Wipe out half of March from the work calendar – and all of April and May. Does June line up as a zombie month as well? How long is the lockdown going to last all over the world, and can anything certain be said about the time horizon of the global fight against Covid-19?
Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has long held the role of “Mutti” – Germany’s mother figure – won plaudits for a clear exposition of the policymaker’s dilemma late last week.
She explained that the infection-rate was currently estimated around 1 in the country. This means that one person with Covid-19 is infecting one other person. If the rate – after loosening social isolation measures – rose to 1.2, the number of people needing treatment would rise by a fifth. Hospitals would get overwhelmed by the summer and the crisis would be measurably worse.
Forget the instant epidemiologists. Omar Ghobash, the Assistant Minister for Public Diplomacy and Culture, has talked of people becoming PhDs from the mythical "WhatsApp University". They are many – and their views are just as likely to be wrong as right.
Hard information is that the infection-rate cannot get ahead of the healthcare systems capacity to cope. Germany can claim some gains in its fight, largely as a result of their testing-based approach.
It has conducted 1.7 million tests and has pushed down the fatality rate among the diagnosed to 2.8 per cent. Its absolute death toll is a quarter of some of the worst-hit European countries, even as it is the most populous country in the region. However, it is worth pointing out that Germany also only records people whose cause of death was Covid-19 – not those with the virus at the time of death.
An emergency food is delivered to a family at a block of flats in London. Foodbanks have become an essential front-line service. EPA
Britain is another nation that has been grappling with the pressures of lockdown. Last week, the London government established five tests to come out of the emergency phase. It did so as it announced “at least” another three weeks of the stay-at-home regime.
The announcement was made against the backdrop of the heavy cost of the crisis on the economy. Activity has ground to a halt since mid-March. That it has not been a uniform collapse makes the situation all the more complex, as a report from the Resolution Foundation, an independent British think tank, made clear on Friday.
“A sizeable minority of the workforce is no longer working, leading to falling incomes; welfare claims have surged; job vacancies have collapsed; and the majority of businesses have either closed or face falling turnover,” the report said. “The economic shock has not hit all sectors evenly: consumer spending has fallen much faster for some businesses than others.”
In the update, there was a sliver of hope in a suggestion that after the initial shock, job losses did not appear to be continuing to increase. It said that data showed applications for unemployment assistance had halved from a previous week peak of above 500,000. It also said online searches for jobs, which have a predictive relationship with unemployment rate, had returned to 2019 averages.
A cleaner wearing personal protective equipment disinfects a bus at a terminal in Coatepec, Veracruz state, on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. AFP
An Indian traffic officer stands beside a coronavirus-themed globe at a traffic junction as he checks commuters travelling during a government-imposed nationwide lockdown in Hyderabad. AFP
A man uses a sewing machine to assemble a piece of personal protective equipment at a factory in Accra, Ghana. AFP
Graves for Indonesian victims of the coronavirus are seen from the air in Bogor, West Java. AFP
Nepalese sanitation workers in Kathmandu line up after receiving new personal protective equipment. EPA
A nurse arrives to test a resident of the Christalain home for the elderly in Brussels, Belgium. AFP
A 2,500-bed field hospital for victims of the coronavirus has been set up inside Tecnopolis, a science, technology and culture park, in Villa Martelli, Buenos Aires, Argentina. AFP
Healthcare workers of Jacobi Medical Center hold a rally against a new paid sick leave policy by NYC Health + Hospitals that mandates staff who are sick present a doctor's note. AFP
People walk through a market in Bayrampasa, Istanbul, Turkey. AFP
A worker disinfects the floor of a supermarket in Pristina, Kosovo. AFP
A homeless sleeps in front of closed shops in Paris, France. AFP
A policeman patrols Chinatown in Bangkok, Thailand. AFP
A security officer checks the temperature of a porter before taking him to a quarantine centre in Colombo, Sri Lanka. AFP
A pharmacy assistant inside a UK Boots store prepares medicines for a cyclist to deliver to vulnerable people in east London. AFP
A patient infected with the coronavirus is transferred back to intensive care after his condition worsened at the Emile Muller hospital in Mulhouse, France. AFP
An employee demonstrates precautionary measures on the assembly line at the PSA Peugeot Citroen plant in Trnava, Slovakia. AFP
In the long-run, the downturn could turn out to be a great leveller, closing the gap between different parts of society. However, enforced work from home has the opposite effect: one survey estimated that while more that 50 per cent of those in the top 25 salary percentile could continue their job remotely, only about 10 percent of the lower percentile could do so.
Barbour, the waxed cotton coat manufacturer, is one of many textile firms that have used their facilities to produce hospital gowns and other protective clothing for the local hospital. The head of the company, a venerable leader of a family business, described how the staff had enlisted in the effort.
Supporters of the Michigan Conservative Coalition protest against the state's extended stay-at-home order. Reuters
Bad news both undermines the solidarity of wartime societies and creates a perverse incentive to break with self-denying behaviour
Dame Margaret Barbour recounted how the firm had made sleeping bags for the trenches in the First World War and supplied uniforms for submariners in the Second World War. “It’s extremely worthwhile to know we’re playing our part,” she said.
Bad news both undermines the solidarity of wartime societies and creates a perverse incentive to break with self-denying behaviour. In the US, for instance, there was a far-right demonstration asserting a “right" to leave the home, a phenomenon that could proliferate.
So far, the evidence suggests that people are compliant in the face of a great disaster. Pushing into May and June could test that adherence.
Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National
2.0
Director: S Shankar
Producer: Lyca Productions; presented by Dharma Films
Joe Root (captain), Dom Sibley, Rory Burns, Dan Lawrence, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope, Ben Foakes (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes, Jack Leach, Stuart Broad
Asia Cup Qualifier
Final
UAE v Hong Kong
TV:
Live on OSN Cricket HD. Coverage starts at 5.30am
ESSENTIALS
The flights Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
Barcelona 3
Messi (27’, 32’, 87’)
Leganes 1
El Zhar (68’)
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
SERIES SCHEDULE
First Test, Galle International Stadium
July 26-30 Second Test, Sinhalese Sports Club Ground
August 3-7 Third Test, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 12-16 First ODI, Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium
August 20 Second ODI, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 24 Third ODI, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 27 Fourth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
August 31 Fifth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
September 3 T20, R Premadasa Stadium
September 6
Mane points for safe home colouring
Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
Dubai World Cup nominations
UAE: Thunder Snow/Saeed bin Suroor (trainer), North America/Satish Seemar, Drafted/Doug Watson, New Trails/Ahmad bin Harmash, Capezzano, Gronkowski, Axelrod, all trained by Salem bin Ghadayer
Japan: Matera Sky/Hideyuki Mori, KT Brace/Haruki Sugiyama. Bahrain: Nine Below Zero/Fawzi Nass. Ireland: Tato Key/David Marnane. Hong Kong: Fight Hero/Me Tsui. South Korea: Dolkong/Simon Foster.
Sole survivors
Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
Emirates exiles
Will Wilson is not the first player to have attained high-class representative honours after first learning to play rugby on the playing fields of UAE.
Jonny Macdonald
Abu Dhabi-born and raised, the current Jebel Ali Dragons assistant coach was selected to play for Scotland at the Hong Kong Sevens in 2011.
Jordan Onojaife
Having started rugby by chance when the Jumeirah College team were short of players, he later won the World Under 20 Championship with England.
Devante Onojaife
Followed older brother Jordan into England age-group rugby, as well as the pro game at Northampton Saints, but recently switched allegiance to Scotland.
Leaderboard
63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)
66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)
68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)
1st Test England win by 211 runs at Lord's, London
2nd Test South Africa win by 340 runs at Trent Bridge, Nottingham
3rd Test July 27-31 at The Oval, London
4th Test August 4-8 at Old Trafford, Manchester
The team
Photographer: Mateusz Stefanowski at Art Factory Videographer: Jear Valasquez Fashion director: Sarah Maisey Make-up: Gulum Erzincan at Art Factory Model: Randa at Art Factory Videographer’s assistant: Zanong Magat Photographer’s assistant: Sophia Shlykova With thanks to Jubail Mangrove Park, Jubail Island, Abu Dhabi
