Stop for a moment, when you have time, and ask yourself how you feel about your own economic prospects.
Note the word “feel”. This is not an exercise in critical thinking or rational debate – focus on the emotion of it all. It sounds simple enough on the surface but very difficult to accomplish in reality. But it is worth doing – if you haven’t already – because over the past three years, we have been living through an economic boom and we haven’t allowed ourselves to fully realise the fact.
This is because it has been almost impossible to not be affected by geopolitical turmoil and human suffering around the world. The brutal conflicts, in Gaza and elsewhere, the attrition from inflation, and the divisive discourse around migration have driven sentiment in the past couple of years, even if this era has been relatively bountiful for the global economy and for the Gulf, including the UAE.
According to World Bank data, in 2023, India’s economy grew at a rate of 8.2 per cent. China’s at 5.2 per cent. Turkey at 5.1 per cent, Egypt at 3.8 per cent, the UAE at 3.6 per cent. Australia at 3.4 per cent. The US at 2.9 per cent. Spain at 2.7 per cent. However, the UK was flat, Germany contracted, as did Kuwait and Iraq, for example, balancing out the overall world growth rate at 2.8 per cent.
Of course, statistics don’t allow us to feel but they paint a decent picture, especially given where the world was in 2020 with the catastrophe of the Covid-19 pandemic. So, shouldn’t we be feeling a lot better about our prospects? In particular how we bounced back and how that indicates how we might be more resilient than we thought?
Ironically the IMF’s outlook for this year is far rosier than one might have expected given the volatility of recent weeks. Apart from a handful of countries affected by conflict or long-standing issues, such as Sudan or Venezuela, respectively, almost every country in the world is expected to grow its economy this year.
It should be noted that, even when the IMF said it expected Mexico to bear the brunt of the recent round of tariff hikes by the US and experience a contraction in 2025, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum vociferously disagreed with the projection. “[International financial organisations] do not believe governments can do anything to change a situation that comes from the market itself, and we do not share this vision ... we have a plan to strengthen the Mexican economy,” Reuters quoted her as saying.
What Ms Sheinbaum says is universally true: policymakers and even ordinary people have agency, and they are not helpless in the face of changing trends, no matter how aggressive they might seem. What we choose to do now will make all the difference for our future prosperity. We are not helpless if we reckon with our own emotional state.
This is also how we make ourselves feel better about what is to come with regard to AI bringing forth the “always-on economy”.
After a brief dip in global growth that is expected soon, like a large intake of breath, we are about to embark on what will, in all likelihood, become the biggest economic boom in all of recorded history. As AI and the automated economy – which has been quietly building in the background – merge with the physical economy, businesses, services and trading will never stop turning. Not for rest, weekends or holidays. Time zones will cease to make any difference. Between bedtime and wake-up time, nothing will stop.
It will be the apex of a trend going back at least a decade, which started with the sharing economy and might have taken root sooner had the pandemic not hit when it did. Yet the trajectory never really changed, even if it slowed.
It is easy enough to imagine financial markets being always on. How about health care? Emergency complex surgeries carried out round the clock. Or the courts? Legal decisions on demand in the middle of the night. Non-stop autonomous transport by land, sea or air is already physically possible. We will always be able to secure a reservation at a Michelin-star restaurant that never closes its kitchen. Virtual conferences and events that last a week, month or year, are easy enough to imagine. How about instant news and analyses from avatars that look and sound like you? Films written, produced and distributed in a single day without a single human involved?
The foundations of the always-on economy are already there in supply chains and manufacturing systems now wedded to blockchains.
I ask again. How do we feel about this? If many of us aren’t a little optimistic and happy in the face of this future barrelling towards us, that’s of course understandable. But the goal right now should be to get to an emotional place where we can be. If we are unable to, then we sow the seeds for further turmoil and create a fertile landscape for more populism and uncertainty, divisiveness and fearmongering.
We can of course feel sad about the suffering from the anticipated cost of such a transformation of the economy, as there will always be some pain from change. Yet it’s worth stating again: we are not helpless. In any revolution, people have the power to decide how it affects fashion, morals, leisure pursuits and culture. As we find that we have an abundance of time on our hands, we can choose to prioritise faith, mental health, family and relationships.
Right now, we can also put a premium on the value of human-led services and transactions. Sacrifice a little short-term profit in return for bigger gains down the line by being willing and open to paying more to have a person hand over your new car, judge your case, cook your meal or treat your illness and fly your plane.
