Within the space of a month, confusion, disarray and a loss of confidence seem to have spread from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party.
What was meant to be a celebratory period for Republicans – as former US president Donald Trump’s approval ratings rose following a failed attempt on his life and the announcement of JD Vance as his running mate – appears to have flipped on its head.
Ever since President Joe Biden’s poor showing in the first televised debate against Mr Trump last month, Republicans should have been prepared for his possible withdrawal from the race. They should have anticipated the likelihood of Vice President Kamala Harris replacing him at the top of the Democratic ticket.
Instead, the GOP trapped itself in a web of overconfidence, prematurely crowning Mr Trump as president.
Today, strategists in both campaigns are scrambling to reprioritise, reassess challenges and prepare their candidates for the upcoming debates. Welcome, then, to a long and possibly entertaining, yet altogether terrifying, American political drama, as the atmosphere of division and vengeance is not to be underestimated in an ideologically and emotionally charged country.
So, with only a little more than three months left before election day, where do things stand in this uncertain electoral landscape?
For starters, Ms Harris has swiftly moved herself out of the shadows and into the electoral spotlight. Republicans have been surprised by how quickly Democrats have closed ranks around the Vice President, as well as the dramatic increase in financial support for her campaign.
Efforts to rebrand Ms Harris and give her campaign a theme are already under way. Her team has also gone into overdrive to find a vice-presidential candidate who could further invigorate the party’s chances.
There are several candidates in the fray, including Senator Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and naval aviator who served in the 1991 Gulf War to liberate Kuwait. Mr Kelly’s personal story could resonate with many voters: he retired from active duty to care for his wife, Gabby Giffords, who was an active politician before she was shot at a supermarket.
Other candidates include Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttiegeg, as well as the governors of at least five electorally crucial states.
But the vice-presidential role is crucial not only for gaining votes but also for reassuring voters that Ms Harris – who remains inexperienced in national politics – will have a working partner who is experienced in policymaking and who can help turn the spotlight in favour of the Democratic Party’s main mission: retaining the White House.
The Trump campaign is now devising a new strategy. The next televised debate would be of great importance, as Mr Trump’s composure is likely to be severely tested by a female opponent of African-American and South Asian descent, who is reputed to have been a tough prosecutor.
The concern for Mr Trump is that he may become a victim of his own impulsiveness. He himself asserted that he won’t change, despite the widespread assumption that he had become gentler after surviving an assassination attempt, saying: “I am not going to be nice.”
Mr Trump has already referred to Ms Harris as “crazy”, “a liar” and “a baby killer”, alluding to her support for abortion rights. His campaign plans to pin the blame for the country’s illegal immigration problem on the Vice President for her allegedly failed attempts to resolve the problem.
However, the Trump campaign will want him to avoid personal attacks or slurs on the basis of gender and race, which could cost him votes.
For her part, Ms Harris plans to depict Mr Trump as a “criminal” and “a convict”, crafting an image of a man who is unfit for the US presidency. She will also seek to highlight her own acquired skills while building on what many Americans now view to be a likeable, relatable character capable of adapting and making remarkable changes once a clear identity and goal are established.
Domestic issues will take centre stage, as these are what concern the American voters the most, although some international issues will inevitably receive widespread attention.
Major donors will attempt to outdo each other in funding each camp. Some figures on Wall Street are said to be worried about the instability that a second Trump presidency could bring, as the former president looks to upend the US’s domestic and foreign policy priorities.
Meanwhile, Mr Biden will continue to play an important role in the election.
The Trump campaign is already calling for him to step down from the presidency right away, and not when his term ends in January. Such a development, in the Trump team’s view, would burden Ms Harris with the task of stepping in as interim president while running in the election.
Ms Harris’s campaign, on the other hand, will bank on breakthroughs for the Biden administration that the Vice President can then point to as her own achievements as well. The campaign also aims to capitalise on large sections of American society ready to embrace Ms Harris simply because of their dislike for Mr Trump.
Much has happened in US politics over the past month, but don’t be surprised if there are more twists and turns over the next 100 or so days before election day.
