The Middle East conflict and this year’s US presidential election are affecting one another in important ways.
We are seeing an internal debate unfolding within the Democratic Party, coupled with a hardening of views on the Republican side. As a result, there is little hope that, whoever wins, there will be any significant change in US policy towards the Middle East.
Israel’s war in Gaza has caused a rift within the Democratic coalition. During the past decade, several mass movements have arisen in the US in response to women’s rights, race, immigration and gun control. All of these have erupted as partisan issues pitting Democrats against Republicans. The mass movement in support of Palestinian rights and a ceasefire in Gaza is the latest of these mobilisations and is made up of the same progressive constituent groups.
But the key difference between the pro-Palestinian movement and the others is that instead of being a strictly partisan effort, it has been an intra-party affair pitting key elements of the Democratic coalition against the party’s leadership.
Recent polling shows that for the first time, more Democrats sympathise with Palestinians over Israelis, want an immediate ceasefire, and support suspension of military aid to Israel. They are also disinclined to see the US militarily involved in conflicts in the Middle East and the rest of the world. These attitudes are especially pronounced among young voters and non-white voters – key components of the Democratic coalition.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the rift will continue to grow – both within the Democratic Party and between the two parties
This tension within the Democratic Party is real and may cost the party votes in some states.
While changing attitudes within the Democratic Party resulting from the war have caused some to become alienated from the party’s historic ties with Israel, this shift is also beginning to have an impact on policy. Record numbers of Democratic members of Congress have signed on to bills and letters urging a ceasefire or calling for limits on US arms shipments to Israel.
Republicans, on the other hand, remain dominated by the Christian right and remnants of the neoconservative movement. Both share a Manichaeistic world view – that there is a fundamental conflict between good and evil – which is uncritically supportive of Israel’s role in the region and the world. Despite the costs in US lives, treasure and prestige resulting from the disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, both of these ideological currents continue to see the US as the driving force for good in the world.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the rift will continue to grow – both within the Democratic Party and between the two parties.
I don’t expect that a Kamala Harris-led administration would make any immediate or dramatic shift in its approach. The still-dominant Democratic foreign policy and political consultancy establishments are cautious and out of touch with the changing dynamics within the electorate and the diminished capacity of the US in the world.
But I do expect that eventually, they will be forced to recognise and make some accommodation to the political pressures building from below.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, is Donald Trump. I expect an administration led by him would be as unconventional and as unpredictable as it was the last time around.
That said, despite his desire to avoid entanglement in foreign wars, he would not deviate from, nor would he challenge, his supporters’ beliefs in US primacy and the righteousness of Israel’s behaviours. But the extent of the complex tensions roiling the Middle East would require him to make some accommodation.
I am not sure that either the Republican or, for that matter, the Democratic foreign policy establishment, are up to the task. They will need to think bigger than playing “whack-a-mole” with Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Libya and Yemen. They will need to recognise that the US can’t make change without addressing historic grievances. And they will need to address new realities that are transforming the region.
It’s clear that while there is change afoot in both American politics and in the dynamics unfolding across the Middle East, new thinking and creative leadership are needed. This new thinking appears to be developing more in the Middle East than in the US, which is still stuck in the old post-Cold War mindset that sees the US as the “indispensable nation”, the “shining city on the hill”, or the “beacon of freedom”.
While there will continue to be a heated debate on the Democratic side over the US’s role in the region and the world, I’m not confident that the GOP, such as it is, will be capable of engaging in the kind of self-criticism needed to make change possible.
A consequence of this will be partisan tension and gridlock making the US, in the near term, unable to play a meaningful role in contributing to peace and stability in the Middle East. This has resulted in many key US allies moving independently to both secure themselves and ease regional tensions.
Webinar replay: How the war in the Middle East will shape the 2024 US presidential election
England v South Africa schedule:
- First Test: At Lord's, England won by 219 runs
- Second Test: July 14-18, Trent Bridge, Nottingham, 2pm
- Third Test: The Oval, London, July 27-31, 2pm
- Fourth Test: Old Trafford, Manchester, August 4-8
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (All UAE kick-off times)
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (11.30pm)
Saturday
Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)
FA Augsburg v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Werder Bremen (6.30pm)
SC Paderborn v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Monchengladbach (9.30pm)
Sunday
Cologne v Bayern Munich (6.30pm)
Mainz v FC Schalke (9pm)
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
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Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
The specs
Engine: 1.4-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 180hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm at 3,00rpm
Transmission: 5-speed sequential auto
Price: From Dh139,995
On sale: now
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Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Brief scores:
Day 1
Toss: South Africa, field first
Pakistan (1st innings) 177: Sarfraz 56, Masood 44; Olivier 4-48
South Africa (1st innings) 123-2: Markram 78; Masood 1-4
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
