Almost exactly a year ago, in the early hours of the morning, Syrian fighter jets dropped bombs on the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhoun, outside the city of Idlib. Within minutes, a nerve gas began to envelop residents, convulsing their bodies and choking them to death. More than 80 men, women and children died.
Once again, as had happened before when the Assad regime used chemical weapons, there was an international outcry and a clamour for action. Something must be done, the analysts bayed, to enforce a global prohibition on the use of chemical weapons in war.
The response, when it came, was celebrated, as US President Donald Trump ordered a missile strike on the Syrian airbase from which the chemical weapons strike was apparently launched, the first time the US military had conducted such an attack during the Syrian civil war.
But although Mr Trump's military response exacted a price from the regime and was praised for it, as a way to enforce the global prohibition on such weapons it failed.
Far from enforcing a deterrent, the response actually undermined the whole principle of deterrence. Because the point of the response was not to merely “punish” the regime for its use of chemical weapons but to ensure that the regime never thought of using such weapons again. And as the attack last week in Eastern Ghouta showed, that clearly did not happen.
The use of chemical weapons has served a valuable purpose for the Assad regime. So far, after relentless shelling of the besieged enclave, thousands have left or been evacuated from Eastern Ghouta. The use of chemical weapons is a powerful psychological tool to flush out the rest, as well as sending a warning to other areas still under rebel control, such as Idlib, of what might – indeed, almost certainly will – happen.
Certainly, their use comes at a political cost but, as has been demonstrated so far, it is a cost that the regime is willing to pay.
The point of a deterrent is not that there is merely a price to be paid for the use of chemical weapons in war but that the price is so overwhelming that it makes them impossible to use. It is the overwhelming response that establishes and maintains the deterrent.
By contrast, if the price is, to continue the analogy of cost, merely expensive but manageable – as it has been so far for the Assad regime – then use of chemical weapons falls into the same category as any other military weapon, something that comes with costs and opportunities. Far from being a weapon of last resort, it instead becomes merely one more in the armoury.
That is precisely what happened last year with Khan Sheikhoun. The cost to the United States of a response was staggering. It spent an estimated $100 million for 50 Tomahawk missiles to explode in a broadly empty Syrian airbase – but the cost to the regime was manageable with the loss limited to perhaps two dozen fighter jets.
Remember that it has been five years – half a decade – since Bashar Al Assad first used chemical weapons against civilians and in that time, nothing approaching anything that could be described as overwhelming force has been used to exact a price.
Last September, the United Nations issued a report that claimed the regime had used chemical weapons on 20 separate occasions and perhaps as many as 25.
It seems clear that, for all the platitudes of the international community, when it comes to actually enforcing the red lines on chemical weapons, mere words are enough. Far from prohibiting the use of chemical weapons, the timid response has in fact normalised them.
How different from another chemical attack just a month ago. When a Russian-made military grade nerve agent was used against a former Russian spy and his daughter in a town in England, the response was coordinated and politically costly. More than 100 Russian diplomats were expelled from countries across Europe and the western world. The response sent a very clear and unambiguous message to Russia – that even such a small-scale attack like the one in Salisbury would not be tolerated and would carry significant costs.
Given that background and given how hard the UK has been pushing for a response to the Ghouta attack, it is possible that the US will act militarily.
But what it can do today to enforce genuine deterrence, rather than merely punish the regime, is very limited. What is needed now is an overwhelming response but the wider political situation, with Russia and Iran so deeply embedded and the US administration deeply hostile to foreign entanglements, mitigates against it.
The prohibition on the use of chemical weapons has stood for decades. It formed part of the framework of the international order, the idea that even war could be subject to rules, norms and laws and that some weapons were simply too deadly to be used. Today, that prohibition has been effectively overturned. In the long term, that might be one of the worst legacies of the Syrian war.
After the attack in Ghouta, a photograph of a Syrian doctor in a hospital in the city was widely shared on social media. He was holding up a sign that said: “Assad sees no red lines, only green lights”. The light may have changed briefly to amber but the message is the same: proceed, but with caution.
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How Beautiful this world is!
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
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Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
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Dec 02-06: 2ND TEST v AUSTRALIA, Adelaide (d/n)
Dec 09-10: v Cricket Australia XI, Perth
Dec 14-18: 3RD TEST v AUSTRALIA, Perth
Dec 26-30 4TH TEST v AUSTRALIA, Melbourne
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What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
Draw
Quarter-finals
Real Madrid (ESP) or Manchester City (ENG) v Juventus (ITA) or Lyon (FRA)
RB Leipzig (GER) v Atletico Madrid (ESP)
Barcelona (ESP) or Napoli (ITA) v Bayern Munich (GER) or Chelsea (ENG)
Atalanta (ITA) v Paris Saint-Germain (FRA)
Ties to be played August 12-15 in Lisbon
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
