This week, the Iranian leadership’s strategic confusion reached a pivotal moment with further erosion of its prestige. The moment revealed cracks in its project founded on an ideology that uses Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen as tools in its self-declared “Axis of Resistance”.
Tehran thus now scrambles to gather the fragments of a waning hegemony that once made it a feared regional player, racing to regroup scattered proxies and summon traditional allies, including Russia. However, Moscow today finds itself in a reality of appeasement towards the only remaining superpower – the US – as it hopes for relief from crippling sanctions.
Both of Iran and Russia’s leaderships are walking a tightrope of anxiety, caught between yearning for the grandeur of regional and international influence and the sobering realities of today, which demand begrudging compliance with US President Donald Trump’s terms.
Iran’s leadership appears rattled by the prospect of renewed US and Israeli military operations, and by the potential reimposition of European sanctions under the “snapback” mechanism in response to its nuclear policies.
This mounting economic and military encirclement has sparked panic across Iran’s various power centres, who all ultimately fall under supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. That panic partly explains why Tehran has turned to its regional arms in a desperate effort to salvage its diminishing influence.
Yet in Lebanon, Tehran’s trajectory encountered a development it had not anticipated: it collided with a wall of newly affirmed Lebanese sovereignty, an outcome that defied expectations of an Iranian leadership long accustomed to Beirut deferring to its orders through its proxy Hezbollah.
It has become evident that the majority of Lebanese no longer want their country to be used by either Israel or Iran as a proxy battlefield for their interests. During the visit of Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national security official, to Lebanon, it was clear that Tehran’s arrogance was breaking under the weight of a defiant Lebanese state and people.
Indeed, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri took decisive steps towards a divorce from Iranian control. This is no minor development. Tehran had assumed it could wield Lebanon and Hezbollah as leverage in its negotiations with the Trump administration. Instead, it was caught off guard as the Trump team snatched that card from its hand.
Iran’s leadership today finds itself cornered by the declining value and effectiveness of its armed proxies. For Tehran, this signals a countdown to its own waning relevance in the regional balance of power.
So what will it do? Will Mr Khamenei drink the cup of poison that his predecessor, the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, famously chose when he accepted the ceasefire with Iraq? Or will the current leadership keep its head buried in the sand, refusing to acknowledge the serious decline in its regional weight, shrinking options, diminishing capabilities and fading prestige?
And what will the West decide in the face of Iran’s rising panic, part of which manifested in the dangerous escalation by Hezbollah secretary general Naim Qassem, who resorted to threats against the Lebanese state and people should the government proceed with its decision to enforce the monopoly of arms?
The time has come for Washington and Brussels to take Lebanon more seriously.
The US is aware that the moment has arrived to raise the issue of Iranian proxies in backchannel as well as public bilateral negotiations. Tehran continues to believe it enjoys impunity for what it perpetrates in Lebanon because it assumes that the West cares only about the nuclear issue. Washington must now make clear to Tehran how wrong it is in that assumption.
Some may argue that the burden falls squarely on the US, given its influence over Iran, just like with Russia and Israel. That is true. But European powers also have leverage. Their top priority over the past three years has been to contain Russia’s influence on the continent, as well as its war effort in Ukraine.
The Europeans have responded with economic sanctions on Moscow, the provision of advanced weaponry to Kyiv and the expansion of Nato. They are watching Mr Trump’s moves vigilantly. At the same time, they are wrestling with their collective conscience over Israeli crimes against Palestinian civilians in Gaza and have waved the recognition of the state of Palestine as leverage.
While recognition would be a positive step, it needs to be supplemented with concrete actions – including serious sanctions – against Israel. Without that, Israel will continue imposing its agenda in the occupied territories.
Indeed, the weapon of sanctions might be the only effective means of altering Israel’s conduct – just like it is expected to exert meaningful pressure on Iran.
After all, had Washington not announced the scope of sanctions he was prepared to impose on Russia within a timeframe, would Moscow have rushed to request a summit with Mr Trump in Alaska?
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202-litre%204-cylinder%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E268hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E380Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh208%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
65
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Coal Black Mornings
Brett Anderson
Little Brown Book Group
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Company Profile
Name: JustClean
Based: Kuwait with offices in other GCC countries
Launch year: 2016
Number of employees: 130
Sector: online laundry service
Funding: $12.9m from Kuwait-based Faith Capital Holding
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Genesis G80 2020 5.0-litre Royal Specs
Engine: 5-litre V8
Gearbox: eight-speed automatic
Power: 420hp
Torque: 505Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.4L/100km
Price: Dh260,500
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
MWTC
Tickets start from Dh100 for adults and are now on sale at www.ticketmaster.ae and Virgin Megastores across the UAE. Three-day and travel packages are also available at 20 per cent discount.
The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
Price, base: Dh5.1 million
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm
Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
The winners
Fiction
- ‘Amreekiya’ by Lena Mahmoud
- ‘As Good As True’ by Cheryl Reid
The Evelyn Shakir Non-Fiction Award
- ‘Syrian and Lebanese Patricios in Sao Paulo’ by Oswaldo Truzzi; translated by Ramon J Stern
- ‘The Sound of Listening’ by Philip Metres
The George Ellenbogen Poetry Award
- ‘Footnotes in the Order of Disappearance’ by Fady Joudah
Children/Young Adult
- ‘I’ve Loved You Since Forever’ by Hoda Kotb
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
