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Jon Holland, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Peter Siddle
The bio:
Favourite film:
Declan: It was The Commitments but now it’s Bohemian Rhapsody.
Heidi: The Long Kiss Goodnight.
Favourite holiday destination:
Declan: Las Vegas but I also love getting home to Ireland and seeing everyone back home.
Heidi: Australia but my dream destination would be to go to Cuba.
Favourite pastime:
Declan: I love brunching and socializing. Just basically having the craic.
Heidi: Paddleboarding and swimming.
Personal motto:
Declan: Take chances.
Heidi: Live, love, laugh and have no regrets.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
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From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
The Bio
Amal likes watching Japanese animation movies and Manga - her favourite is The Ancient Magus Bride
She is the eldest of 11 children, and has four brothers and six sisters.
Her dream is to meet with all of her friends online from around the world who supported her work throughout the years
Her favourite meal is pizza and stuffed vine leaves
She ams to improve her English and learn Japanese, which many animated programmes originate in
