Trump's strikes are a major setback for Iran's nuclear programme, but the regime remains intact


Ali Alfoneh
Ali Alfoneh
  • English
  • Arabic

June 22, 2025

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initiated a war he knew Israel could not win on its own, wagering instead that he could get US President Donald Trump into finishing the job for him. So far, the gamble appears to have partially paid off: Mr Trump, despite his well-known aversion to entangling the US in another “forever war”, nonetheless authorised a strike that significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, effectively removing the prospect of nuclear weaponisation in the near and medium terms.

Tactically, it was a success for Israel. Strategically, however, the outcome remains far less certain.

The Islamic Republic’s core command-and-control architecture remains intact, at least for now. The political leadership, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, retains operational cohesion. Iran’s coercive institutions – the IRGC, the Ministry of Intelligence and the Basij paramilitary forces – continue to function with efficacy. Even former establishment insiders and political dissidents, such as former parliamentary speaker Mehdi Karroubi, issued calls for national unity under enemy bombardment. No high-level defections have been reported.

The Iranian public did not rise against its rulers. Faced with existential threat, most Iranians retreated into survival mode. There are signs of a limited “rally-around-the-flag” effect, as nationalist sentiment temporarily bridges the divide between establishment and society. The outlawed Mojahedin-e-Khalq, which had supported Iraq’s war against Iran in the 1980s, remains marginal. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince who publicly endorsed Israeli air strikes, may find himself in a similar position as the number of civilian casualties rises.

Equally disheartening from the perspective of Israeli strategic planners is the absence of internal insurgency. The editorial pages of The Jerusalem Post called for support to Iran’s Baloch, Kurdish and Arab minorities, long marginalised and intermittently restive, but apart from minor incidents, no large-scale armed uprisings have materialised. Iran’s centralised security state, hardened by decades of internal unrest, appears firmly in control, even in the historically volatile border regions.

This leaves Israel trapped in an open-ended conflict. The air campaign continues, but with diminishing returns. Iran has so far demonstrated strategic patience, avoiding retaliation against US military assets. This restraint reflects a calculated decision to avoid full-scale American involvement. Mr Trump’s address to the nation following the strikes was consistent with his long-standing reluctance to engage in major overseas military commitments. Regime change in Tehran does not appear to be part of Washington’s current agenda.

This posture places Mr Netanyahu and Israel in an increasingly precarious position. Without a decisive knockout blow and lacking a regional coalition to share the burden, Israel risks strategic overextension. Worse still, Iran retains escalation options. There is the risk of Tehran, under continued bombardments from Israel, internationalising the conflict by targeting energy infrastructure in the region or blocking international waterways.

It is possible that Israel, as the initiator of the war, finds itself diplomatically isolated by the resulting global outcry, while the regime it sought to dismantle claims victory through survival. The Iranian leadership, adept at constructing narratives of resistance, would present endurance as triumph, not through battlefield success but through continued existence. As with the war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988, the longer the war continues, the more it may consolidate the regime’s position.

This is the central miscalculation of Mr Netanyahu’s strategy. It was predicated on the flawed assumption that external pressure alone could produce regime change or mass revolt. It underestimated the establishment’s institutional resilience, overestimated the opposition’s capacity to mobilise and misread the limits of American political will. It also conflated tactical success – the destruction of centrifuges – with strategic transformation. But Iran is not Gaza, and the IRGC is not Hamas. The Islamic Republic has a deeper state apparatus and a long record of survival under duress.

If Israel’s objective was to delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it has done so, temporarily. But if the broader aim was to induce regime collapse or significant internal instability, current indicators point to failure. The greater risk now is that Israel becomes entangled in a protracted war of attrition against a regime that specialises in strategic endurance. The longer the conflict drags on without resolution, the more Mr Netanyahu’s gamble threatens to backfire, both diplomatically and domestically, as Israeli society confronts the toll of a campaign with no clear exit.

In the end, the Islamic Republic may emerge from this conflict damaged but intact. If Israel is eventually compelled, by international pressure or operational fatigue, to suspend its bombing campaign, Tehran will claim victory. And in the political logic of authoritarian regimes, mere survival in the face of overwhelming external force is often enough to do so. Mr Netanyahu may succeed in delaying Iran’s nuclear programme, but at the price of strategic stalemate – and an emboldened adversary.

CHINESE GRAND PRIX STARTING GRID

1st row
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)

2nd row
Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes-GP)
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)

3rd row
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing)
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull Racing)

4th row
Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)
Sergio Perez (Force India)

5th row
Carlos Sainz Jr (Renault)
Romain Grosjean (Haas)

6th row
Kevin Magnussen (Haas)
Esteban Ocon (Force India)

7th row
Fernando Alonso (McLaren)
Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren)

8th row
Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso)
Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)

9th row
Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso)
Lance Stroll (Williams)

10th row
Charles Leclerc (Sauber)
arcus Ericsson (Sauber)

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApple%20Music%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20individual%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2410.99%20(from%20%249.99)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20family%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2416.99%20(from%20%2414.99)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIndividual%20annual%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24109%20(from%20%2499)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApple%20TV%2B%3Cbr%3EMonthly%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%246.99%20(from%20%244.99)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAnnual%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2469%20(from%20%2449.99)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApple%20One%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20individual%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2416.95%20(from%20%2414.95)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20family%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2422.95%20(from%20%2419.95)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20premier%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2432.95%20(from%20%2429.95)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

Price: From Dh126,000

Available: Now

 

 

2024%20Dubai%20Marathon%20Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWomen%E2%80%99s%20race%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Tigist%20Ketema%20(ETH)%202hrs%2016min%207sec%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Ruti%20Aga%20(ETH)%202%3A18%3A09%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Dera%20Dida%20(ETH)%202%3A19%3A29%0D%3Cbr%3EMen's%20race%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Addisu%20Gobena%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A01%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lemi%20Dumicha%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A20%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20DejeneMegersa%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A42%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Engine: 5.6-litre V8

Transmission: seven-speed automatic

Power: 400hp

Torque: 560Nm

Price: Dh234,000 - Dh329,000

On sale: now

Desert Warrior

Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley

Director: Rupert Wyatt

Rating: 3/5

SQUADS

South Africa:
Faf du Plessis (capt), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wkt), AB de Villiers, JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, David Miller, Wayne Parnell, Dane Paterson, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada
Coach: Ottis Gibson

Bangladesh:
Mashrafe Mortaza (capt), Imrul Kayes, Liton Das (wkt), Mahmudullah, Mehidy Hasan, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mominul Haque, Mushfiqur Rahim (wkt), Mustafizur Rahman, Nasir Hossain, Rubel Hossain, Sabbir Rahman, Shakib Al Hasan, Soumya Sarkar, Tamim Iqbal, Taskin Ahmed.
Coach: Chandika Hathurusingha

SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2A)
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Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder

Started: October 2021

Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Industry: technology, logistics

Investors: A15 and self-funded 

Tamkeen's offering
  • Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
  • Option 2: 50% across three years
  • Option 3: 30% across five years 
Gothia Cup 2025

4,872 matches 

1,942 teams

116 pitches

76 nations

26 UAE teams

15 Lebanese teams

2 Kuwaiti teams

Results:

Men’s wheelchair 200m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 27.14; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 27.81; 3. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 27.81.

Trump v Khan

2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US

2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks

2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit

2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”

2022:  Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency

July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”

Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.

Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”

Classification of skills

A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation. 

A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.

The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000. 

'Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower'
Michael Beckley, Cornell Press

SUCCESSION%20SEASON%204%20EPISODE%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreated%20by%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJesse%20Armstrong%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Brian%20Cox%2C%20Jeremy%20Strong%2C%20Kieran%20Culkin%2C%20Sarah%20Snook%2C%20Nicholas%20Braun%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

Key findings of Jenkins report
  • Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
  • Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
  • Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
  • Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Types of bank fraud

1) Phishing

Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.

2) Smishing

The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.

3) Vishing

The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.

4) SIM swap

Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.

5) Identity theft

Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.

6) Prize scams

Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.

The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz C200 Coupe


Price, base: Dh201,153
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 204hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 300Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km

PROFILE OF SWVL

Started: April 2017

Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport

Size: 450 employees

Investment: approximately $80 million

Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani

Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom" 

Updated: June 22, 2025, 8:37 AM