Is Iran running out of water?

For months now, Iranians have become used to a terrible new reality: electricity shortages that lead to power cuts, scheduled and unscheduled, all over the country. This practice, also known as load-shedding, has long been common in countries such as Pakistan or South Africa but it had little precedence in energy-rich Iran. Far from a temporary measure, it is now becoming a facet of life in Iranian cities.

In recent weeks, a similar measure has been applied to the country’s running water. Water is cut in many areas around the country and now Iranians worry if this is to become the new status quo. Once taken for granted, could running water become a luxury?

This week alone, water cuts have been scheduled in major cities such as Tehran, Tabriz, Yasouj and parts of the southern province of Hormuzgan. Many public toilets in Tehran had water cut, leading to hygiene problems in the capital. In some areas of southern Tehran, the traditionally poorer quarters of the city, water is now cut from 11pm to 11am.

Even though Iranian officials sometimes downplay the country’s problems, no one denies the extent of the water problems today. Mohammad Mokhber, a former vice president and an adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said: “We face a serious reduction of water resources and if we don’t act fast enough, we will face incurable crises in the near future.”

On Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian paid an unannounced visit to the Ministry of Energy. Addressing the water crisis, he said if something wasn’t done about it, “it would only get deeper and create more crises”.

Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi also didn’t sugarcoat the problem in his meeting with the President. He pointed out that the five grand dams around Tehran, which have long supplied the capital's water, are now below 20 per cent full, operating on a much lower level compared to last year. A spokesperson for the ministry said 24 of Iran’s 31 provinces suffer from water tension and the same is true for 50 cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Arak, Saveh, Baneh and Bandar Abbas.

Tehran, like many other Iranian cities, can get very hot in the summers with temperatures getting close to 40°C. This means an increased use of air conditioning, more frequent showers and a higher consumption of potable water. It also makes life without water much harder, and it could even threaten the lives of those with serious illnesses.

The water crisis doesn’t affect everyone equally, and it has also exposed class divisions in the country. Buying mineral water or resorting to water tankers is unaffordable for many people. Southern Tehranis complain that their water is cut much more than the more affluent quarters in the northern parts of the city.

There are many suspicions, conspiracies and complaints about inequality of water distribution and access around the country which can also include an ethnic element, making it more explosive. As the news outlet Eqtesad Online wrote: “Cutting water these days is no longer a simple disruption. It is a crisis that has disrupted people’s daily lives but also showcased social inequalities more naked than ever.”

As expected, water has become a hot-button political issue.

The issue is surely not unique to Iran or its government. Climate change and lower rain in recent years are to blame. The Middle East is widely recognised as the most water-stressed region in the world, with 83 per cent of its population exposed to extremely high water stress. Other countries in the region, such as Turkey, have also seen significant water cuts this summer. According to the Washington-based World Resources Institute, the six most water-stressed countries in the world are all in this neighbourhood: Bahrain, Cyprus, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman and Qatar.

But critics point out that these countries manage their problems better and thus mostly avoid the type of water cuts Iran is facing. In contrast, these critics point out, some of Iran’s worst water problems are the doing of a “water mafia” that includes well-connected cliques in the government and outside that avoid a systematic solution to further their own interests.

When the centrist Hassan Rouhani was president, a top water expert, Kaveh Madani, left his life in Europe to return to his homeland and serve as a top government official. But before he could finish a year, he was hounded out of the country by hardliners. Mr Madani had been warning for years that Iran suffers not just from a water crisis but from “water bankruptcy”. His warnings seem confirmed today and the hardliners who helped push him out are politically embarrassed.

Some officials ask Iranians to change their patterns of use. Mohsen Ardakani, Tehran’s water czar, said if the capital’s denizens reduce their consumption by 20 per cent, water cuts could be avoided. Some propose higher prices, fines or even 24-hour water cuts for households that consume too much of it – for instance, for their swimming pools.

But such solutions can only go so far for two important reasons.

First, the vast majority of water usage in Iran goes towards farming and not individual use. Without systematic changes there, Iran will not come out of its “water bankruptcy”.

Second, many government-linked institutions use water without any supervision, often without even paying for it. Iranian law allows free water, electricity and gas to mosques, religious centres (including those for religious minorities), seminaries and shrines. The same exemption is applied to the bases of Basij, the volunteer force of the powerful militia Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

There are tens of thousands of such institutions in the country including 85,000 mosques, 60,000 Basij bases, 3,000 Quran education centres and 1,000 Shiite seminaries. According to the Ministry of Energy, mosques in Tehran are overspending electricity. A report by London-based outlet IranWire points out that this is probably true for water as well.

At least, Dr Pezeshkian’s administration seems to understand the gravity of the problem. In contrast, the energy minister of his hardliner predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, once suggested as a solution that Shiite Ayatollahs pray for rain. But whether the current officials can act fast enough to prevent a bigger crisis remains to be seen.

In 2022, Saeed Laylaz, a well-known economist, addressed the Raisi cabinet by warning them of how far-reaching the water issue could be. “The former Soviet Union collapsed due to ineffectiveness,” Mr Laylaz said. “One morning, they woke up and saw that there was no electricity in the wires and no water in the pipes.”

His words of warning sound prescient in Iran today.