With Wednesday’s midterm elections having split the Philippine Congress, politics in the country has taken an unexpected but interesting turn. How the resulting polarisation affects governing, and by extension the outcome of the 2028 presidential election, remains to be seen.
Midterm elections in the Philippines are usually a straightforward affair. Just as in the US, which established the current political system in the South-East Asian nation when it was an American colony, the midterms serve as a referendum on the sitting president. Where the Philippines diverges, however, is the generally strong performance of incumbent candidates, largely thanks to backing from state institutions.
In a country with few legitimate political parties or movements, it is often those candidates who are aligned with the establishment or with ruling dynasties that dominate elections both local and national. And so, just weeks before the current midterms, almost all major polling agencies projected a strong performance for candidates allied to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who is heading into the legacy years of his single, six-year term in office.
And yet there were major surprises in store.
The most notable takeaway was the impressive performance of candidates backed by former president Rodrigo Duterte, winning four of the 12 senatorial seats up for grabs and clinching several mayoral contests across the country. They dominated all the local races in the Duterte family’s home turf of Davao City in southern Philippines, while scoring major upsets in metros across central Philippines and in the capital, Manila.
Just as surprising was how well the long-marginalised liberal forces of Philippine politics performed. Former senator Paolo Benigno Aquino, the scion of a once-powerful dynasty that used to rival Mr Marcos Jr’s family, tasted victory – as did the progressive Akbayan party in a number of tightly contested congressional races that have historically gone to traditional, centrist politicians and regionalist forces. There were several other shocking results, including defeats for prominent celebrities in national as well as local races, that might reflect interesting shifts in voting patterns across the country.
This, of course, isn’t to say that allies of the Marcos family did not fare well: they won half of the senatorial seats as well as the bulk of the congressional and gubernatorial races across the country. Martin Romualdez, who is Mr Marcos Jr’s first cousin, is expected to retain his position as Speaker of the House of Representatives after his win.
The upshot to these results, however, is that the Philippines is left with an even more polarised and uncertain political landscape. There are now three major political forces – pro-Marcos, pro-Duterte and the so-called “liberal opposition” – and they will all be jockeying for influence in the corridors of power with an eye on the next presidential election, which is still three years away.
The final outcome, with votes still being counted, appears to be a reflection of the high-stakes political drama that played out between the country’s two biggest dynasties – the Marcoses and the Dutertes – particularly so close to the midterms.
For background, the two dynasties had forged an alliance of convenience ahead of the 2022 presidential election. But almost immediately after their victory, fissures began to appear between Mr Marcos Jr and vice president Sara Duterte, the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte. The ensuing, very public power struggle – that even included Sara Duterte issuing a death threat to Mr Marcos Jr – culminated in her resignation.
Tensions escalated in the thick of the election campaign, when Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and handed over to the International Criminal Court over his alleged “crimes against humanity” in connection with his controversial “war on drugs” while in office. The development galvanised the Dutertes' base, with many seeing this is a politically motivated move on the part of the Marcoses, with the former president securing a landslide victory in the mayoral race for Davao – even if he is likely to spend the rest of his life in detention in faraway Europe.
Another factor that contributed to setbacks for Mr Marcos Jr was how effectively the liberal opposition forces campaigned on alleged anomalies in the current administration’s fiscal practices. They accused the incumbent and his allies of corruption and the manipulation of the national budget to bankroll the campaign of pro-Marcos candidates during the midterms. It also didn’t help the Marcoses that the liberals and the Dutertes mostly abstained from criticising the other, thus creating a de facto tactical coalition.
Mr Marcos Jr made mistakes on the campaign trail, too. The conflict-averse President ignored criticisms from both camps, but his studied silence – based on the assumption that he had the advantage of being a sitting president – may have been a tactical error.
Going forward, a less co-operative Congress may be less inclined to work with the President. A more combative Senate is likely to stall his agenda. It will probably also drag its collective feet over the question of whether to convict Sara Duterte, who was impeached by Congress this year on charges of corruption and abuse of power.
The resulting stalemate in both chambers of the legislature will give the liberal opposition politicians outsized influence on a number of issues. This “third force” in Philippine politics is likely to steer clear of building a full-fledged alliance with either of the two dynasties. But it is expected to push through a progressive agenda that could then create momentum for itself in 2028.
How the future pans out is anyone’s guess, but the midterm results have undoubtedly added plenty of intrigue to the already drama-filled Philippine political landscape.
