Iran’s diplomacy suffered another setback on Saturday, when France, Germany and the UK triggered the snapback mechanism over Tehran’s “significant non-performance” under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
The move reinstates all pre-2015 UN sanctions, freezing assets, imposing travel bans, permitting inspections of Iranian air and sea cargo, including oil tankers, while prohibiting uranium enrichment, missile launches with nuclear potential, technology transfers, and reimposing an arms embargo. Yet the key question remains: will these measures inflict enough economic pain to alter Iran’s strategic calculus?
The real constraint on Iran’s economy does not emanate from New York but from Washington. Since the Donald Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign of 2018, American sanctions have been enforced with extraterritorial reach. European and Asian banks, shipping companies, insurers and energy firms have avoided Iranian business not out of fear of UN resolutions, but because of the consequences of falling afoul of the US treasury department. The dollar’s dominance in global finance, combined with Washington’s willingness to punish violators, has created a chilling effect far more potent than anything the Security Council could achieve.
The Islamic Republic already operates under near-total financial isolation
Thus, while “snapback” sanctions generate symbolic headlines, their material effect is marginal. The Islamic Republic already operates under near-total financial isolation. Its access to global capital markets is negligible. Oil exports are restricted to a handful of buyers, mostly through covert channels. Reactivation of UN sanctions will not close avenues of commerce that US measures long ago shut.
A second factor limiting the efficacy of “snapback” sanctions is the stance of key global players. China and Russia have disregarded US restrictions when it suited their national interests, building mechanisms such as barter, local currencies and shell companies to shield trade with Iran from American scrutiny.
While these arrangements do not normalise Iran’s commerce, they provide enough oxygen to prevent collapse. More importantly, Beijing and Moscow now treat Iran less as a pariah and more as a junior partner in a wider Eurasian order. Their joint declaration with Tehran under the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation categorically rejecting the European initiative was not mere rhetoric but a strategic signal to Washington that the West can no longer dictate terms unilaterally.
Apart from strategic signalling, the Iran–China relationship is probably also propelled by the economic interests of Chinese energy companies. Because Iranian oil carries substantial legal and political risk, it is marketed at steep discounts compared to global prices. Chinese refiners, operating with tacit state approval, keep the margin and, in doing so, have evolved into an influential lobbying constituency within China. Their vested interest in maintaining access to inexpensive Iranian crude not only sustains commercial ties but also reinforces Beijing’s broader willingness to shield Tehran from western pressure.
It is also worth noting that US policymakers, for all their proclamations, have often tolerated Chinese and Russian circumvention. Washington knows that full enforcement could worsen relations with Beijing. The US therefore pressures Tehran enough to weaken the Iranian government, but refrains from pushing China or Russia into open confrontation. The result is a sanctions order riddled with loopholes, which Tehran has learned to exploit.
This asymmetry highlights Tehran’s paradox. The country proclaims independence from western domination, yet its survival hinges on dependence upon Beijing. China continues to buy Iranian oil less out of solidarity and more because it secures a low-priced supply. The moment costs outweigh benefits, Beijing is likely to scale back. Until then, Iran remains a convenient junior partner whose desperation allows Chinese actors to dictate terms.
For Iran’s neighbours, the limited effect of “snapback” sanctions is a mixed blessing. Gulf Arab states recognise that Iran’s lifeline through China and Russia reduces the risk of Iranian government collapse and the chaos it would unleash. But continued Iranian resilience, and the constant threat of renewed Israeli strikes against an economically battered, diplomatically isolated and militarily vulnerable Iran, also raises risks. Facing existential threats, Tehran could lash out at regional oil infrastructure to compel exporters and importers to pressure Israel to stop striking Iran, or, if technically feasible, dash for a nuclear weapon.
Domestically, the leadership has long managed scarcity, but inequality now fuels public anger. On Sunday, Donya-e Eqtesad, Iran’s premier economic daily, reported 45.3 per cent inflation, the highest in 28 months, and a doubling of bread prices over the past year, warning of growing pressure on low-income groups. Meanwhile, the country’s elites flaunt their privileges on social media, enraging the 30 per cent of the population living under the poverty line. US sanctions, far more than UN measures, combined with corruption and mismanagement, increasingly risk provoking bread riots. And government officials, better prepared to suppress the poor at home than to deter Israel abroad, may respond with repression.
Western policymakers should therefore temper expectations. The “snapback” mechanism was conceived in an era when multilateral consensus on Iran was still possible. That era has ended. The global order is increasingly fragmented, with China and Russia openly contesting western initiatives.
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
RACE CARD
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 – Group 1 (PA) $65,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $65,000 (Turf) 1,800m
7.40pm: Meydan Classic – Listed (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,600m
8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy – Group 3 (TB) $195,000 (T) 2,810m
8.50pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (T) 2,000m
9.25pm: Meydan Challenge – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,400m
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
Engine: 2.5-litre, turbocharged 5-cylinder
Transmission: seven-speed auto
Power: 400hp
Torque: 500Nm
Price: Dh300,000 (estimate)
On sale: 2022
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
1st Test July 26-30 in Galle
2nd Test August 3-7 in Colombo
3rd Test August 12-16 in Pallekele
Teachers' pay - what you need to know
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
FIXTURES
UAE’s remaining fixtures in World Cup qualification R2
Oct 8: Malaysia (h)
Oct 13: Indonesia (a)
Nov 12: Thailand (h)
Nov 17: Vietnam (h)
8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21
- Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
- Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
- Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
- Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
- Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
- Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
- Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
- Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
If you go
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Luang Prabang via Bangkok, with a return flight from Chiang Rai via Bangkok for about Dh3,000, including taxes. Emirates and Thai Airways cover the same route, also via Bangkok in both directions, from about Dh2,700.
The cruise
The Gypsy by Mekong Kingdoms has two cruising options: a three-night, four-day trip upstream cruise or a two-night, three-day downstream journey, from US$5,940 (Dh21,814), including meals, selected drinks, excursions and transfers.
The hotels
Accommodation is available in Luang Prabang at the Avani, from $290 (Dh1,065) per night, and at Anantara Golden Triangle Elephant Camp and Resort from $1,080 (Dh3,967) per night, including meals, an activity and transfers.
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
2019 Asian Cup final
Japan v Qatar
Friday, 6pm
Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Match info
Karnataka Tuskers 110-3
J Charles 35, M Pretorius 1-19, Z Khan 0-16
Deccan Gladiators 111-5 in 8.3 overs
K Pollard 45*, S Zadran 2-18
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Company%20profile
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Ronaldo's record at Man Utd
Seasons 2003/04 - 2008/09
Appearances 230
Goals 115
