Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
December 29, 2024
As the year comes to an end, the Middle East finds itself filled with a mix of astonishment, hope and cautious reflection on the surprising events that have reshaped its dynamics.
Lebanon provided the first unexpected development after Israel severely degraded Hezbollah’s military capabilities, but Syria also remains cloaked in uncertainty.
It is too soon to shed any apprehension there is about the future of Syria, which continues to cast a long shadow, with repercussions not only for itself but also for Lebanon, the Arab world and the wider region.
There is undeniable joy in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar Al Assad’s government. Yet while the emergence of a “new Syria” sparks optimism, caution is prudent, particularly in this transitional phase.
Optimism for Lebanon meanwhile is justified, but only if all parties involved adhere to the ceasefire agreement between Beirut and Israel. Further, Lebanese leaders must adopt a fresh, earnest approach to state-building – one grounded in integrity and free from the corruption and political bargaining that have historically plagued the country and contributed to its decline.
Undeniably, developments in Syria exert a significant influence on Lebanon’s stability. Any descent into chaos in Syria could pose a serious threat to Lebanon’s path towards regeneration.
However, Lebanon could be immunised against any spillover – provided that violations of the ceasefire agreement by both Israel and Hezbollah are halted. Additionally, progress must be made by the guarantor countries to finalise border demarcations between the two countries, following the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from all Lebanese territories.
Indeed, the implementation mechanism for UN Security Council Resolution 1701 offers Lebanon a historic opportunity to assert the authority of the state across its entire territory and to ensure that all armaments are exclusively under state control.
A shell from Israeli artillery explodes over Bastra Farms in the disputed Shebaa Farms territory, south Lebanon, last October. AP
A critical test for this new era in Syrian-Lebanese relations will be Syria’s response to the question: are the Shebaa Farms Syrian or Lebanese
Hezbollah is aware of this reality and understands that Israel’s military machine stands ready to act should it violate the terms of the ceasefire agreement. Further, Hezbollah’s leadership is adept at interpreting the regional landscape and recognises that the setbacks faced by both itself and Iran in Syria are not mere coincidences but pivotal events with profound implications.
The characteristics and messages of Syria’s new administration signal a willingness to embark on a fresh chapter with Lebanon – one that moves away from the patterns of Syrian tutelage, suppression of Lebanese autonomy and the imposition of “interdependence of tracks” in their dealings with Israel.
This interdependence had long prevented either nation from pursuing an independent peace agreement, even if one achieved the end of occupation. The former Syrian government’s infringement on Lebanese sovereignty lies at the heart of its oppressive legacy.
The new Syrian leadership has hinted at a commitment to non-interference in Lebanese affairs. By extension, this suggests a readiness to accept the demarcation of Lebanese-Israeli borders, potentially paving the way for peace agreements once occupation ends.
A critical test for this new era in Syrian-Lebanese relations will be Syria’s response to the annual question presented by the UN Secretary General: are the Shebaa Farms Syrian or Lebanese?
If deemed Syrian, the area would remain under the jurisdiction of the UN Disengagement Observer Force until Syria and Israel reach a bilateral peace agreement. If, however, the new government in Damascus acknowledges the Shebaa Farms as Lebanese, negotiations would shift to Lebanon and Israel, requiring the dismantling of Undof there and transferring the territory to Lebanon.
Yet such a scenario remains improbable due to the complexity of the process and the inherent risks involved in dismantling the disengagement force. The new Syrian administration’s approach to this issue will be a defining factor in shaping regional dynamics and its relationship with Lebanon.
The path to neutralising the Shebaa Farms issue can be reached through a definitive Syrian clarification of the matter, and this in turn serves as a litmus test for the new Syrian administration’s sincerity in fostering a transformative relationship with Lebanon. Demonstrating such sincerity is crucial in affirming its new intentions in relation to its neighbour.
Normalising relations with Lebanon would not only benefit Lebanon but also bolster Syria, as it navigates a host of challenges in its efforts to reinvent itself.
Syria, however, is in a precarious position, aptly described by a friend well-versed in international affairs as “walking on thin ice”. This fragility stems from internal vertical divisions associated with dismantling the old government and horizontal divisions among various factions.
The initial optimism and rush to congratulations that marked the opening of a new chapter with post-Assad Syria are quickly giving way to the harsh realities of its political landscape. Rumblings of instability have surfaced even ahead of the elections likely to be held in March.
With significant influence in Syria today, Turkey harbours concerns about US support for the Kurdish-majority regions in the country, despite apparent backing from US president-elect Donald Trump for Ankara’s decisions regarding Syria.
Were the US to withdraw its personnel and support for these Kurdish-held areas, there is a real risk of the forces that control them turning to radicalism and waging retaliatory actions against both Turkish and American interests.
The incoming Trump administration may yet recognise the importance of distinguishing between Kurdish factions that Turkey labels as terrorist and other Kurdish-led groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces, which have been US partners in Syria. However, failing to act with such nuance risks not only retaliation against Turkey but also the destabilisation of broader efforts to secure stability in Syria.
Indeed, Syria remains at the centre of uncertainty and peril. Reports of extremist groups preparing to transform it into a hub for a more sophisticated iteration of ISIS must not be dismissed. Should international powers, especially the US, neglect these warnings, they could inadvertently turn Syria’s hard-won progress into a catastrophe.
Supporting the new Syria requires prioritising its emergence as a modern, secular and inclusive state, unified under a cohesive national identity. It entails preventing the country from becoming ensnared by troubles in the Kurdish-majority areas, while fostering normalised relations between Syria and Lebanon as two sovereign states. For its part, Israel must abandon its policies of aggression towards Syrian sovereignty, committing instead to ending its occupation of its territories.
The justified joy of this transitional moment must be accompanied by a shared vision for development in both Lebanon and Syria – two nations with ancient roots and intertwined destinies. For now, both are treading forward on very thin ice.
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Family: Wife, Pom; and daughters Kate, 18, and Ciara, 13, who attend Jumeirah English Speaking School (JESS)
Favourite book or author: “That’s a really difficult question. I’m a big fan of Donna Tartt, The Secret History. I’d recommend that, go and have a read of that.”
Dream: “It would be to continue to have fun and to work with really interesting people, which I have been very fortunate to do for a lot of my life. I just enjoy working with very smart, fun people.”
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
Getting there
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.
The stay
Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.
Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com
8 UAE companies helping families reduce their carbon footprint
Greenheart Organic Farms
This Dubai company was one of the country’s first organic farms, set up in 2012, and it now delivers a wide array of fruits and vegetables grown regionally or in the UAE, as well as other grocery items, to both Dubai and Abu Dhabi doorsteps.
Founded in Australia, Modibodi is now in the UAE with waste-free, reusable underwear that eliminates the litter created by a woman’s monthly cycle, which adds up to approximately 136kgs of sanitary waste over a lifetime.
From brushes made of plant fibres to eco-friendly storage solutions, this company has planet-friendly alternatives to almost everything we need, including tin foil and toothbrushes.
One Dubai boutique, Re:told, is taking second-hand garments and selling them on at a fraction of the price, helping to cut back on the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of clothes thrown into landfills each year.
Offering filtered, still and sparkling water on tap, Bubble Bro is attempting to ensure we don’t produce plastic or glass waste. Founded in 2017 by Adel Abu-Aysha, the company is on track to exceeding its target of saving one million bottles by the end of the year.
This company offers refillable, eco-friendly home cleaning and hygiene products that are all biodegradable, free of chemicals and certifiably not tested on animals.
This bricks-and-mortar shop and e-store, founded by a Dubai mum-of-four, is the place to go for all manner of family products – from reusable cloth diapers to organic skincare and sustainable toys.
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Here, Dr Mohamed El Abiary, paediatric consultant at Al Zahra Hospital Dubai, shares some advice for parents whose children are fasting during the holy month of Ramadan:
Gradual fasting and golden points - For children under the age of 10, follow a step-by-step approach to fasting and don't push them beyond their limits. Start with a few hours fasting a day and increase it to a half fast and full fast when the child is ready. Every individual's ability varies as per the age and personal readiness. You could introduce a points system that awards the child and offers them encouragement when they make progress with the amount of hours they fast
Why fast? - Explain to your child why they are fasting. By shedding light on the importance of abstaining from food and drink, children may feel more encouraged to give it there all during the observance period. It is also a good opportunity to teach children about controlling urges, doing good for others and instilling healthy food habits
Sleep and suhoor - A child needs adequate sleep every night - at least eight hours. Make sure to set a routine early bedtime so he/she has sufficient time to wake up for suhoor, which is an essential meal at the beginning of the day
Good diet - Nutritious food is crucial to ensuring a healthy Ramadan for children. They must refrain from eating too much junk food as well as canned goods and snacks and drinks high in sugar. Foods that are rich in nutrients, vitamins and proteins, like fruits, fresh meats and vegetables, make for a good balanced diet
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
