The seismic events in Syria over the past few days can be described as a black swan event, a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to denote an occurrence that is highly improbable yet has a huge impact.
The overthrow of the Baathist government is poised to have significant repercussions, not only within the country but also across the broader region. Whether these consequences will be positive or negative will depend on the choices made by Syria’s interim and long-term leadership.
More than a decade ago, I wrote an article highlighting a significant shift in the Arab world’s centres of gravity in culture, economy and diplomacy. This shift saw the traditional capitals of Cairo, Baghdad, Beirut and Damascus ceding prominence to emerging hubs such as Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Dubai, Doha and Sharjah. The triumph of the Syrian uprising holds the potential to rebalance the haemorrhaging of influence from these once-great cities. It could finally provide an opportunity for one of the Arab world’s traditional leading capitals, battered by decades of corruption, mismanagement and brain drain, to begin reclaiming the mantle it once proudly held.
However, for that to occur, Syria will need a confluence of critical factors to align.
The first and most essential is the establishment of a competent, just, secular and progressive government, consisting of technocrats – one that prioritises the rule of law, inclusivity and equitable governance. Such a government must work to rebuild trust among its citizens, address the deep scars left by years of conflict, and foster a sense of unity and shared purpose. This new government should also engage with friendly states in the Arab world, as well as Turkey, to draw upon their expertise in economic and tourism development. Collaborative partnerships in these fields could provide valuable insights and support, enabling Syria to rebuild its infrastructure, attract investment and create sustainable growth opportunities.
It is essential that the Syrian authorities learn from the best practices implemented across the region including in the Gulf countries. The successes achieved in the UAE demonstrate that similar progress is entirely possible in Syria. The country possesses all the necessary components for stellar success: a strategic geographic location, abundant natural resources, a youthful and ambitious population, a globally spread and successful diaspora, and a wealth of archaeological and historical sites. By using these assets and adopting proven strategies, Syria has the potential to rebuild and thrive, positioning itself as a significant player in the region once again.
Syria must avoid a destructive purge akin to the de-Baathification process led by Paul Bremer during the US-led occupation of Iraq, which effectively hollowed out the Iraqi administration by removing experienced bureaucrats and technocrats. Such actions left Iraq’s institutions weakened and ill-equipped to function, contributing to prolonged instability.
Instead, Syria should prioritise reconciliation and the preservation of institutional knowledge while carefully balancing accountability with the need for administrative continuity and expertise. In attempting to heal some of its scars, Syria could also learn from the experience of Morocco’s Equity and Reconciliation Commission.
Syria has long held a prominent cultural role in the Arab world and its impact on the region can hardly be exaggerated and perhaps is second only to Egypt. It is, after all, where in 1919 the Arabic Language Academy was founded and where significant figures of the Arab Renaissance originated from. It is home to some of the most prominent Arab artists, poets, novelists and cultural leaders who affected not only our language but also our identities as Arabs from North Africa to the Gulf.
However, decades of conflict, underinvestment and governmental overreach have led to a decline in the quality of Syria’s artistic output, including fine art, film, television and theatre. This deterioration mirrors challenges faced across the Arab world due to excessive state interference in cultural production.
As the Egyptian author Ahmed Naji suggests: “Just imagine the cultural and artistic impact that Syria could have if it started producing free drama and cinema.” The current moment offers a critical opportunity for Syrians to relaunch the cultural sector in the country and affirm its position as a trailblazer in the region for free and effective cultural production.
Finally, Syria must harness the skills and resources of all its sons and daughters in the diaspora. This includes not only the refugees and exiles who fled during the past decade and a half of conflict but also those who left decades earlier due to the rise of authoritarian rule. Among them are Syrians who have built successful lives in the West, including the Syrian Jewish community in New York, renowned for their expertise in real estate development and investment. Their contributions could play a vital role in rebuilding the country, provided they are granted equal rights and opportunities to participate in Syria’s future.
The reality is that while it is highly improbable for all these elements to align perfectly, it is not impossible. A crucial factor will be the presence of an often-elusive final ingredient: luck. Will Syria take advantage of this black swan moment, rise to the occasion and soar, or will it falter under the weight of its challenges?
