As the year comes to an end, the Middle East finds itself filled with a mix of astonishment, hope and cautious reflection on the surprising events that have reshaped its dynamics.
Lebanon provided the first unexpected development after Israel severely degraded Hezbollah’s military capabilities, but Syria also remains cloaked in uncertainty.
It is too soon to shed any apprehension there is about the future of Syria, which continues to cast a long shadow, with repercussions not only for itself but also for Lebanon, the Arab world and the wider region.
There is undeniable joy in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar Al Assad’s government. Yet while the emergence of a “new Syria” sparks optimism, caution is prudent, particularly in this transitional phase.
Optimism for Lebanon meanwhile is justified, but only if all parties involved adhere to the ceasefire agreement between Beirut and Israel. Further, Lebanese leaders must adopt a fresh, earnest approach to state-building – one grounded in integrity and free from the corruption and political bargaining that have historically plagued the country and contributed to its decline.
Undeniably, developments in Syria exert a significant influence on Lebanon’s stability. Any descent into chaos in Syria could pose a serious threat to Lebanon’s path towards regeneration.
However, Lebanon could be immunised against any spillover – provided that violations of the ceasefire agreement by both Israel and Hezbollah are halted. Additionally, progress must be made by the guarantor countries to finalise border demarcations between the two countries, following the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from all Lebanese territories.
Indeed, the implementation mechanism for UN Security Council Resolution 1701 offers Lebanon a historic opportunity to assert the authority of the state across its entire territory and to ensure that all armaments are exclusively under state control.
A critical test for this new era in Syrian-Lebanese relations will be Syria’s response to the question: are the Shebaa Farms Syrian or Lebanese
Hezbollah is aware of this reality and understands that Israel’s military machine stands ready to act should it violate the terms of the ceasefire agreement. Further, Hezbollah’s leadership is adept at interpreting the regional landscape and recognises that the setbacks faced by both itself and Iran in Syria are not mere coincidences but pivotal events with profound implications.
The characteristics and messages of Syria’s new administration signal a willingness to embark on a fresh chapter with Lebanon – one that moves away from the patterns of Syrian tutelage, suppression of Lebanese autonomy and the imposition of “interdependence of tracks” in their dealings with Israel.
This interdependence had long prevented either nation from pursuing an independent peace agreement, even if one achieved the end of occupation. The former Syrian government’s infringement on Lebanese sovereignty lies at the heart of its oppressive legacy.
The new Syrian leadership has hinted at a commitment to non-interference in Lebanese affairs. By extension, this suggests a readiness to accept the demarcation of Lebanese-Israeli borders, potentially paving the way for peace agreements once occupation ends.
A critical test for this new era in Syrian-Lebanese relations will be Syria’s response to the annual question presented by the UN Secretary General: are the Shebaa Farms Syrian or Lebanese?
If deemed Syrian, the area would remain under the jurisdiction of the UN Disengagement Observer Force until Syria and Israel reach a bilateral peace agreement. If, however, the new government in Damascus acknowledges the Shebaa Farms as Lebanese, negotiations would shift to Lebanon and Israel, requiring the dismantling of Undof there and transferring the territory to Lebanon.
Yet such a scenario remains improbable due to the complexity of the process and the inherent risks involved in dismantling the disengagement force. The new Syrian administration’s approach to this issue will be a defining factor in shaping regional dynamics and its relationship with Lebanon.
The path to neutralising the Shebaa Farms issue can be reached through a definitive Syrian clarification of the matter, and this in turn serves as a litmus test for the new Syrian administration’s sincerity in fostering a transformative relationship with Lebanon. Demonstrating such sincerity is crucial in affirming its new intentions in relation to its neighbour.
Normalising relations with Lebanon would not only benefit Lebanon but also bolster Syria, as it navigates a host of challenges in its efforts to reinvent itself.
Syria, however, is in a precarious position, aptly described by a friend well-versed in international affairs as “walking on thin ice”. This fragility stems from internal vertical divisions associated with dismantling the old government and horizontal divisions among various factions.
The initial optimism and rush to congratulations that marked the opening of a new chapter with post-Assad Syria are quickly giving way to the harsh realities of its political landscape. Rumblings of instability have surfaced even ahead of the elections likely to be held in March.
With significant influence in Syria today, Turkey harbours concerns about US support for the Kurdish-majority regions in the country, despite apparent backing from US president-elect Donald Trump for Ankara’s decisions regarding Syria.
Were the US to withdraw its personnel and support for these Kurdish-held areas, there is a real risk of the forces that control them turning to radicalism and waging retaliatory actions against both Turkish and American interests.
The incoming Trump administration may yet recognise the importance of distinguishing between Kurdish factions that Turkey labels as terrorist and other Kurdish-led groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces, which have been US partners in Syria. However, failing to act with such nuance risks not only retaliation against Turkey but also the destabilisation of broader efforts to secure stability in Syria.
Indeed, Syria remains at the centre of uncertainty and peril. Reports of extremist groups preparing to transform it into a hub for a more sophisticated iteration of ISIS must not be dismissed. Should international powers, especially the US, neglect these warnings, they could inadvertently turn Syria’s hard-won progress into a catastrophe.
Supporting the new Syria requires prioritising its emergence as a modern, secular and inclusive state, unified under a cohesive national identity. It entails preventing the country from becoming ensnared by troubles in the Kurdish-majority areas, while fostering normalised relations between Syria and Lebanon as two sovereign states. For its part, Israel must abandon its policies of aggression towards Syrian sovereignty, committing instead to ending its occupation of its territories.
The justified joy of this transitional moment must be accompanied by a shared vision for development in both Lebanon and Syria – two nations with ancient roots and intertwined destinies. For now, both are treading forward on very thin ice.
The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X
Price, as tested: Dh84,000
Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km
Hotel Silence
Auður Ava Ólafsdóttir
Pushkin Press
If you go…
Emirates launched a new daily service to Mexico City this week, flying via Barcelona from Dh3,995.
Emirati citizens are among 67 nationalities who do not require a visa to Mexico. Entry is granted on arrival for stays of up to 180 days.
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
Top financial tips for graduates
Araminta Robertson, of the Financially Mint blog, shares her financial advice for university leavers:
1. Build digital or technical skills: After graduation, people can find it extremely hard to find jobs. From programming to digital marketing, your early twenties are for building skills. Future employers will want people with tech skills.
2. Side hustle: At 16, I lived in a village and started teaching online, as well as doing work as a virtual assistant and marketer. There are six skills you can use online: translation; teaching; programming; digital marketing; design and writing. If you master two, you’ll always be able to make money.
3. Networking: Knowing how to make connections is extremely useful. Use LinkedIn to find people who have the job you want, connect and ask to meet for coffee. Ask how they did it and if they know anyone who can help you. I secured quite a few clients this way.
4. Pay yourself first: The minute you receive any income, put about 15 per cent aside into a savings account you won’t touch, to go towards your emergency fund or to start investing. I do 20 per cent. It helped me start saving immediately.
What is blockchain?
Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.
The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.
Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.
However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.
Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.
The Penguin
Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz
Creator: Lauren LeFranc
Rating: 4/5
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Zayed Sustainability Prize
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday Valladolid v Osasuna (Kick-off midnight UAE)
Saturday Valencia v Athletic Bilbao (5pm), Getafe v Sevilla (7.15pm), Huesca v Alaves (9.30pm), Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (midnight)
Sunday Real Sociedad v Eibar (5pm), Real Betis v Villarreal (7.15pm), Elche v Granada (9.30pm), Barcelona v Levante (midnight)
Monday Celta Vigo v Cadiz (midnight)
Crime%20Wave
%3Cp%3EHeavyweight%20boxer%20Fury%20revealed%20on%20Sunday%20his%20cousin%20had%20been%20%E2%80%9Cstabbed%20in%20the%20neck%E2%80%9D%20and%20called%20on%20the%20courts%20to%20address%20the%20wave%20of%20more%20sentencing%20of%20offenders.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERico%20Burton%2C%2031%2C%20was%20found%20with%20stab%20wounds%20at%20around%203am%20on%20Sunday%20in%20Goose%20Green%2C%20Altrincham%20and%20subsequently%20died%20of%20his%20injuries.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%26nbsp%3B%E2%80%9CMy%20cousin%20was%20murdered%20last%20night%2C%20stabbed%20in%20the%20neck%20this%20is%20becoming%20ridiculous%20%E2%80%A6%20idiots%20carry%20knives.%20This%20needs%20to%20stop%2C%E2%80%9D%0D%20Fury%20said.%20%E2%80%9CAsap%2C%20UK%20government%20needs%20to%20bring%20higher%20sentencing%20for%20knife%20crime%2C%20it%E2%80%99s%20a%20pandemic%20%26amp%3B%20you%20don%E2%80%99t%20know%20how%20bad%20it%20is%20until%20%5Bit%E2%80%99s%5D%201%20of%20your%20own!%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tailors and retailers miss out on back-to-school rush
Tailors and retailers across the city said it was an ominous start to what is usually a busy season for sales.
With many parents opting to continue home learning for their children, the usual rush to buy school uniforms was muted this year.
“So far we have taken about 70 to 80 orders for items like shirts and trousers,” said Vikram Attrai, manager at Stallion Bespoke Tailors in Dubai.
“Last year in the same period we had about 200 orders and lots of demand.
“We custom fit uniform pieces and use materials such as cotton, wool and cashmere.
“Depending on size, a white shirt with logo is priced at about Dh100 to Dh150 and shorts, trousers, skirts and dresses cost between Dh150 to Dh250 a piece.”
A spokesman for Threads, a uniform shop based in Times Square Centre Dubai, said customer footfall had slowed down dramatically over the past few months.
“Now parents have the option to keep children doing online learning they don’t need uniforms so it has quietened down.”
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
Museum of the Future in numbers
- 78 metres is the height of the museum
- 30,000 square metres is its total area
- 17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
- 14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
- 1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior
- 7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
- 2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
- 100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
- Dh145 is the price of a ticket
The Bio
Favourite Emirati dish: I have so many because it has a lot of herbs and vegetables. Harees (oats with chicken) is one of them
Favourite place to go to: Dubai Mall because it has lots of sports shops.
Her motivation: My performance because I know that whatever I do, if I put the effort in, I’ll get results
During her free time: I like to drink coffee - a latte no sugar and no flavours. I do not like cold drinks
Pet peeve: That with every meal they give you a fries and Pepsi. That is so unhealthy
Advice to anyone who wants to be an ironman: Go for the goal. If you are consistent, you will get there. With the first one, it might not be what they want but they should start and just do it
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
