Arash Azizi is an author and historian, and an Iranian affairs columnist for The National
December 13, 2024
Iran has not been able to catch a break in recent months, facing crisis after crisis, blow after blow. But even by such standards, the stunning collapse of Bashar Al Assad’s government in Syria has been a massive shock to Tehran’s system.
Iran spent tens of billions of dollars and lost more than 2,300 military personnel to keep the former Syrian president in power. Mr Al Assad’s administration represented not just Iran’s most sturdy Arab ally but a geographical lynchpin that made Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” possible. It was through Syria’s territory that Iran supplied the jewel in the crown of the Axis: Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was Mr Al Assad’s last major diplomatic guest. Visiting Damascus just a few days before the Syrian government collapsed, Mr Araghchi even had dinner at a shawarma joint in the capital to show that everything was alright. The meal has now gone down in history as “the Last Supper” rather than a triumphant show of confidence.
Supporters of the Iranian government’s regional policy are in shock. Meanwhile, Iran has tried to limit the fallout by pushing the narrative that Mr Al Assad’s downfall won’t hurt Tehran much. Some are even whispering that the Syrian president lost the country because he had toyed with distancing himself from Iran. Mr Al Assad had fallen “due to many promises and pressures from the US and some Arab countries; he had cut his ties with Iran,” claimed Hamidreza Taraghi, a conservative politician.
Appearing in a closed session of parliament on Tuesday, Hossein Salami, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, claimed that Iran remained regionally powerful and “maintained its focus on destroying the Zionists”. Mr Salami also said that Iran had withdrawn all of its forces from Syria.
Mr Araghchi himself claimed that the Axis would continue because it was primarily based on ideas that won’t die with a change of government in Damascus. Iran has also tried to maintain contact with the new administration taking shape and Mr Araghchi did not even rule out Syria remaining in the Axis. This sounds implausible given that Damascus’s new rulers seem eager to move away from Tehran. Despite significant Israeli attacks on Syrian military infrastructure, the Islamist rebel leader Ahmad Al Shara, formerly known as Abu Mohammed Al Jawlani, has not attacked Israel verbally and is adamant that, exhausted by years of war, Syrians do not want more fighting.
But beyond these attempts at damage control, what will be the lasting effect of the fall of Mr Al Assad on the Iranian government?
It is well known that many in the Iranian establishment are wary of the focus on regional militias and sabre rattling with Israel that has been central to the career of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. These dissenters include President Masoud Pezeshkian who has tried to focus on economic development. According to well-sourced Iranian journalist Fereshteh Sadeghi, Mr Pezeshkian was opposed to Tehran aiding Mr Al Assad. Iran’s President might even be secretly relieved that Iran’s Axis policy has received a blow serious enough to strengthen his camp’s arguments: that Iran needs a diplomatic deal with the US and the West to take care of its economic problems. This means de-escalation, not entering new conflicts.
But Mr Pezeshkian and Iranian reformists are also using the fall of Mr Al Assad in a more novel way. They are suggesting that Iran must learn a cautionary lesson: reform or perish.
Mr Araghchi’s own post-Damascus interview implicitly pointed to Mr Al Assad’s lack of popular support as a reason for his political demise. “We suggested that Assad should interact more with the Syrian people since what keeps the government in power is the people,” Mr Araghchi said on Sunday. Critiquing Mr Al Assad, Mr Araghchi said his government “hadn’t showed enough flexibility and speed” in reforming itself.
Iran’s President might even be secretly relieved that Iran’s Axis policy has received a blow
Although Mr Araghchi was talking about Syria’s domestic affairs, it was not difficult for Iranians to draw inferences about their own conditions. Only a few months in office, the Pezeshkian government is fighting against a draconian hijab bill passed by Iran’s hardliner-dominated parliament. It is also trying to ease Iran’s restrictions on the internet while facing opposition from conservatives. The President’s supporters point out that if Iran does not reform fast enough, it will go the way of Syria’s fallen government.
Fatemeh Mohajerani, Mr Pezeshkian’s spokeswoman, made the point explicitly. Speaking on Sunday, Ms Mohajerani referred to Mr Pezeshkian’s slogan of forming “a government of consensus”, which is usually taken to mean a conciliatory approach toward the conservatives.
“The real consensus must be with the people,” she added. “You heard Dr Araghchi … We must talk to the people. No government can be successful without the people. We badly need support from people.”
Many other reformists are making the same point. “If Bashar Al Assad had accepted free elections,” a pro-reform Iranian doctors’ association asked on X, formerly known as Twitter, “and listened to critics instead of repressing them, what would have been the fate of himself and Syria?”
Mohammad Tavassoli, a leading figure of the Freedom Movement of Iran, called on “all the tyrannical governments” to learn from the fall of Mr Al Assad and “prevent such a costly process by a timely return to the people and building room for freedom and sovereignty of the nation”.
But the first reaction from Iran’s security authorities does not suggest that they have learned this lesson. The Ministry of Intelligence has reportedly contacted several activists, warning them against making any comparisons between Iran and Syria. Mahmoud Sadeghi, an outspoken former reformist MP, was one of those the ministry called. He disregarded the threat and wrote an article, making precisely such a comparison.
Addressing the authorities, Mr Sadeghi wrote: “We should allow political analysts to make their point if they see similarities between our approaches and behaviour and that of Assad. Instead of escaping the truth, the authorities can fix their errors.”
Even more brazenly, Mr Sadeghi took to directly addressing Mr Khamenei. Since the leader is 85 years old, the battle over his succession is already taking place. Mr Sadeghi wished him a long life but added: “If you don’t fix the problems while you are alive, I am afraid that our regime will go the path of Syria’s.”
If enough Iranian statesmen heed Mr Sadeghi’s warning, then the fall of Mr Al Assad might end up being an unlikely catalyst for reform in Iran.
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
The specs: Macan Turbo
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TOUCH RULES
Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.
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Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.
A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.
After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.
At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.
A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.
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Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book:I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. England
4. Fiji
5. Australia
6. Samoa
7. Kenya
8. Scotland
9. France
10. Spain
11. Argentina
12. Canada
13. Wales
14. Uganda
15. United States
16. Russia
Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”
Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.
This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.
500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
