Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
July 06, 2024
“I swear, on my honour, not to forsake you in the hard journey we have ahead of us. Do not forsake me,” Iran’s President-elect, Dr Masoud Pezeshkian, wrote in an appeal to the Iranian public on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Saturday morning.
Far from triumphant, Dr Pezeshkian’s message reflects his awareness of the formidable challenges he faces: a political system in which half of the electorate boycotted the election; an economy suffering under the international sanctions regime, mismanagement and corruption; and an international environment characterised by high tensions in relations with Israel and the US.
Throughout the campaign and in the televised presidential debates, Dr Pezeshkian pointed out some of the problems in Iran’s political system and economy, but his solutions were abstract. In the foreign policy debate, however, he was remarkably concrete. By comparing his statements with the policy preferences of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, we can predict Iran’s foreign policy under a new president and assess its implications for regional security over the next four years.
A negotiated solution to the crisis over Iran’s controversial nuclear weapons programme was at the centre of most televised presidential debates in the country. Here, Dr Pezeshkian defended former president Hassan Rouhani’s nuclear diplomacy that, in 2015, culminated in the landmark Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's next president, has a popular mandate to revive the nuclear negotiations with the US. AFP
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, casts his vote on Friday. Masoud Pezeshkian cannot act on foreign policy without Khamenei's final approval. Getty
A negotiated solution to the crisis over Iran’s controversial nuclear weapons programme was at the centre of most televised presidential debates in the country
Dr Pezeshkian also openly accused his rivals, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, of sabotaging Mr Rouhani’s attempts at renegotiating the JCPOA with US President Joe Biden’s administration in 2021. According to Dr Pezeshkian, they did not oppose the JCPOA as a matter of principle but in order to deny Mr Rouhani a diplomatic victory, negotiate the deal themselves and take credit for an agreement with the US.
Dr Pezeshkian has a popular mandate to revive the nuclear negotiations with the US, but strategic decisions in Iran are made by the Supreme National Security Council, where the IRGC exercises significant influence, and whose decisions must be approved by Mr Khamenei.
The supreme leader, in turn, who was angered when former US president Donald Trump withdrew his country from the JCPOA in 2018, is not likely to authorise a new round of negotiations until the outcome of the presidential election in the US is known. A second Trump presidency, however, does not necessarily rule out a nuclear deal. As Dr Pezeshkian consistently said in the televised debates: “Trump is a businessman. We can do business with him.”
Such a potential deal, however, must necessarily also satisfy the economic interests of the IRGC, which will demand a price in return for postponing its nuclear ambitions.
In the course of the televised debates, Dr Pezeshkian also praised the improvement of Iran’s relations with its Arab neighbours, in particular Saudi Arabia and the UAE, under the late president Ebrahim Raisi. More controversially, Dr Pezeshkian consistently raised the issue of the mob attack on the Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran in 2016. As with the JCPOA, he accused opponents of Mr Rouhani of orchestrating the attacks so that the then president would lose face. The result, however, was Iran’s diplomatic isolation in the Arab world, Dr Pezeshkian said repeatedly.
A funeral of two Hezbollah fighters in a southern Lebanese village near the border with northern Israel last month. An all-out Lebanon-Israel war could draw Iran in, which could then spiral into a regional conflict. AFP
The President-elect is clearly committed to continuing the path of detente with Arab neighbours, but as with the JCPOA, he cannot act independently of the IRGC-dominated Supreme National Security Council, and without final approval from Mr Khamenei.
Iran’s policies are also likely to be shaped by the nature of its relations with Israel and the US. Should the terrible war in Gaza spread to Lebanon, and should Iran come to the aid of its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, Washington may be entangled in a direct confrontation with Tehran. In the face of such a formidable adversary, might the IRGC take retaliatory action against the Arab neighbours?
In the past, the Iranian regime and its allies targeted international shipping and oil installations in retaliation against the erstwhile Trump administration’s expressed wish to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Despite Dr Pezeshkian’s positive signals, resuming such a policy is a distinct possibility in the case of an Iran-US military confrontation.
In sum, Dr Pezeshkian appears committed to reaching a negotiated solution to the nuclear crisis and engaging in constructive co-operation with the Arab states. He is also likely to bring capable diplomats back into government to enforce his policies.
However, Iran’s behaviour may change depending on the state of its relations with Israel and the US. Despite the President-elect’s best intentions, he may find himself entangled in the same foreign policy crises as his predecessors.
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Innotech Profile
Date started: 2013
Founder/CEO: Othman Al Mandhari
Based: Muscat, Oman
Sector: Additive manufacturing, 3D printing technologies
Size: 15 full-time employees
Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing
Investors: Oman Technology Fund from 2017 to 2019, exited through an agreement with a new investor to secure new funding that it under negotiation right now.
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Tenants also require a letter of no objection from their landlord before being allowed to list the property.
There is a cost of Dh1,590 before starting the process, with an additional licence fee of Dh300 per bedroom being rented in your home for the duration of the rental, which ranges from three months to a year.
Anyone hoping to list a property for rental must also provide a copy of their title deeds and Ejari, as well as their Emirates ID.
Education: Degree in zoology at The University of Sydney
Favourite book: Lemurs of Madagascar by Russell A Mittermeier
Favourite music: Billy Joel
Weekends and holidays: Talking about animals or visiting his farm in Australia
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood. Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues. Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity. Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
