Lebanon’s best hope is its Armed Forces

Lebanon is teetering on the edge, struggling with a devastating war between Hezbollah and Israel, political paralysis and economic freefall. The US is reportedly seeking to use Israel's offensive as an opportunity to weaken the militant group's longstanding influence, break the two-year political deadlock caused by Hezbollah’s influence and push the Lebanese political elite to elect a president.

But Lebanon doesn’t just need a new face at the helm, it needs a strong backbone. And that backbone can be provided by the Lebanese Armed Forces. By shifting the focus from political optics to empowering the army, Lebanon’s friends can pave the way for real security, sovereignty and lasting recovery.

To halt the ongoing Israeli offensive against Hezbollah, Lebanon needs a multi-faceted diplomatic and security package. Immediate efforts should focus on brokering a ceasefire that allows for the army to take control of the country’s border areas with Israel.

Accelerating the posting of the army in southern Lebanon with an enhanced Unifil mandate can serve as a visible commitment to border security, reducing the pretext for Israeli military actions. Unifil, or the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, is a peacekeeping mission established in 1978 to monitor the cessation of hostilities, support the Lebanese government in extending its authority in the south and ensure security along the border with Israel. As the Hezbollah threat to Israel in southern Lebanon diminishes, and the army asserts control, guarantees should be put in place to avoid escalation in the future.

Meanwhile, the political stalemate in Beirut is not just a reflection of internal divisions but is compounded by the shifting dynamics of regional power. External players view Lebanon through the lens of their respective strategic interests. In this environment, the army stands out as a rare pillar of stability in Lebanon’s fragmented landscape. It commands respect across the political spectrum and remains one of the few institutions capable of bridging the country’s deep divides.

Yet, the push to install a new president under pressure and as the country is reeling from Israeli attacks on Hezbollah could inflame tensions and deepen divisions. As a first step, the army must be front and centre of international efforts to support Lebanon, empowering the armed forces to take on the urgent task of securing the borders and creating a safe space for political and economic revival.

Recent history has shown that leadership changes alone have been insufficient to stabilise the country. The 2016 election of Michel Aoun as president did little to curb the economic collapse or reduce Hezbollah’s influence. Strengthening the army, however, should not be just a military priority – it is a national necessity. A comprehensive support package, including financial aid, modern equipment and strategic backing from regional and international allies, can transform the army into a force capable of leading Lebanon’s recovery.

Since 2019, the country's economic collapse has led to severe pay cuts for soldiers, reducing their salaries from an average of around $800 a month to less than $100 a month. But money isn’t the only factor. The army also needs ammunition, fuel, uniforms and advanced training to operate as a modern, disciplined force. With such support in place, it can turn its attention to securing the borders, starting with the south. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 remains the basis for a ceasefire with Israel and its full implementation both by Lebanon and Israel is critical.

Moreover, Lebanon's stability is intertwined with the situation in Syria. The influx of Syrian refugees has placed additional strain on Lebanon’s fragile economy and social fabric. The government estimates that the country hosts 1.5 million refugees since the beginning of the Syrian refugee crisis. Meanwhile, the UN reports that in the past two weeks, about 250,000 Syrians have returned home fleeing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. The eastern frontier with Syria is a key battleground in the fight to control the flow of weapons, militants and illegal drugs such as Captagon.

The army should be supported to shut down illegal crossings and secure official entry points. This requires a co-ordinated effort with Syria and the backing of international partners to provide the technology and training needed to do the job right. Strong borders mean less room for outside actors to manipulate Lebanon’s security situation by supporting non-state militias, allowing the country to reclaim its sovereignty.

No one is suggesting that Lebanon can ignore its political stalemate. Electing a president remains a vital step, but it is critical to avoid the pitfalls of solutions imposed by outsiders. External actors, while influential, must recognise the country’s political complexities, which may not be addressed by a single election. The international community must resist the temptation to pick winners and losers in the process. The army’s role in providing stability buys time and space for the political process to unfold naturally, rather than being rushed into decisions that could backfire.

Economic recovery must go together with security reforms. International aid should prioritise rebuilding Lebanon’s shattered infrastructure, helping displaced communities, and restoring vital services such as electricity, water and health care. The economic collapse has drained public trust in state institutions, making it even more crucial for aid to be delivered transparently and equitably. But even this must be done with care: if the army succeeds in providing security, it must extend that protection to the most marginalised communities, including the Shiite population.

Lebanon’s future won’t be decided by a single election, nor will it come from the outside. It rests in the hands of its people and the institutions that serve them. And right now, the army is the country’s best hope. By focusing on a strong, independent military, it can reclaim its sovereignty and set the stage for political renewal.