Happiness matters - but fleeting emotions make poor policy targets

Given that the world marked the International Day of Happiness recently, it’s worth reflecting on what role happiness plays in a rapidly changing Middle East . In some countries, it is a quality in short supply. According to this year's World Happiness Report – a collaboration between pollsters Gallup, the Oxford Wellbeing Research Centre and the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network – Lebanon was ranked as the third-unhappiest country in the world. This designation felt challenging for a nation that already faces armed conflict , economic difficulties , political gridlock and regional tensions . But do such descriptions tell the full story? The World Happiness Report relies on average scores from the Gallup World Poll, in which respondents rate their happiness on a scale from one to 10. What some readers may not realise is that mathematicians, statisticians and economists have long cautioned against using averages for this type of data. Looking at the median happiness level – a more robust measure of central tendency for this type of variable – reveals something surprising: using World Value Survey data, one can see that most Arab countries, including Lebanon, share the same median happiness category as the Netherlands, which ranks sixth globally in the same World Happiness Report. Now, in early 2025, both Lebanon and its neighbour Syria stand at a critical crossroads. With new governments seeking to rebuild their countries, an essential question emerges: should these new administrations place their populations’ happiness at the centre of their development and reconstruction objectives? While measurement specialists might find ways to address the statistical issues noted earlier, a more fundamental question remains: should any happiness metrics, however well-measured, guide policymakers in Lebanon and Syria as they rebuild? I believe not, and here’s why. Consider what behavioural science tells us about happiness: it’s an evolutionary mechanism that helps us make survival decisions. We feel happy when reality exceeds expectations and unhappy when it falls short. Since expectations constantly adjust, happiness measurements fluctuate with context, making them unstable foundations for national policy. Think of a Syrian family who lost their home during the civil war but found safe shelter in a refugee camp. If interviewed right after finally finding the shelter, their reported happiness might be surprisingly high simply because they are relieved to be alive. Should policymakers interpret this as success? Obviously not. The dramatic swings in self-reported happiness that often follow major life events demonstrate how these metrics can mislead when used to guide long-term development strategies. The focus on happiness as a development goal stems from utilitarianism, a 19th-century political philosophy that modern thinkers have extensively challenged. Instead, development economists like Nobel laureate Amartya Sen advocate for a capabilities approach, measuring development by people’s actual freedoms and opportunities rather than their subjective feelings. This framework asks not “Are you happy?” but “Can you live the life you have reason to value?” Many Arab countries have already embraced a framework based on Prof Sen’s capabilities approach. Working with the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, they have developed an Arab Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) based on concrete indicators of education, health and living standards. The Palestinian Authority went further in 2020, adding measurements of safety, obstructed access to one’s own assets, freedom of movement and women’s empowerment to their national MPI. These examples show how governments can use and eventually produce regular statistics to monitor development and create evidence-based policies. Yet even this system has limitations, particularly in addressing development beyond basic deprivation thresholds. Once citizens meet their basic needs, this measurement approach provides little guidance on further progress. Both Lebanon and Syria face unique challenges that require nuanced approaches. Lebanon must rebuild trust in institutions after years of economic freefall and political deadlock that have devastated the country. The recent conflict with Israel has further compounded these challenges, leaving the country with economic damages estimated at $11 billion by the World Bank. Many have left, but those who stayed behind endure daily hardships from power cuts to shortages of medicine while shouldering the full burden of the collapse. Syria needs to heal its sectarian divisions while reconstructing infrastructure destroyed by the war. Generic happiness metrics cannot capture these complexities or guide the difficult trade-offs leaders must make. As these countries stand at historic crossroads, they need development indicators that capture the full spectrum of human development. Beyond measuring income, education and health (physical and mental), they should assess freedoms, personal safety, social cohesion and women’s empowerment. These elements determine whether citizens can lead meaningful lives in their homeland rather than seeking opportunities elsewhere. Both Lebanon and Syria should embrace an approach that not only addresses multidimensional poverty but extends beyond basic needs in each dimension. This expanded vision recognises that true development continues well after basic deprivation has been addressed, pursuing university education beyond the secondary level threshold, comprehensive healthcare beyond just addressing child malnutrition, and full civic participation beyond minimal safety measures. With support from international organisations, both countries’ existing statistical agencies could implement regular surveys to monitor these broader indicators. Making this data accessible to academic researchers would create a virtuous cycle: researchers could evaluate policy effectiveness, citizens could hold officials accountable and government leaders could make evidence-based decisions that genuinely improve lives. This evidence-based approach recognises that happiness matters, certainly, but fleeting emotions make poor policy targets compared to the enduring capabilities that allow people to pursue their own vision of a good life. The path forward is not about chasing happiness rankings, but building societies where citizens have genuine opportunities to create meaningful lives. Leaders who adopt Prof Sen’s capabilities framework would ensure citizens have the freedom, security and agency to pursue their own paths to happiness, rather than targeting happiness itself as the metric of success.