US decoupling from China isn't the end of the world. It could be the start of something new

In a world of shifting power dynamics, deglobalisation trends and rising protectionism, many have sounded alarms about fractured supply chains and slowing trade. But beneath this turbulence lies an unprecedented opportunity – one that global growth and emerging markets must not miss. It is an opportunity to re-create global value chains in a way that creates more equitable prosperity in what many refer to as the “Global South”.

For decades, global economic growth was steered by the engines of the “Global North”, fuelled by the extraction of resources from the Global South, access to capital, advanced infrastructure and technology leadership. Growth markets – despite their demographic strengths, being home to the majority of the world’s population and in places like Africa and the Middle East, the youngest population – were relegated to the periphery of innovation. That era might be coming to an end.

The reality is that most of the world’s growth is now coming from these countries. Recent data from the International Monetary Fund suggests that by 2027, growth markets will account for more than 60 per cent of global gross domestic product growth. Africa alone will contribute 25 per cent of the world’s labour force by 2030. We previously referred to these markets as “developing” or “emerging”, now we refer to them as growth markets.

The rise of economic nationalism and the tightening of trade flows, particularly between global superpowers, have the potential to redefine the playing field. The US-China decoupling, the Inflation Reduction Act – a US government initiative seen by many experts as designed to discriminate against products manufactured outside North America – reshoring incentives and tech export controls may appear as threats to globalisation. But for emerging economies, they can also be a catalyst for local growth.

What was once seen as dependency on the Global North can be seen as an opportunity for growth markets to focus on bottom-up economic growth and build new trade partnerships with each other.

What is driving this transformation?

First, entrepreneurship is going local. As trade walls rise, so do incentives to solve problems within national and regional ecosystems. Startups are no longer just solving “Silicon Valley problems”. They are building home-grown fintech, logistics, healthtech, agritech and edtech solutions. From Nairobi to Riyadh, from Cairo to Jakarta, from Buenos Aires to Mexico City, entrepreneurship is not only surviving – it is thriving.

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Second, investment capital is shifting direction. Last year, the Middle East and North Africa region saw more than $3.2 billion in venture capital funding, with fintech, climate tech and logistics leading the way. Sovereign wealth funds are not just investing in the West – they are backing regional champions. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions between emerging markets and regional initial public offerings are also growing at record rates.

Third, governments are no longer passive observers – they are co-builders. In the UAE, initiatives like the Entrepreneurial Nation and the Golden Visa for talent are designed to create the best place in the world to start and scale businesses. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 puts small and medium enterprises and innovation at the heart of its diversification strategy. Across growth markets, a new developmental compact is emerging – one that centres innovation, inclusivity and resilience.

It is tempting to see fragmentation of global trade as a net loss. But what if it is the very disruption that gives birth to a new kind of global growth?

This is not about being anti-global or anti-West. On the contrary, this is about rebalancing global power dynamics. It is about realising that talent is everywhere, and that innovation should no longer be the privilege of a few.

For entrepreneurs, this is a moment of great responsibility – and even greater possibility. Of course, the challenges facing growth markets – youth unemployment, access to finance, energy transition, food security – are massive. But they are solvable. And the next generation of entrepreneurs will not just build unicorns, they will build systems, create jobs and develop new markets.

We believe the next decade will be led by bold builders from Latin America to Asia. Not as followers of trends from the West, but as designers of solutions that matter globally. The tectonic plates of the global order are shifting. It is time for growth markets to innovate their way to economic agency.

Dr Yasar Jarrar teaches at the Hult International Business School and is managing partner at Gov Campus

Dina H Sherif is the executive director of the Legatum Centre for Development and Entrepreneurship at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology