On June 29, the director general of Lebanon's Finance Ministry, Alain Bifani, resigned from his position. He is the second official involved in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to resign in less than two weeks, amid signs that the government's talks with the organisation are stalling.
Mr Bifani is the man who has estimated Lebanon's losses on behalf of the government, but his figures are seen as too high by the central bank and by a parliamentary committee looking at the figure. Most disheartening is the fact that this sterile debate is wasting valuable time as Lebanon sinks deeper into a very serious economic crisis, with the national currency in freefall.
The political class, like the ineffective government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, is to blame for this situation. Last week, President Michel Aoun convened a national dialogue session that was a flop, as many key political representatives boycotted the event. Yet if Lebanon is to reach a deal with the IMF, a similar format will be needed to bring the politicians and parties together so that they can arrive at a consensus on reform needed to progress on a bailout.
Mr Aoun’s dialogue did not directly address economic issues, only “social peace.” With Lebanon on the threshold of hyperinflation, such an agenda made no sense. Indeed, the president has been largely absent as a national leader. The post-1989 constitution does not leave presidents with many prerogatives, but it does ordain them as “symbols of the nation’s unity.” Therefore, Mr Aoun is ideally placed, in principle at least, to help steer the politicians towards a compromise on reform.
Mr Bifani told a television station that his resignation came because he disagreed with the way the authorities were managing the economic crisis. If Lebanon fails to reach a deal with the IMF, the consequences would not only be catastrophic for the country, they would have existential repercussions, as Lebanon is rapidly running out of foreign currency reserves. These are absolutely essential for a country that imports the vast majority of what it consumes.
The ineffectiveness of the Diab government and of the political leadership in general has been breathtaking. The Lebanese pound has been collapsing in recent weeks, even as the government has printed more money. This suggests we are heading into hyperinflation territory. Economic reform will require that the politicians and parties surrender part of their corruption networks so that a deal can be agreed with the IMF. However, for now none of them want to give anything up before securing political concessions in exchange.
Lebanon could disappear as a country on its hundredth anniversary If reforms are blocked and an IMF deal isn't agreed
This should not come as a surprise. Lebanese politics has largely become a game of destructive brinkmanship of late. The prevailing wisdom is that the politicians and parties do not want to adopt the reforms necessary for an IMF deal. It is easy to assume the worst about them, but such a radical judgment is not necessarily true for a number of reasons. First, the entire system would collapse if no accord is reached, meaning not only would their corruption networks dry up, but so too would many of these leaders’ power base in the political order.
Moreover, Hezbollah, the main player in the political system, has shown a desire to preserve Lebanon as an entity that can protect the party from its enemies. That is why it was so keen to safeguard the political class and the sectarian structure when protests began last October, and that is why it is bolstering the Diab government today. Lebanon’s disintegration, which the absence of an IMF deal would ensure, would not only lead to geographic and institutional fragmentation, it would remove the covering of the state that had served Hezbollah well.
So while Hezbollah would probably emerge stronger than other groups in Lebanon, it would also have to manage an increasingly unviable situation, while having to answer to over a million of its impoverished Shiite brethren. Unless an IMF bailout is forthcoming, this is a burden the paramilitary organisation could soon find overwhelming — regardless of its illicit financing networks. Moreover, this catastrophic situation would be open-ended without the introduction of reforms.
Therefore, given the starkness of the choice, the only option at this stage is for the sectarian political leaders to discuss a package deal that would allow Lebanon to move forward with the IMF. This can only take place in a closed forum portrayed as an emergency national summit on the economic situation. The politicians and parties would have to use this venue to come to a broad agreement over what they are willing to concede in order to begin implementing a reform project.
The equation is simple: if reforms are blocked and an IMF deal isn't agreed, Lebanon could disappear as a country on its hundredth anniversary. It will become a Hobbesian environment – without food, fuel, medicine and all the things that a normal country takes for granted. The cartel in power would salvage little from the wreckage. That is why its members must negotiate an agreement among themselves. Mr Aoun has not achieved much, but at least he can offer the country a road map and save some shards from his shattered mandate.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 268hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: CVT auto
Fuel consumption: 9.5L/100km
On sale: now
Price: from Dh195,000
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Three tips from La Perle's performers
1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.
2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.
3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.
Ferrari
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Michael%20Mann%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Adam%20Driver%2C%20Penelope%20Cruz%2C%20Shailene%20Woodley%2C%20Patrick%20Dempsey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
How to help
Donate towards food and a flight by transferring money to this registered charity's account.
Account name: Dar Al Ber Society
Account Number: 11 530 734
IBAN: AE 9805 000 000 000 11 530 734
Bank Name: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
To ensure that your contribution reaches these people, please send the copy of deposit/transfer receipt to: juhi.khan@daralber.ae
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
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INDIA SQUADS
India squad for third Test against Sri Lanka
Virat Kohli (capt), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Shikhar Dhawan, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Wriddhiman Saha, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Vijay Shankar
India squad for ODI series against Sri Lanka
Rohit Sharma (capt), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Siddarth Kaul
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
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- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
Destroyer
Director: Karyn Kusama
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Toby Kebbell, Sebastian Stan
Rating: 3/5
UAE release: January 31
Batti Gul Meter Chalu
Producers: KRTI Productions, T-Series
Director: Sree Narayan Singh
Cast: Shahid Kapoor, Shraddha Kapoor, Divyenndu Sharma, Yami Gautam
Rating: 2/5
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
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Five healthy carbs and how to eat them
Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand
Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat
Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar
Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices
Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants
Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
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