In the past nine months, there has been considerable debate as to whether Iran knew beforehand of Hamas’s October 7 attack against Israel. The Iranian regime has suggested it didn’t and this may be true, given that the ensuing conflict has, at least in theory, posed an existential threat to Hamas’s presence in Gaza, a key node in Tehran’s alliance network.
However, ultimately, whether Tehran knew may not be relevant. The reason is that the Iranian system set up in the past decade or so, and even longer, has made it highly probable that the outcome of the war in Gaza will not be to Israel’s decisive advantage. As the Israelis have razed the territory and killed tens of thousands of civilians, Iran has consolidated its regional cards, and it will probably emerge from the conflagration strengthened.
The Iranian system holds few secrets. Tehran has built a string of alliances with non-state or para-state actors all around Israel – with Hezbollah operating from Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iraqi militias from Syria, the Houthis from Yemen, and Hamas from Gaza and perhaps the West Bank in the future. Israel has shown an inability to halt the progression of such groups, despite its overwhelming military advantage over them.
A main reason is that the Iranian regime has also focused on politics. In Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Iran and its allies have succeeded in dominating weak or weakened states, creating a political foundation for their endeavours. At best, Israel's weapons can have a delaying effect on its enemies, buying time until future battles, but only a limited real impact on the political contexts in which these non-state or para-state actors are able to act.
There is little Israel and the US can do, in large part because both are so divorced from internal dynamics in Arab societies
On the contrary, taking Gaza as an example, Israeli destructiveness is actually playing in Hamas’s favour. By destroying the territory and its society, Israel has undermined any social structures potentially able to push back against Hamas’s choices, even as Hamas is the actor most able to dominate the vast landscape of devastation Israel has created.
Much the same would happen in Lebanon in case of a war. Lebanese society, in its majority, disagrees with Hezbollah, and this has been shown on countless occasions in recent years. Yet Israel’s usual threat to “take Lebanon back to the Stone Age” would so annihilate the sectarian social order that can impose domestic guardrails on Hezbollah, that the party could conceivably come out of a war better off in the long term.
On the Palestinian scene, in fact, there are few signs that the Gaza war has weakened Hamas. On the contrary, it has only highlighted the marginalisation of the Palestinian Authority, as young men in the West Bank appear to be embracing Hamas’s choice of “armed resistance”, no matter how detrimental it has been for Palestinian lives.
In the coming years, Hamas may push Fatah aside as the dominant Palestinian faction, and even perhaps join and take control of the Palestine Liberation Organisation. Already, Hamas last year began indirectly challenging Fatah in the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, Ain Al Hilweh, suggesting it was preparing the ground for a bigger push once Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas leaves the scene.
All this works to Iran’s advantage. It would be simplistic to dismiss Iranian allies as mere “proxies”, as many observers have a tendency to do. All are active and willing participants in a regional project that regards Iranian interests as running parallel with their own. When they gain, Iran gains; and when Iran gains, they do too.
For Israel and the US, this situation would seem to be untenable. However, there is little they can do, in large part because both are so divorced from internal dynamics in Arab societies. A military attack against Iran to change its regime, which some Israelis and their backers view as a silver bullet to resolve the “Iran problem” in the region, is bound to provoke a wider conflict that leads to stalemate, changing very little.
Lest we forget, it is Israel’s appalling treatment of the Palestinians and its refusal to even consider a political solution for its occupation that has allowed Iran to exploit Palestinian discontent. The Iranian regime has been accused of smuggling weapons into the West Bank, and even if Israel retains control over large swaths of Gaza, Hamas will probably continue to resist, while extending its influence into other areas where Palestinians are present.
Iran has doubtless destroyed several of the Arab countries in which it functions, undermining their sovereignty, state structures and even sectarian social contracts. For the Iranian regime to thrive, these countries have been laid to waste. The so-called Axis of Resistance is, really, only an axis of misery. But for it to be overthrown, any challenge needs to come from within the Arab societies themselves, not through outside military action.
Israel and the US don’t have the bandwidth, patience or interest to affect developments in countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or Yemen. It is unfortunate that Iran has spent more than a decade, and even more in some countries, using all three to advance its agenda. The war in Gaza will not change that, and Israel is already seeing limitations in its resort to extreme violence.
Palestinian suffering may be intolerable, but Israel is not winning in Gaza. For Iran, this creates an ideal situation to continue to exploit in the future.
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
BRAZIL SQUAD
Alisson (Liverpool), Daniel Fuzato (Roma), Ederson (Man City); Alex Sandro (Juventus), Danilo (Juventus), Eder Militao (Real Madrid), Emerson (Real Betis), Felipe (Atletico Madrid), Marquinhos (PSG), Renan Lodi (Atletico Madrid), Thiago Silva (PSG); Arthur (Barcelona), Casemiro (Real Madrid), Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa), Fabinho (Liverpool), Lucas Paqueta (AC Milan), Philippe Coutinho (Bayern Munich); David Neres (Ajax), Gabriel Jesus (Man City), Richarlison (Everton), Roberto Firmino (Liverpool), Rodrygo (Real Madrid), Willian (Chelsea).
RESULTS
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Samau Xmnsor, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Ottoman, Szczepan Mazur, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Sharkh, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 85,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Yaraa, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Maaly Al Reef, Bernardo Pinheiro, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Jinjal, Fabrice Veron, Ahmed Al Shemaili
8pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Al Sail, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
At Everton Appearances: 77; Goals: 17
At Manchester United Appearances: 559; Goals: 253
'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
Dubai Women's Tour teams
Agolico BMC
Andy Schleck Cycles-Immo Losch
Aromitalia Basso Bikes Vaiano
Cogeas Mettler Look
Doltcini-Van Eyck Sport
Hitec Products – Birk Sport
Kazakhstan National Team
Kuwait Cycling Team
Macogep Tornatech Girondins de Bordeaux
Minsk Cycling Club
Pannonia Regional Team (Fehérvár)
Team Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Team Ciclotel
UAE Women’s Team
Under 23 Kazakhstan Team
Wheel Divas Cycling Team
Company%20profile
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MATCH INFO
Qalandars 109-3 (10ovs)
Salt 30, Malan 24, Trego 23, Jayasuriya 2-14
Bangla Tigers (9.4ovs)
Fletcher 52, Rossouw 31
Bangla Tigers win by six wickets
More from Aya Iskandarani
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The drill
Recharge as needed, says Mat Dryden: “We try to make it a rule that every two to three months, even if it’s for four days, we get away, get some time together, recharge, refresh.” The couple take an hour a day to check into their businesses and that’s it.
Stick to the schedule, says Mike Addo: “We have an entire wall known as ‘The Lab,’ covered with colour-coded Post-it notes dedicated to our joint weekly planner, content board, marketing strategy, trends, ideas and upcoming meetings.”
Be a team, suggests Addo: “When training together, you have to trust in each other’s abilities. Otherwise working out together very quickly becomes one person training the other.”
Pull your weight, says Thuymi Do: “To do what we do, there definitely can be no lazy member of the team.”
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Funchal via Lisbon, with a connecting flight with Air Portugal. Economy class returns cost from Dh3,845 return including taxes.
The trip
The WalkMe app can be downloaded from the usual sources. If you don’t fancy doing the trip yourself, then Explore offers an eight-day levada trails tour from Dh3,050, not including flights.
The hotel
There isn’t another hotel anywhere in Madeira that matches the history and luxury of the Belmond Reid's Palace in Funchal. Doubles from Dh1,400 per night including taxes.
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Asian Cup 2019
Quarter-final
UAE v Australia, Friday, 8pm, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
The Bio
Ram Buxani earned a salary of 125 rupees per month in 1959
Indian currency was then legal tender in the Trucial States.
He received the wages plus food, accommodation, a haircut and cinema ticket twice a month and actuals for shaving and laundry expenses
Buxani followed in his father’s footsteps when he applied for a job overseas
His father Jivat Ram worked in general merchandize store in Gibraltar and the Canary Islands in the early 1930s
Buxani grew the UAE business over several sectors from retail to financial services but is attached to the original textile business
He talks in detail about natural fibres, the texture of cloth, mirrorwork and embroidery
Buxani lives by a simple philosophy – do good to all
The Byblos iftar in numbers
29 or 30 days – the number of iftar services held during the holy month
50 staff members required to prepare an iftar
200 to 350 the number of people served iftar nightly
160 litres of the traditional Ramadan drink, jalab, is served in total
500 litres of soup is served during the holy month
200 kilograms of meat is used for various dishes
350 kilograms of onion is used in dishes
5 minutes – the average time that staff have to eat
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
