On Wednesday night, US President Donald Trump signed legislation ending the longest federal government shutdown in American history. It was a perplexing end to a strange saga. Both the Republican and Democratic parties gambled, and their perspicacity will be tested against reality – and each other – primarily in next November’s midterm vote.
Mr Trump and his Republicans showed no signs of wearying from the confrontation after 38 days of growing pain, primarily among constituencies Democrats either already command or believe rightly belong to them. Eight Democratic senators broke ranks through a deal with Republicans that gave them very little, including on the supposedly central issue of health care.
It’s especially puzzling because the party appeared to be winning the political battle, with key national polls showing that Americans blamed Mr Trump and Republicans for the shutdown. And the compromise came in the wake of an astonishingly comprehensive, indeed virtually total, Democratic sweep in elections around the country last week. Democrats won where they were presumed to have little chance and prevailed by overwhelming margins where they seemed likely to win. There was literally nothing providing any consolation to Republicans in the outcome.
This seemed to connect with polling data showing Mr Trump sinking rapidly below the 40 per cent approval mark and into the dangerous terrain of the 30s. There was every indication, then, that the political headwinds favoured Democrats, and that they are well-positioned to hold the House of Representatives and maybe even gain a Senate majority, which was until recently widely assumed to be unattainable, next November.
Everything seemed to be going well for them. So why did eight of their senators accept a seemingly terrible deal from Republicans and throw a lifeline to Mr Trump, who appeared to be slowly sinking below the political waves?
The reasons are predictably complex and multi-layered. One of the most significant is that the Democratic senators in question, and many in their party, were astonished at how nonchalant Mr Trump was about the impact the government shutdown was having on many Americans.
He was funding some of his most cherished policies, including immigration enforcement and pay for the military, in ways that are arguably extraconstitutional, if not worse, and he did not seem to care at all about damage to the interests and pocketbooks of millions of ordinary citizens.
Congressional Republicans were evidently either similarly unbothered or, in many cases, intimidated by the White House and party leaders from voicing any opposition. So the shutdown was only going to get worse, as evinced by growing chaos at airports where air traffic control officials were lacking to meet heavy demand. That was set to get much worse in the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, the busiest travel season of the year in the US.
Many Democrats thought Mr Trump was setting himself up for a deeper political disaster by appearing not to care about catastrophic travel meltdowns over the cherished holiday. But others seemed to doubt they could continue to avoid their own share of political backlash and, more importantly, to be genuinely distressed and dismayed over the impact the shutdown was having.
Trump blames all economic woes in the US on his predecessor, Joe Biden, but such arguments about the 'other guy' typically expire after six months or so into a presidential term
It’s particularly strange that the Democratic Senate leader, Chuck Schumer, offered Republicans an inexplicable compromise over existing health subsidies. These subsidies are set to expire at the end of the year – threatening the access to health care for three million to five million Americans – and many Republicans who have never reconciled themselves to former president Barack Obama’s healthcare reforms still hope to badly damage the programme, if not kill it, by doing away with them.
Democrats have been promised a vote on the issue in December, but not a positive outcome. They did manage to use the shutdown to focus national attention on the healthcare issue, along with other questions of “affordability” that seem to profoundly vex Mr Trump. He is continuing to blame all economic woes in the country on his predecessor, Joe Biden, but such arguments about the “other guy” typically expire after six months or so into a presidential term. Mr Trump is well into month 11, and these protestations ring exceedingly hollow.
But the federal funding bill only extends the issue until late January, so Americans may find themselves back in the same predicament in a few short weeks. If Democrats hope to use the healthcare issue against Mr Trump in the midterm elections, he may yet provide them every opportunity to do that.
Some may quietly be hoping so. They may even be cynically rooting for Republicans, at Mr Trump’s vociferous behest, to finally do away with the Senate filibuster rule that requires most legislation to be supported by a supermajority of 60 senators out of 100, rather than a simple majority vote. Democrats have often pointed to the filibuster as one of the more annoying counter-democratic features of the American system, even though it has been useful to both sides and is merely a Senate rule that has nothing to do with the Constitution or the underlying political system.
The eight Democratic senators who broke ranks this week may not all be cynical enough to hope that Republicans kill healthcare subsidies and do away with the filibuster in coming weeks and months. But emerging from the midterms with new majorities in both houses of Congress and no more filibuster limitation in the Senate would be a remarkably strong comeback after the devastation of the last general election. And last week’s election results certainly seem to suggest that’s entirely possible.
The most obvious objection to the compromise in the Senate is that the eight senators and their supporters are continuing to treat the current US political moment as a normal one, with standard calculations still fully valid. But the moment is not a normal one, their critics note. Instead, Mr Trump is clearly moving towards a strongman system and away from both democratic checks and balances and the rule of law that have traditionally defined the US constitutional order.
If rank-and-file Democrats, and most American voters, want to see their party uniting against what they view as an unconscionable series of usurpations and overreaches that threaten fundamental political norms and protections, then calculations about healthcare subsidies will be profoundly unconvincing.
Perhaps the best news for Democrats is that nothing is resolved, everything is still in play, and their primary adversary still appears to be sinking under the weight of his own miscalculations.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed PDK
Power: 630bhp
Torque: 820Nm
Price: Dh683,200
On sale: now
Sunday:
GP3 race: 12:10pm
Formula 2 race: 1:35pm
Formula 1 race: 5:10pm
Performance: Guns N' Roses
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
88 Video's most popular rentals
Avengers 3: Infinity War: an American superhero film released in 2018 and based on the Marvel Comics story.
Sholay: a 1975 Indian action-adventure film. It follows the adventures of two criminals hired by police to catch a vagabond. The film was panned on release but is now considered a classic.
Lucifer: is a 2019 Malayalam-language action film. It dives into the gritty world of Kerala’s politics and has become one of the highest-grossing Malayalam films of all time.
MATCH DETAILS
Manchester United 3
Greenwood (21), Martial (33), Rashford (49)
Partizan Belgrade 0
The%20specs
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Results
Stage 4
1. Dylan Groenewegen (NED) Jumbo-Visma 04:16:13
2. Gaviria (COL) UAE Team Emirates
3. Pascal Ackermann (GER) Bora-Hansgrohe
4. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal
General Classification:
1. Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 16:46:15
2. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07
3. Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 0:01:35
4. David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40
5. Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
Seemar’s top six for the Dubai World Cup Carnival:
1. Reynaldothewizard
2. North America
3. Raven’s Corner
4. Hawkesbury
5. New Maharajah
6. Secret Ambition
Brief scores
Barcelona 2
Pique 36', Alena 87'
Villarreal 0
RESULTS
Main card
Bantamweight 56.4kg: Mehdi Eljamari (MAR) beat Abrorbek Madiminbekov (UZB), Split points decision
Super heavyweight 94 kg: Adnan Mohammad (IRN) beat Mohammed Ajaraam (MAR), Split points decision
Lightweight 60kg: Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Faridoon Alik Zai (AFG), RSC round 3
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Taha Marrouni (MAR) beat Mahmood Amin (EGY), Unanimous points decision
Light welterweight 64.5kg: Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE), Unanimous points decision
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Haroun Baka (ALG), KO second round
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Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
SQUADS
UAE
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice-captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Nepal
Paras Khadka (captain), Gyanendra Malla, Dipendra Singh Airee, Pradeep Airee, Binod Bhandari, Avinash Bohara, Sundeep Jora, Sompal Kami, Karan KC, Rohit Paudel, Sandeep Lamichhane, Lalit Rajbanshi, Basant Regmi, Pawan Sarraf, Bhim Sharki, Aarif Sheikh
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Company%C2%A0profile
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How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
MATCH INFO
Red Star Belgrade v Tottenham Hotspur, midnight (Thursday), UAE
Silent Hill f
Publisher: Konami
Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC
Rating: 4.5/5
Results
Final: Iran beat Spain 6-3.
Play-off 3rd: UAE beat Russia 2-1 (in extra time).
Play-off 5th: Japan beat Egypt 7-2.
Play-off 7th: Italy beat Mexico 3-2.
