Last week, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated that “the decision has been taken” to give the state a monopoly over weapons in the country, albeit through dialogue and not force. The statement was directed primarily at Hezbollah and echoed the President’s inaugural address and the government’s policy statement, at a time when there is increasing pressure on Lebanon, from inside and outside, to disarm the group.
In his comments, Mr Aoun distinguished between the usual term used to discuss a process through which Hezbollah surrenders its weapons – a national defence strategy – and what he described as a “national security strategy” that “improved Lebanon [in terms of the] economy, diplomacy, security, the judiciary, finances, and information”. In this way, the President watered down the centrality of the group’s weapons, making it part of a wider national process to enhance Lebanon’s position.
Mr Aoun is no fool. He sees the tensions that today surround Hezbollah’s retention of its weapons in a deeply divided country. His efforts to temper the rhetoric around this issue do not mean he wants to hand the group room to manoeuvre. Rather, he has no intention of making the weapons a source of greater domestic discord, which may conceivably lead to civil conflict.
What direction might such a dialogue take? A large part of the answer will be tied to Iran’s calculations
In light of this, the President also revealed he would conduct the dialogue with Hezbollah himself. He added that “messages had been exchanged” between the two sides to move closer on this question, and that once things had progressed significantly, the dialogue could be ended with a more formal framework or session.
The President’s description may not have pleased hardliners who are impatient on Hezbollah’s disarmament. Yet Lebanon is caught between a rock and a hard place. If Hezbollah rejects a dialogue, Israel may intervene again and occupy more Lebanese land, making a withdrawal conditional on the group’s demilitarisation. So, Mr Aoun’s tactic is to initiate a discussion and make gains far from the limelight.
What direction might such a dialogue take? A large part of the answer will be tied to Iran’s calculations. After Israeli aircraft killed Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah last September, even as Israel was eliminating dozens of the party's senior military commanders, Hezbollah has been largely run by Iran, which played an instrumental role in naming Naim Qassem to succeed Nasrallah last October.
If Iran rejects the idea of disarming Hezbollah, it will be difficult for Mr Aoun to advance in his plans. It was no surprise, then, that Hezbollah officials took a harder line on disarmament last Friday, on the eve of the Rome talks between Iran and the US. This underlined that the group’s weapons are really part of a broader negotiation process between Tehran and Washington that transcends Lebanon.
However, even if Iran is holding the Hezbollah card tightly, it may be willing to give it up in exchange for concessions, because its value has diminished. Hezbollah’s military role has been made redundant because of its inability to mount new attacks against Israel. The group is isolated domestically, the destruction in Shiite-majority areas is immense, and Hezbollah no longer can rearm itself through Syria.
In this context, for Iran to try to revive its devastated project of an “axis of resistance” surrounding Israel with rockets seems almost ludicrous. Most of its allies have been crippled, such as Hamas and Hezbollah; or don’t want to fight Israel, such as the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces; or are too far away to matter, such as the Houthis in Yemen. Moreover, Iran doesn’t have the money to invest in such a scheme because of its profound economic crisis and sanctions.
The question, therefore, is whether Iran may be willing to put Hezbollah’s future on the table in its negotiations with the Americans. Until now, nothing indicates it would be, but these are early times in the talks. The administration of US President Donald Trump has indicated it would like to expand the scope of negotiations to cover more than Tehran’s nuclear programme and include its regional alliances.
However, even if Iran were to yield on Hezbollah’s arms in the negotiations, that would not necessarily imply a smooth disarmament process in Lebanon. Any move over its weapons could lead Hezbollah to make demands of its own to compensate, such as greater political representation in the Lebanese system.
Lebanon’s political order is indeed in need of reform, as the system put in place after the Taif Accord of 1989 is no longer really functional. Taif was never fully implemented, but even if it is, many of its shortcomings will remain. The Shiite community is entitled to more representation in Parliament than it has today, based on the country’s current demographic make-up. Organising a national forum on constitutional change may be a step in the right direction.
However, this will make for a much more intricate process than simply confiscating Hezbollah’s arms. If the Lebanese do decide to renegotiate their Constitution and establish a Third Republic, the group will have to give up its arsenal as a prerequisite for any such step. No one will negotiate with a community that is armed.
On the other hand, once Hezbollah opens the door to engage in a discussion on its community’s political representation, it will have truly looked beyond its weapons and placed itself under the authority of the Taif Accord – and therefore the Constitution – as Mr Qassem said it would in a speech last year. Was he sincere? Now is the time to test Hezbollah’s intentions.
Lampedusa: Gateway to Europe
Pietro Bartolo and Lidia Tilotta
Quercus
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SPECS
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THE%20SPECS
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The biog
From: Ras Al Khaimah
Age: 50
Profession: Electronic engineer, worked with Etisalat for the past 20 years
Hobbies: 'Anything that involves exploration, hunting, fishing, mountaineering, the sea, hiking, scuba diving, and adventure sports'
Favourite quote: 'Life is so simple, enjoy it'
In 2018, the ICRC received 27,756 trace requests in the Middle East alone. The global total was 45,507.
There are 139,018 global trace requests that have not been resolved yet, 55,672 of these are in the Middle East region.
More than 540,000 individuals approached the ICRC in the Middle East asking to be reunited with missing loved ones in 2018.
The total figure for the entire world was 654,000 in 2018.
Directed by: Craig Gillespie
Starring: Emma Stone, Emma Thompson, Joel Fry
4/5
The%20specs
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The biog
Favourite car: Ferrari
Likes the colour: Black
Best movie: Avatar
Academic qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in media production from the Higher Colleges of Technology and diploma in production from the New York Film Academy
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
THE%20SPECS
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Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
World Cup warm up matches
May 24 Pakistan v Afghanistan, Bristol; Sri Lanka v South Africa, Cardiff
May 25 England v Australia, Southampton; India v New Zealand, The Oval
May 26 South Africa v West Indies, Bristol; Pakistan v Bangladesh, Cardiff
May 27 Australia v Sri Lanka, Southampton; England v Afghanistan, The Oval
May 28 West Indies v New Zealand, Bristol; Bangladesh v India, Cardiff
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
AGUERO'S PREMIER LEAGUE RECORD
Apps: 186
Goals: 127
Assists: 31
Wins: 117
Losses: 33
Ovo's tips to find extra heat
- Open your curtains when it’s sunny
- Keep your oven open after cooking
- Have a cuddle with pets and loved ones to help stay cosy
- Eat ginger but avoid chilli as it makes you sweat
- Put on extra layers
- Do a few star jumps
- Avoid alcohol
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Avengers: Endgame
Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin
4/5 stars
The Lowdown
Us
Director: Jordan Peele
Starring: Lupita Nyong'o, Winston Duke, Shahadi Wright Joseqph, Evan Alex and Elisabeth Moss
Rating: 4/5
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Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
