Something new and different is happening in Iraq that most international commentators with an interest in the country appear to be missing. Society is now, for the most part, out of the state’s control and is charting its own destiny, in ways that are now unpredictable.
Since 2003, Iraq-watchers and analysts have been consumed with the same concerns, chief among which is Iran’s influence. According to one view that is dominating western commentary on Iraq, the government is now firmly under the control of Iranian-aligned militia that is in the process of dragging the country firmly into Tehran’s orbit. Others still have been arguing that the government is reasserting control and moving the country more towards a neutral position in international affairs.
What is remarkable about both of those narratives is that they are anchored by a western worldview in which countries such as Iraq only feature in so far as western interests are at play. They are both motivated by a desire to either see western power unchallenged in the region, or to see it reduced.
Meanwhile, on the ground, a far more important dynamic has taken hold, one that hardly features in international conversations about Iraq. On the ground, people on the whole are wholly unconcerned by Iranian and American arm-wrestling and are busy building narratives of their own. Because they are unconcerned and unconnected with western interests, these developments are taking place largely unnoticed by western eyes.
The origins of this new chapter can be found in the pre-2003 era.
For decades, the Baathist state prioritised internal security and assumed that the only path to achieving that aim was full control over every aspect of society. This was to the extent that young men had to be careful about how they trimmed their moustaches for fear of appearing subversive.
Young Iraqis are exploring new forms of expression, including alternative approaches to music, art and sport
Just as with everything else, the relationship between state and society that the Baathists had established was ruptured by the 2003 invasion. The state and its primary institutions were dissolved, which had the effect of releasing society from state control.
In its place, a parliamentary and plural constitutional system was adopted, a by-product of which was that a single group or coalition could no longer hope to seize complete control. Political pluralism means that near-consensus must be reached before any decision can be made, and many political groups do not favour moving the country back to a situation of prospective control.
The new constitutional system has also slowed down decision-making considerably in comparison to the now-defunct Baathist presidential system. That carries with it the obvious disadvantage that necessary reforms can, at best, be adopted only very slowly, but it also means that the state’s ability to adopt legislation encroaching on basic liberties is now greatly reduced.
The consequence is that the state and senior political actors remain relevant but are now incapable of leading society in the ways of the past.
From this vacuum, something new has emerged. Society is setting its own path and evolving without the overwhelming influence of a political movement or of state institutions.
In this new context, young Iraqis are exploring new forms of expression, including alternative approaches to music, art and sport. Technology is playing an important role, as people are creating their own networks, and forming their own opinions about the world that they live in.
Through increased interaction, new opportunities are being created, and people have been learning each other’s languages in ways that were considered impossible in 2003.
Today, it is society that casts judgment on the state and not the other way around, and it is society that largely decides what its priorities are. An obvious illustration is how indifferent the large majority of Iraqis are when tensions rise between the US and Iran-aligned militias. In this context, elections are merely a blip in the lives of most Iraqis.
That dynamic is what led to the 2019 uprising, the largest event of its kind in Iraqi history. Such events will be rare, but they will also be a necessary feature of life in the country, as state and society continue to collide.
Iraqis are also interacting with the outside world in unprecedented ways. For the first time in the country’s history, international conferences on democracy are being organised without any intrusion by state institutions on the substance of what is discussed. Iraqi scholars and thinkers can interact and exchange views with each other freely, building their own views about how their future should be formed.
Middle-class Iraqis are travelling around the world in increasing numbers. Because of improved economic conditions, many from the diaspora are returning to the country. More foreigners are living in or visiting Baghdad, including from Arab countries, from Asia and Africa, and are being more warmly welcomed, in customary Iraqi fashion. Everywhere you look, exchanges with members of those countries are happening without fear or any form of control.
None of this is to say that the government, parliament and state institutions have no influence whatsoever over society, or that there are no limitations on expression. But today, the state is only one source of influence among others, and it is not even clear if it is the main source of it.
Iraq’s past has seen the emergence of civilisation upon civilisation, and it has left its mark on the world more than once. Perhaps the past two decades of tragedy and suffering will nurture a new chapter in the country’s rich history, despite – and not because of – foreign powers and ruling political elites.
Abdul Jabar Qahraman was meeting supporters in his campaign office in the southern Afghan province of Helmand when a bomb hidden under a sofa exploded on Wednesday.
The blast in the provincial capital Lashkar Gah killed the Afghan election candidate and at least another three people, Interior Minister Wais Ahmad Barmak told reporters. Another three were wounded, while three suspects were detained, he said.
The Taliban – which controls much of Helmand and has vowed to disrupt the October 20 parliamentary elections – claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mr Qahraman was at least the 10th candidate killed so far during the campaign season, and the second from Lashkar Gah this month. Another candidate, Saleh Mohammad Asikzai, was among eight people killed in a suicide attack last week. Most of the slain candidates were murdered in targeted assassinations, including Avtar Singh Khalsa, the first Afghan Sikh to run for the lower house of the parliament.
The same week the Taliban warned candidates to withdraw from the elections. On Wednesday the group issued fresh warnings, calling on educational workers to stop schools from being used as polling centres.
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
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Transmission: 6-speed automatic
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PSG's line up
GK: Alphonse Areola (youth academy)
Defence - RB: Dani Alves (free transfer); CB: Marquinhos (€31.4 million); CB: Thiago Silva (€42m); LB: Layvin Kurzawa (€23m)
Midfield - Angel di Maria (€47m); Adrien Rabiot (youth academy); Marco Verratti (€12m)
Forwards - Neymar (€222m); Edinson Cavani (€63m); Kylian Mbappe (initial: loan; to buy: €180m)
Total cost: €440.4m (€620.4m if Mbappe makes permanent move)
Usain Bolt's time for the 100m at major championships
2008 Beijing Olympics 9.69 seconds
2009 Berlin World Championships 9.58
2011 Daegu World Championships Disqualified
2012 London Olympics 9.63
2013 Moscow World Championships 9.77
2015 Beijing World Championships 9.79
2016 Rio Olympics 9.81
2017 London World Championships 9.95
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
