When the Arab uprisings began more than 13 years ago, I wrote an essay asking if South-East and East Asia could offer any lessons about how countries there had managed their own political transitions, pathways to reform, and efforts to promote reconciliation after often violent pasts.
In most cases, the Arab uprisings failed. But today, as we may be witnessing the birth of a new Syria, while other conflicts still rage in the Levant and Horn of Africa, I believe East Asia again provides useful examples about how to manage differences, so that former foes can not just co-exist but even possibly end up as partners in government.
Two quotes sum them up. The first comes from Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, the once-exiled second son of Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who some believe is being “road-tested” to see if he might be a suitable heir apparent. Mr Vacharaesorn has no formal role, but he has said: “I’m keenly aware that His Majesty allows me to be in the country and to perform all the things I’ve been doing.”
One of those is declaring that he is open to discussions about reform, including to the country’s strict lese-majeste laws, which are supposed to protect the monarchy, but which critics say have frequently been misused for political purposes.
In the Thai context, for the King’s son to state this is astounding. But it’s what he has to say about how you manage change that I think is important. "You don't smash something with a hammer and expect everybody to be happy about it. You do things in a soft manner. You do things in a respectful manner. And then let history – and the tides of where the world is going – take you."
This appears to be advice already taken to heart in Syria, with the emphasis on keeping institutions intact. The disaster of de-Baathification in Iraq is not an example any country should want to follow. “Revolution” may be a powerful word, but reform – that is, not “smashing something with a hammer” – was the key to many successful transitions in South-East Asia. Institutions were gradually changed, rather than swept away, and historical continuity was emphasised when elements of previous constitutions were revived.
The second quote is from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. His Vice President, Sara Duterte, had said that if she was killed, she had instructed an assassin to murder not only Mr Marcos Jr, but also his wife and his cousin, who is the Speaker of the House of Representatives. This didn’t go down well with the general population – Ms Duterte’s approval ratings have fallen 10 percentage points since she made the threat. Mr Marcos, however, has been rather conciliatory about it. Asked to comment on Ms Duterte’s assessment that her relations with her boss had reached “the point of no return” and were now beyond repair, Mr Marcos Jr said: “Never say never.”
That may sound startlingly magnanimous in the circumstances, but it’s an expression that rings true through much of the region. In Malaysia, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's coalition is in power with the former governing coalition, Barisan Nasional, after decades of publicly vilifying each other. In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto was a bitter rival to his predecessor Joko Widodo, losing to him twice in presidential elections. But then Mr Prabowo became part of his administration, and Mr Jokowi's son is now Mr Prabowo’s Vice President.
'Never say never' isn’t borne out everywhere, but this attitude has been apparent in the South-East Asian democracies
In Thailand, after the 2023 election, Pheu Thai – the party associated with the Thaksin family – ended up in power with the royalist-conservative establishment parties aligned to the same military that had twice forced the Thaksins from power by taking over in coups.
In Myanmar, it also ended in a coup, in 2021; but from 2012 onwards the country’s former de facto head of government, Aung San Suu Kyi, spent nearly a decade working with military that had kept her under house arrest for 15 years, as well as attempting to assassinate her once. Even in Singapore, there are instances of children of opposition figures bankrupted by defamation suits who nevertheless went on to have leading positions in governmental organisations.
“Never say never” isn’t borne out everywhere, but this attitude has been apparent in the South-East Asian countries. In some cases, only relatively recently: it would have been far less likely to have been manifested under the "big" leaders of the past – Suharto in Indonesia, Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad (during the first time he was prime minister, from 1981-2003), Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore, Ferdinand Marcos Sr in the Philippines, or Gen Ne Win in Myanmar.
But that’s part of the point: this spirit of compromise, and of working with former opponents, has been a feature of reform and democratisation processes in the countries above. It may sometimes happen out of political necessity, but in a region where consensus-seeking is part of traditional modes of governance, it’s also a virtue that can contribute to stability, harmony and reconciliation.
So: “don’t smash things with a hammer” and “never say never”. These are two simple, but important, points from South-East Asia that could prove useful in the Middle East and Horn of Africa, as they face a new year in which it must be hoped that conflict resolution and state building replace the war and repression that have marred too many states for too long. Their peoples deserve better.
Iftar programme at the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding
Established in 1998, the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding was created with a vision to teach residents about the traditions and customs of the UAE. Its motto is ‘open doors, open minds’. All year-round, visitors can sign up for a traditional Emirati breakfast, lunch or dinner meal, as well as a range of walking tours, including ones to sites such as the Jumeirah Mosque or Al Fahidi Historical Neighbourhood.
Every year during Ramadan, an iftar programme is rolled out. This allows guests to break their fast with the centre’s presenters, visit a nearby mosque and observe their guides while they pray. These events last for about two hours and are open to the public, or can be booked for a private event.
Until the end of Ramadan, the iftar events take place from 7pm until 9pm, from Saturday to Thursday. Advanced booking is required.
For more details, email openminds@cultures.ae or visit www.cultures.ae
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Top%2010%20most%20competitive%20economies
%3Cp%3E1.%20Singapore%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Switzerland%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Denmark%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Ireland%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Hong%20Kong%0D%3Cbr%3E6.%20Sweden%0D%3Cbr%3E7.%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E8.%20Taiwan%0D%3Cbr%3E9.%20Netherlands%0D%3Cbr%3E10.%20Norway%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Monster
Directed by: Anthony Mandler
Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington
3/5
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group C
Liverpool v Napoli, midnight
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
MATCH INFO
Europa League semi-final, second leg
Atletico Madrid (1) v Arsenal (1)
Where: Wanda Metropolitano
When: Thursday, May 3
Live: On BeIN Sports HD
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ovasave%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Majd%20Abu%20Zant%20and%20Torkia%20Mahloul%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Healthtech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Three%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24400%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
The specs: 2018 Range Rover Velar R-Dynamic HSE
Price, base / as tested: Dh263,235 / Dh420,000
Engine: 3.0-litre supercharged V6
Power 375hp @ 6,500rpm
Torque: 450Nm @ 3,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.4L / 100kms
Astroworld
Travis Scott
Grand Hustle/Epic/Cactus Jack
TV: World Cup Qualifier 2018 matches will be aired on on OSN Sports HD Cricket channel
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
RESULTS
Dubai Kahayla Classic – Group 1 (PA) $750,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
Winner: Deryan, Ioritz Mendizabal (jockey), Didier Guillemin (trainer).
Godolphin Mile – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
Dubai Gold Cup – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (Turf) 3,200m
Winner: Subjectivist, Joe Fanning, Mark Johnston
Al Quoz Sprint – Group 1 (TB) $1million (T) 1,200m
Winner: Extravagant Kid, Ryan Moore, Brendan Walsh
UAE Derby – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner: Rebel’s Romance, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
Dubai Golden Shaheen – Group 1 (TB) $1.5million (D) 1,200m
Winner: Zenden, Antonio Fresu, Carlos David
Dubai Turf – Group 1 (TB) $4million (T) 1,800m
Winner: Lord North, Frankie Dettori, John Gosden
Dubai Sheema Classic – Group 1 (TB) $5million (T) 2,410m
Winner: Mishriff, John Egan, John Gosden
VERSTAPPEN'S FIRSTS
Youngest F1 driver (17 years 3 days Japan 2014)
Youngest driver to start an F1 race (17 years 166 days – Australia 2015)
Youngest F1 driver to score points (17 years 180 days - Malaysia 2015)
Youngest driver to lead an F1 race (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest driver to set an F1 fastest lap (19 years 44 days – Brazil 2016)
Youngest on F1 podium finish (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest F1 winner (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest multiple F1 race winner (Mexico 2017/18)
Youngest F1 driver to win the same race (Mexico 2017/18)
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
THE LOWDOWN
Romeo Akbar Walter
Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Brief scores
Toss India, chose to bat
India 281-7 in 50 ov (Pandya 83, Dhoni 79; Coulter-Nile 3-44)
Australia 137-9 in 21 ov (Maxwell 39, Warner 25; Chahal 3-30)
India won by 26 runs on Duckworth-Lewis Method
England v South Africa schedule:
- First Test: At Lord's, England won by 219 runs
- Second Test: July 14-18, Trent Bridge, Nottingham, 2pm
- Third Test: The Oval, London, July 27-31, 2pm
- Fourth Test: Old Trafford, Manchester, August 4-8
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
Ammar 808:
Maghreb United
Sofyann Ben Youssef
Glitterbeat
Fifa Club World Cup quarter-final
Esperance de Tunis 0
Al Ain 3 (Ahmed 02’, El Shahat 17’, Al Ahbabi 60’)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh359,000
On sale: now
Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
The design
The protective shell is covered in solar panels to make use of light and produce energy. This will drastically reduce energy loss.
More than 80 per cent of the energy consumed by the French pavilion will be produced by the sun.
The architecture will control light sources to provide a highly insulated and airtight building.
The forecourt is protected from the sun and the plants will refresh the inner spaces.
A micro water treatment plant will recycle used water to supply the irrigation for the plants and to flush the toilets. This will reduce the pavilion’s need for fresh water by 30 per cent.
Energy-saving equipment will be used for all lighting and projections.
Beyond its use for the expo, the pavilion will be easy to dismantle and reuse the material.
Some elements of the metal frame can be prefabricated in a factory.
From architects to sound technicians and construction companies, a group of experts from 10 companies have created the pavilion.
Work will begin in May; the first stone will be laid in Dubai in the second quarter of 2019.
Construction of the pavilion will take 17 months from May 2019 to September 2020.
