The first tumultuous forces of the year have already been felt in the West, as extreme winter weather affects transport and travel, and wildfires consume homes and businesses in Los Angeles at an alarming rate.
At the tail end of last year, there was a wave of terrorism in the US and Europe. The wider backdrop includes record deaths from conflict including in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine and elsewhere. The number of displaced people has exceeded 122 million, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
Health systems are currently creaking under the strain of a surge in flu cases, and the geopolitical reality is rapidly evolving.
Canada’s political landscape has been rocked by Justin Trudeau’s resignation, bringing to an end a decade as a prominent Prime Minister. The world is also preparing for US president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, with policies that he says he will put in place likely to have wide-reaching implications for the dollar, bond markets, global trade and commodity prices. This is not to mention the potential fallout from his stated desire to expand American territory to the north and south.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are locked in a very public feud. Chinese-made electric cars are flooding the industry even as we witness a stall in demand. Generally speaking, global trade winds are not blowing with as much force as we need, and economic growth is weaker than we want.
Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has aggressively shifted his stance on in-house fact-checking and content moderation on Facebook and Instagram. That adds to the increased dissemination of content produced using artificial intelligence-powered tools and programs.
Virtual reality seems set to make a comeback, even as crypto and other assets show how far we have come in terms of embracing technology. The lines of our digital experiences are blurring just as quickly as our physical ones.
Where does this leave us in the early days of 2025? All in all, without much in the way of positive vibes.
It feels as though many leading global figures are giving up the idea of a unified fight for a more equitable and prosperous future, and surrendering to what they see as inevitable forces of division and disunity.
In which case, how bad could the year end up being? Would it be comparable to 2020 when the world was hit by the Covid-19 pandemic? What about the years when world wars resulted in horrific losses? Would we be justified in taking such a pessimistic stance? How would the prospect of doom influence our decision-making?
It is true that the signs are ominous, even if it might not become the very worst of calendar years. I have never felt more pessimistic about our prospects for prosperity and well-being. But as often happens when my worldview takes a bitter turn, I delve into history for perspective. Thankfully, I can always find an illuminating benchmark and I take comfort that 2025 will, in all likelihood, not be as bad as 1816.
It was known as the “Year Without a Summer” in the northern hemisphere after a volcanic eruption in Indonesia in 1815 triggered the largest explosion of the past 10,000 years. A volume of gasses, dust and rock the equivalent of one million Royal Albert Halls was sent into the atmosphere. This led to famine, drought and poverty in many parts of the world. The weather was bleak and gloomy for nearly three years.
Yet the freeze was also a time of peak creativity. Mary Shelley was inspired to write her classic novel Frankenstein. The camera, the bicycle and the stethoscope were all invented during that time.
Whether my anxiety is truly backed up by fundamentals or not, there is always a more pressing risk that negative sentiment is enough to reshape our reality because perception is truth these days.
There is a responsibility to not be drawn by the allure of darkness, and it must be acknowledged how tempting it can be to see the world in such stark terms. Psychologically, it feels empowering to succumb to a bad news vibe. It can seem like an emotional hedge against suffering. Yet it also puts humans on a limited path because we aren’t seeing the whole picture, missing out on opportunity and personal growth.
One truth is that we are all, each of us and collectively, so much more resilient in 2025 than we were five or 10 years ago. It has been building up in the bank through the trials and tribulations we have been subjected to. So now is the time to spend it all.
Let us splurge in the face of mounting worries and not be turned or discouraged from doing the important work that needs to be done today, to deliver on the promise of a better future. We might find that this course ends up making 2025 one of our best.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
World ranking (at month’s end)
Jan - 257
Feb - 198
Mar - 159
Apr - 161
May - 159
Jun – 162
Currently: 88
Year-end rank since turning pro
2016 - 279
2015 - 185
2014 - 143
2013 - 63
2012 - 384
2011 - 883
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
UAE rugby season
FIXTURES
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers v Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Division 1
Dubai Sharks v Dubai Hurricanes II
Al Ain Amblers v Dubai Knights Eagles II
Dubai Tigers II v Abu Dhabi Saracens
Jebel Ali Dragons II v Abu Dhabi Harlequins II
Sharjah Wanderers v Dubai Exiles II
LAST SEASON
West Asia Premiership
Winners – Bahrain
Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners – Dubai Hurricanes
Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference
Winners – Dubai Tigers
Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
BEACH SOCCER WORLD CUP
Group A
Paraguay
Japan
Switzerland
USA
Group B
Uruguay
Mexico
Italy
Tahiti
Group C
Belarus
UAE
Senegal
Russia
Group D
Brazil
Oman
Portugal
Nigeria
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
