The Lebanese government’s decision last Thursday to endorse the objectives of a US-drafted plan provoked a negative response from Hezbollah and, to an extent, its ally within the Shiite community, the Amal Movement. However, the two parties, realising the risk of isolating themselves further, did not withdraw their ministers from the government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
The document presented to the Lebanese cabinet by the interim US envoy to Lebanon, Tom Barrack, outlined, among other things, a process for Hezbollah’s disarmament. Prior to its Thursday session, the Salam government had ordered the Lebanese army to prepare a plan by the end of August. This plan would implement the decision taken by the state to secure a monopoly over weapons by the end of this year.
The legal basis for this process is UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for the disbanding of all militias in Lebanon, Lebanese and non-Lebanese; as well as Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon war. Resolution 1701 had imposed a Hezbollah pullback to behind the Litani River, but also reaffirmed the provisions of Resolution 1559.
It still remains unclear how the Lebanese government and army will be able to implement such decisions if Hezbollah continues to refuse to surrender its weapons. Both Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Mr Salam want to avoid violence at all cost, and seek to avert a rupture with the Shiite community, a majority of which supports Hezbollah and Amal.
One aspect that has been left largely unmentioned in this context is what Israel might do if Hezbollah and Amal manage to derail the government’s plan to disarm the party. Both parties, in their recklessness, have to grasp the real dangers if the Israelis resume their military campaign in Lebanon, especially given that they enjoy unconditional US support.
Hezbollah finds itself very lonely in Lebanon today. Many people blame it for having carried the country into a war over Gaza that was unnecessary, highly destructive, and allowed Israel to reoccupy parts of Lebanon, after it had pulled its forces out of the country in 2000.
Since last November, when the ceasefire was reached, Israel has continued to hit Hezbollah sites and target party officials, or alleged officials, almost on a daily basis. The Israelis also violated the ceasefire agreement by refusing to withdraw completely from Lebanon in January, as the agreement stipulated, a position supported by the Trump administration.
Since last November, when the ceasefire was reached, Israel has continued to hit Hezbollah sites and target party officials, or alleged officials, almost daily
A proposal by Mr Barrack subsequently tied an Israeli pull-out from the Lebanese areas that it still occupies to the demilitarisation of Hezbollah. By drawing this link, the US envoy effectively placed the burden of the continued Israeli presence on the party.
The Israelis will certainly take this into consideration as they plan their strategy in Lebanon. If the Trump administration is willing to blame Hezbollah for the Israeli occupation, then this provides Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government several options for what to do next if the party continues to refuse to disarm.
Israeli forces can occupy more Lebanese territory up to the Litani River, and proceed to destroy all Hezbollah infrastructure south of that – though this process has already begun under the Lebanese army. Israel's leaders can then make a condition for withdrawal that the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah, or even sign a peace treaty with Israel. Barring Lebanese acceptance, an expansionist Israel could even permanently annex Lebanese land.
A more ambitious plan would be for Israeli forces to occupy territory up to the Awwali River, at the level of the southern Lebanese city of Sidon, and make similar demands, or even contemplate annexation. This would empty the south of its Shiite population, while the ensuing humanitarian crisis would increase pressure on Hezbollah and the Lebanese state to comply with the Israeli government's demands.
If the Lebanese fail to do so, Israel could use its new installations in southern Lebanon to mount a long campaign to destroy Hezbollah positions and arms depots around Lebanon, using aircraft, drones, or commandos flown in by helicopter, as they did against a Hezbollah missile factory in Masyaf, Syria, last September.
Some observers feel that if the Israeli forces redeployed to southern Lebanon, this would provide a lifeline for Hezbollah, which could revive its resistance dimension by fighting the occupation. Perhaps, but the challenges are many. First, the party would be on its own in doing so, with many Lebanese wanting an end to the conflict with Israel. Second, without a regular arms supply line through Syria, the party’s capacities to sustain such a military effort would suffer.
And third, if Hezbollah tries to form a front against the Israeli presence, particularly along the Awwali, this would mean anchoring itself in non-Shiite areas, where local communities are deeply hostile to the group. Under such circumstances, Hezbollah would probably find it exceptionally difficult to mount an effective resistance struggle.
The Shiite parties, above all Hezbollah, are certainly conscious of their vulnerabilities. Moreover, Hezbollah does not appear to have a credible plan B. It is now under direct Iranian control, since its leadership cadre was decimated last year, and has been reduced to trying to defend an untenable status quo. The possibilities open to Israel make such a strategy even less likely to succeed, while the potential outcomes are deeply alarming.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Transmission: CVT auto
Power: 181bhp
Torque: 244Nm
Price: Dh122,900
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Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
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Stars: Kevin Hart
3/5 stars
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Small Victories: The True Story of Faith No More by Adrian Harte
Jawbone Press
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
if you go
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct to Kolkata from Dh1,504 and Dh1,450 return including taxes, respectively. The flight takes four hours 30 minutes outbound and 5 hours 30 minute returning.
The trains
Numerous trains link Kolkata and Murshidabad but the daily early morning Hazarduari Express (3’ 52”) is the fastest and most convenient; this service also stops in Plassey. The return train departs Murshidabad late afternoon. Though just about feasible as a day trip, staying overnight is recommended.
The hotels
Mursidabad’s hotels are less than modest but Berhampore, 11km south, offers more accommodation and facilities (and the Hazarduari Express also pauses here). Try Hotel The Fame, with an array of rooms from doubles at Rs1,596/Dh90 to a ‘grand presidential suite’ at Rs7,854/Dh443.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Duminy's Test career in numbers
Tests 46; Runs 2,103; Best 166; Average 32.85; 100s 6; 50s 8; Wickets 42; Best 4-47
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World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
The biog
Name: Timothy Husband
Nationality: New Zealand
Education: Degree in zoology at The University of Sydney
Favourite book: Lemurs of Madagascar by Russell A Mittermeier
Favourite music: Billy Joel
Weekends and holidays: Talking about animals or visiting his farm in Australia
