Even as US President Donald Trump continues to focus on foreign affairs, domestic distractions – especially those tied to the American financier Jeffrey Epstein – will have the ability to influence his mood. This might be the case if the Epstein scandal brings together opposition Democrats and Republicans from his “Maga” base.
With Democrats having recently won key elections, and with the US government shutdown battle having ended, the stage could be set for more slugfests between the country’s two main political parties. Mr Trump will probably devote much of his personal attention to these domestic matters, which will inevitably affect how much focus he can give to international issues. This is important given how centralised decision-making is in the Trump administration.
Washington appears to be making little headway on the wars in Ukraine and Sudan. It is threatening to move against Venezuela’s leadership, but the issue remains in limbo with President Nicolas Maduro entrenched in Caracas. However, it is the region where Mr Trump has made the most impact that could suffer from his emerging distractions: the Middle East.
The UN Security Council is set to vote on Monday on a resolution to institute a stabilisation force in post-war Gaza. Yet signs of stagnation in the Trump-led ceasefire process are beginning to emerge, with the US-Israeli demand for Hamas’s voluntary disarmament yet to come to fruition.
Mr Trump remains ready to give his approval for Israeli military operations against Hamas. And so, if the ceasefire plan – which rides partly on Hamas disarmament – suffers setbacks or stalls entirely, the real loser will be Palestinians, not Israelis.
The Trump administration also seems to turn a blind eye to the dangerous settler activity under way in the West Bank. This isn’t because the US President is likely to back away from his veto on Israeli annexation of the territory, but due to his preoccupations in US domestic politics.
Lebanon, too, risks being sucked into a whirlpool of Trumpian apathy, coupled with impatience and fatigue over the usual political games being played in Beirut. A US amber light on large-scale Israeli military operations is also in place in Lebanon, although it is on the verge of turning green if Hezbollah (like Hamas in Gaza) continues to refuse to disarm, sabotage Lebanese sovereignty and weaken the state.
But even if matters don’t escalate, the status quo will only leave Lebanon in a perpetual state of “neither war, nor peace”. That’s why it would serve the Lebanese state well to wake up to the consequences of its dithering and its attempts to circumvent the principle of sovereignty and its responsibilities to spare the country from further destruction and another Israeli occupation.
The one bright spark in the Middle East – by way of a breakthrough following years of armed conflict – is Syria. Here, Mr Trump’s envoy Tom Barrack has done a commendable job in helping to redefine Syrian-Turkish-Israeli relations. Mr Trump’s suspension of key sanctions against Syria is also a welcome development, although its implication is that the new powers in Damascus are now under American scrutiny.
What is required from Syria spans several demands: guaranteeing Israel’s security, fighting ISIS, bringing minorities into the fold, and keeping the Iranians and Russians out of its affairs. Also on the agenda is the normalisation of its border with Lebanon, provided the latter also delivers what is required. Syria also remains a vital piece in the broader Abraham Accords project, which aims to normalise Arab-Israeli relations.
Speaking of the accords, Mr Trump is preparing to host Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this week in a visit of major significance to both countries.
The two leaders will discuss security agreements, regional understandings and co-operation on peaceful nuclear and technological ventures, including artificial intelligence. On the bilateral front, this is momentous. Globally, it reflects a new era for a US-Saudi partnership that is geared towards conflict resolution and coalition building.
However, Saudi diplomats have repeatedly made it clear that no attempt to bypass the two-state solution to end the Palestine-Israeli conflict will succeed. It has signalled its willingness to establish ties with Israel, along with other Arab and Islamic nations, but only if the Trump administration secures Israeli acceptance of a Palestinian state.
Israel isn’t yet ready for such a shift, and Mr Trump isn’t prepared to apply serious pressure on Israel at this stage. Hence, no breakthrough on this front is expected from the leaders’ meeting.
All in all, it will be interesting to see how visibly involved the US President is going to be in resolving these and other outstanding issues, particularly at a time when he has to navigate the most difficult domestic challenges of his second term.
