Iran's lorry drivers are unhappy. Their strike could cripple the country

Even as many Iran watchers stay focused on its nuclear talks with the US, the country itself has been gripped by a nationwide lorry drivers’ strike over the past week.

The unions organising the strike say it has spread to more than 125 cities, including large metros like Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz. Independent news outlets based outside the country have published reports, images and interviews on the issue. While it hasn’t led to a total shutdown yet, the movement has grown considerably since it was announced last Thursday.

The unions have regularly put out statements calling for solidarity and reiterating their demands, which include making insurance, fuel and spare parts more affordable. Lorry drivers do receive subsidised fuel, but they say it is not enough to cover all the routes they take. They point to corrupt practices such as drivers with the right connections getting fuel beyond their quotas. They are also demanding better pay to help cover their costs.

The strike, in and of itself, might seem to many like a routine call to action. But it has potency when viewed in the context of the broader economic challenges that ordinary Iranians are currently dealing with, including high prices and endemic corruption. With more than 70 per cent of Iran’s goods being delivered by road, a prolonged strike could cripple the country.

Apart from the economic impact of these protests, authorities also worry about the widespread support lorry drivers have received so far. Narges Mohammadi, a human rights activist and Nobel laureate, has backed the strike – as has Tehran’s Bus Drivers Union, perhaps the most venerable trade union in Iran. On Sunday, a pensioners’ rally in the south-western city of Ahvaz featured chants such as “truckers, we support you”.

A crackdown is already in full swing. Many drivers have been arrested in Shiraz, with the city’s prosecutor making threats to anyone who joins the strike. There have been detentions in other regions as well; police in the southern province of Hormozgan arrested an individual for a call to strike on the internet. The drivers’ unions have condemned these arrests, saying they show desperation on the part of the authorities.

The strike has also exposed fissures within the establishment.

The hardliner daily Kayhan has blamed President Masoud Pezeshkian’s reformist government for the country’s economic problems. In an editorial on Monday, it said the fault for the strike lies with the ministries overseeing roads, industry, oil and agriculture. The editorial also singled out Farzaneh Sadegh, the only female member of Mr Pezeshkian’s cabinet, who has often been targeted by hardliners. It didn’t help that Ms Sadegh was on an official visit to Iraq just as the strike got under way, with her opponents accusing her of misplaced priorities.

But while targeting the current administration for Iran’s age-old structural problems might seem politically expedient, such blame games can backfire. In 2017, for instance, hardliners in the north-eastern city of Mashhad staged demonstrations against the centrist administration of Hassan Rouhani – ostensibly over high food prices – in the hope that it would weaken him politically. Instead, they ended up sparking nationwide protests against the broader establishment that is dominated by hardline figures.

Authorities, meanwhile, are using the time-tested tactic of pinning the strike on foreign provocations.

Some senior officials, such as Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have no doubt pledged to look into the lorry drivers’ demands. But vague promises are unlikely to quell the strike, particularly as many lorry drivers point to systemic corruption – including within the establishment – for their problems. Regardless, the government will need to act fast if it wants the strike to end.

The drivers’ demands won’t be easy to meet straightaway, hence a number of organisations both inside and outside government will need to work together. The Ministry of Petroleum will need to provide adequate fuel. The Ministry of Roads and Urban Development will need to make insurance fees more affordable – an onerous task given that increasing the fees has been codified into law. The state will also need to lean heavily on the private sector to raise the drivers’ pay.

Failing to do any of this could risk the strike getting bigger. One need only think back to 2018-2019, when a similar strike mushroomed into widespread protests before it was brutally suppressed. This time around, however, the government also has to contend with a weeks-long bakers’ strike over irregular electricity supply and the aforementioned pensioners’ protests.

All this leaves Iran’s establishment with little option but to act swiftly and positively. The last thing it needs right now, amid all the challenges it faces on so many fronts, is a broader workers’ revolt.