“Have you ever borrowed a book from thousands of miles away?”
In 1993, Americans were treated to a series of outstanding TV and print advertisements from US telecommunications giant AT&T. In a series of moodily lit vignettes, viewers were presented with questions like the one above, followed with a confident, emphatic: "You will".
From GPS navigation to Salik-like contactless road tolls to video calls at bedtime, the ads projected an inevitable future; hardly exponential, but fulfilling the excited promise of what Al Gore called the "information superhighway".
These ads were an early echo of a quality the modern world has come to overvalue: certainty.
Ironclad predictions about tomorrow have been the currency of Silicon Valley and all its cultural kin for decades. The statements, like those we have heard from futurati past and present, such as Steve Jobs and Elon Musk, are future-shaping – laying out a narrative or roadmap of the imagination for society to follow. These forecasts provide a north star to aim for. In the UAE in particular, such strategic visions have been central to national growth and the development of new industries, supporting businesses large and small.
Herein lies the challenge. These visions can help entrepreneurs and leaders alike steer strongly towards a preferred destination without distraction, while also generating confidence in their viability. Yet, they can also obscure the type of peripheral vision that is needed to see threats and new opportunities that arise over time. Defining the probable – that which we believe will happen in the worldly sense – too strongly can lessen a sensitivity to the possible – that which might happen, based on what we know today. An overfocus on the probable (or what futurists call the "official future" - that is, the tomorrow we commonly agree on and take as guaranteed) can often shift resources away from sensing the emergent signals of risk and opportunity that tell us when to recalculate our course.
For small businesses in particular, the definition of entrepreneurship built on such linear focus on mission has become part of the cultural DNA of start-up life. Whole sectors are seeded around the idea that X future will happen. Financiers and potential partners favour small businesses that give off an air of certainty. This dynamic has bred a kind of me-tooism in start-ups that gives us a world of business model clones – such as, “it’s Uber-for-X".
In a more stable, clear environment, an adherence to linearity may work for a while, but in an uncertain landscape where many accepted factors have been swept aside, and new forces emerge at whiplash speed, a different approach is needed: one where uncertainty is seen not as negative, but as possibility, or opportunity space.
Rather than punishing the lack of hard data about the future, or dismissing fuzzy insights as dubious and only clinging to what is quantifiable or deemed “accurate", the need has never been greater for entrepreneurs (in both small businesses and major enterprises) to explore the counterfactual, dive into white space, and question the historically accepted “future". This is more easily said than done, however. Making this kind of shift requires three important ingredients: a different risk culture, broadly accepted models of exploration, and better “sensing” of emerging signals.
Culture is the place to start, not end. Working comfortably with uncertainty is particularly tough in environments that reward provable metrics, and rely only on key performance indicators, or KPIs. These environments seek to reduce risk to a footnote or line-item in a ledger, and reward accordingly. I have been approached many times by professionals in workshops who understand and embrace new ways of exploring future opportunities, but fear that their managers, or their managers’ managers, will reject these practices as inconclusive or not fully evidenced-based, and therefore wasteful or wrong. For meaningful experimentation to take place, people need to sense they have the breathing space to do so, whether from organisational management, funding bodies, or partners. The expectations are set from the top.
Having common language for exploration is vital when working in less well-defined territory. Even if an emerging signal of opportunity or risk cannot be measured or priced yet, being able to communicate whether something is a new business model, or a rapidly shifting consumer behaviour, or a new piece of technology, is important. Similarly, establishing definitions for concepts that are easy to throw around, but hard to pin down, like “trend” or “scenario", can build confidence in more open discovery.
Finally, having a good radar is critical to small enterprises looking for new spaces to grow. This does not just mean having a nose for business opportunities, but a capacity to sense change in the wind, whether that is an emergent but vague risk (such as, say, a flu-like illness in a large city half a world away), or a subtle change in the competitive landscape that might be a large window of opportunity soon. Even as an organisation is “laser-focused” on the strategic goal, it still must be able to see when the terrain is shifting, even if that change seems small.
Today, everyone has to squeeze more out of less, and do so in a turbulent environment. This means using uncertainty as a creative material, looking into the hidden or obscured areas of possibility, and building or re-visiting the capacity to landscape ahead. Real future-shaping is taking the little-known, perhaps low-probability trends and exploring them to find hidden pathways, by seeding intellectual resources, encouraging our inherent future curiosity, and cultivating a more risk-friendly culture.
Scott Smith is managing partner of Changeist, a future foresight consultancy, and, with Madeline Ashby, author of the upcoming book How to Future: Leading and Sense-making in an Age of Hyperchange
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Results
2.15pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Arrab, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mahaleel, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel.
3.15pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum handicap (TB) Dh200,000 2,000m; Winner: Dolmen, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
3.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Amang Alawda, Sandro Paiva, Bakhit Al Ketbi.
4.15pm: The Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 1,200m; Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
4.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: Al Jazi, Jesus Rosales, Eric Lemartinel.
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
The bio
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France
Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines
Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.
Favourite Author: My father for sure
Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 502hp at 7,600rpm
Torque: 637Nm at 5,150rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh317,671
On sale: now
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
TCL INFO
Teams:
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
When December 14-17
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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About Okadoc
Date started: Okadoc, 2018
Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Healthcare
Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth
Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February
Investors: Undisclosed
The biog
Name: Marie Byrne
Nationality: Irish
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption
Book: Seagull by Jonathan Livingston
Life lesson: A person is not old until regret takes the place of their dreams
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
